Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Pitts' utilization near the end-zone is really what keeps his Fantasy stock afloat. No one should expect the Falcons to take many deep shots with him after he couldn't connect on five such tries last week. No one should expect the Falcons to throw 28 times as they did in their OT win over the Panthers in Week 8, either. Pitts remains a starter in Fantasy but is more of a touchdown-or-bust TE, just as he's pretty much been all year. I'd rather start Pat Freiermuth, Greg Dulcich and Gerald Everett.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Pitts had the makings of a dynamite Fantasy outing with a 30.4% target share and five targets of 20-plus Air Yards. He had a 29.7 ADOT (average depth of target), highest in 2022 by just over 9.0 yards. The results, as you may already know, were awful as Pitts dropped one throw, had another fall in front of his hands and three more thrown over his head.
- PITTS: The deeper targets were something new for Pitts, but if you consider that he's seen five end-zone targets including two that were negated by penalties in his past three games, he's definitely seeing an uptick in the kind of looks from Marcus Mariota that we should embrace.
- WEEK 8: Pitts had his best game of the year versus Carolina, catching 5-of-9 targets for 80 yards including a two-yard touchdown. It's his only game in his past five with more than 10 PPR points. He dominated their zone coverage, save for when he beat a defender on a short route for his score.
- PANTHERS: Have been among the league's more zone-heavy defenses, though it's worth noting they played their lowest rate of zone coverage last week against the Bengals and got ripped on the scoreboard. Between that and Mariota's inferior QB rating versus zone coverage (over 30 points lower compared to man), they should be expected to revert back to zone, which would in theory be good for Pitts.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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Allgeier isn't expected to lead the Falcons in rushing, but he is coming off a game where he split snaps pretty evenly with Cordarrelle Patterson and was stunningly efficient. I always like to use running backs on Thursday nights, especially against tired defenses that got stomped four days prior. Allgeier is a good flex I'd use in non-PPR over Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Robinson, Taysom Hill and Brian Robinson.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Displayed excellent power, balance and sneaky good speed against a terrible Chargers run defense. Allgeier averaged 9.9 yards over his 10 carries, including 6.0 yards per rush against eight-man boxes and 6.7 yards after contact per rush.
- ALLGEIER: Week 9 was his first game with more than 3.5 yards per rush since Week 4. He also has at least 10 carries in six straight games.
- WEEK 8: Allgeier scored on a 25-yard catch-and-run from Mariota, a random play that boosted his overall totals to 85 total yards on 17 touches. Cordarrelle Patterson (who is a must-start) didn't play in the game.
- PANTHERS: Officially have allowed the third-most Fantasy points to rival RBs this season after Joe Mixon went bonkers last Sunday. Before Week 9, the Panthers allowed 4.4 yards per rush, allowed 22 runs of 10-plus yards and missed 35 tackles. None of those numbers are particularly good.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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I'm rolling the dice for a second-straight game on Marshall as a flex play, albeit not with a high ceiling. His end-zone targets are a huge selling point, plus he's a lock to never see double coverage. The list of names I'd sit for Marshall isn't jaw-dropping -- guys like Allen Robinson, Michael Gallup and Robert Tonyan -- but Marshall is widely available and not bad if you're in a pinch.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Marshall had a 20% target share and two more end-zone targets (both from Baker Mayfield). He caught one of those end-zone balls to salvage his stat line (3-53-1). This was in an especially favorable matchup against a depleted Bengals secondary.
- PAST THREE WEEKS: Marshall is up to five end-zone targets and a 20.7 target share. Most of that is from P.J. Walker, who is starting this week.
- WEEK 8: Marshall's 4-87-0 stat line against the Falcons was flex-worthy, but disappointing considering he had nine targets from Walker.
- FALCONS: Gave up 106 yards and an 80% catch rate to Josh Palmer last week. Palmer is the closest thing the Chargers have to an outside receiver like Marshall (D.J. Moore tends to play more in the slot than Marshall). Atlanta's secondary is missing several starters, just as they were two games ago.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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It feels like Smith has a great shot for a stat line close to what he had against the Giants -- just over 200 yards passing with a couple of scores and some rushing yards. Given how quarterbacks are in 2022, that's enough to call him a top-10 passer, even if the Seahawks are unapologetically a run-first offense (bottom-12 in pass rate). Smith is a start ahead of Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray, both of whom are in tough matchups, but not ahead of high-upside passers Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Cardinals pressured Smith on 42.1% of his dropbacks and allowed one completion of 16-plus Air Yards (on a double-pass, no less), and Smith still smashed for 275-2-1 with 38 rush yards. It's the first time this season that Smith had multiple touchdowns while also being pressured at least 37% of the time, and his second straight game with over 200 yards and multiple touchdowns despite one completion of 16-plus Air Yards. He only attempted two passes of 16-plus Air Yards. It was also his first game with two touchdown passes from inside the 10.
- SMITH: Handled pass rush pressure better and practically didn't even bother to throw downfield. It's a stark change from how he got numbers earlier in the year. Smith is on a roll.
- BUCCANEERS: Are among the top 10 in the league in blitz rate but haven't gotten even a 30% pressure rate in three of their past four games. There is a curious wrinkle: The Bucs blitzed at the lowest rate of the year against the Rams last week and still pressured Matthew Stafford nearly 40% of the time, a high mark for them. That may have had more to do with the Rams offensive line than anything else.
- BUCCANEERS: Have let up multiple passing touchdowns in three of their past four but have kept all but one quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) to under 250 yards. That includes their recent spell where their secondary was missing key players.
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
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It's hard to get excited for Brady when he's been underperforming for five straight games. The silver lining remains the same, though: The Bucs throw more than any team in football and Brady is far from washed as far as accuracy and arm strength go. He just wants to get the ball out ASAP, ruining his chances at making big plays. He's startable but not with optimism. Use him over Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson, but definitely go with Geno Smith or Dak Prescott over him.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: There were no almost-touchdowns we can lament -- the Scotty Miller end-zone drop was effectively replaced by the Cade Otton touchdown minutes later. Nothing else came close as the Bucs offense ran three red-zone plays in the first 57 minutes of the game.
- BRADY: Had his lowest ADOT of the season (4.67 yards) and continued to get rid of the ball quickly to negate any pass rush. This has become commonplace for Brady, but it hasn't stopped him from ranking third in pass attempts of 16-plus Air Yards this season (and 20th in completion rate on those throws). He only tried four such throws in Week 9.
- SEAHAWKS: Rank just below league-average in pass rush pressure rate and third-lowest in blitz rate. Not that this matters against the Bucs -- Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly to avoid getting hit (just 14 sacks on him this year). But it probably means the Bucs will see a lot of zone defenses with four-man pressures.
- BRADY: Against this specific coverage and lack of blitzing, Brady ranks outside the top-12 among qualifying quarterbacks in completion rate, TD rate, QB rating and ADOT. He still averages under 2.5 seconds per throw.
- SEAHAWKS: Gave up 21-plus Fantasy points to Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray over the past two weeks. Both threw two touchdowns, had at least 20 rushing yards and lost a fumble. The only other quarterback to fare as well or better against Seattle was Jared Goff in a Week 4 shootout.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
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If you're cool with Godwin hitting 14 PPR points as Rondale Moore did against Seattle last week, start him. Hey, that's flex territory after all. But no one should expect a breakout game given how ineffective Godwin's been, especially near the end zone. I'd rather start DeVonta Smith, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Rondale Moore.
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Dave's Notebook:
- GODWIN: You don't need these stats to know Godwin hasn't been right this season, but here goes: Despite a solid 24.3% target per route run rate, Godwin has averaged 9.6 yards per catch, an ADOT of 5.54 yards, 1.51 yards per route run and 4.90 YAC/reception. Each of these four stats ranks outside of the top 65 among qualifying receivers. The lack of end-zone targets, much fewer touchdowns, is a further frustration.
- SEAHAWKS: Rank fourth in lowest catch rate allowed to opposing slot receivers and have yielded three touchdowns to slot guys this season (none since Week 5). The Seahawks have let up 12.36 yards per catch and 5.82 YAC/reception (yards after catch per reception, a stat that measures how many yards a receiver gets on average post-reception before getting tackled) to slots. They're actually far more proficient against outside receivers.
- LAST WEEK: The Seahawks held Arizona slot receiver Rondale more to an 8-68-0 stat line on 10 targets. Moore is more explosive than Godwin, yet the Hawks only registered one missed tackle against him and kept him from getting a lot of positive yards after the catch. They were even better against Wan'Dale Robinson two weeks ago.
- GODWIN: Does not have more than 15 PPR points, or more than nine non-PPR points, in a game this season. He's had or topped 13 PPR points twice.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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The matchup really isn't that bad for Thielen. The worry is that he'll be deployed similarly to last week and may have to deal with more volatility. Losing middle-field targets to T.J. Hockenson all but shrinks his Fantasy baseline for a decent game. I don't mind starting Thielen as a flex, especially in PPR, but I'm nervous he'll need to come through on deep plays, which this defense is good at not allowing.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: T.J. Hockenson's Vikings debut made for some unforeseen circumstances for Thielen. He set season-highs in yards per catch, ADOT and YAC/reception despite catching just three passes. He was targeted downfield a heck of a lot more than usual and even came up with a 2022-best 36-yard gain on a deep over route. He got open versus zone coverage, rarely against man coverage, and he was bypassed for Hockenson on a slew of plays because Hockenson was getting open faster at a farther distance downfield. This included in the red zone, where Thielen had one target to Hockenson's three.
- THIELEN: Has at least seven targets in each of his past seven games, which is nice. He does not have more than 72 yards in any of those games and has scored in two of them.
- BILLS: Have fallen closer to the middle of the NFL in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers. Each of six enemy receivers with at least seven targets against them has at least 10 PPR points; four have 14-plus.
- BILLS: Known as one of the league's zone-heaviest defenses on the year but played way less zone (under 60% of snaps) against the Chiefs and Jets in Weeks 6 and 9 respectively. They might opt to play more zone this week figuring it's safer for their cornerbacks to not allow the big play while they can still get pressure on Kirk Cousins without blitzing.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Matchups like this one are too few and far between for Goff, which is why you should try and take advantage. Chicago's defense is in trouble not only without Robert Quinn, but also linebacker Roquan Smith dropping into coverage. I expect Goff to not only throw well in the game but potentially throw a good amount because the Bears offense should put points on the board. He's in my rankings ahead of Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.
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Dave's Notebook:
- BEARS: Have let up at least 29 Fantasy points to a quarterback in each of their past two and 20-plus to a quarterback in 5 of their past 8 games.
- BEARS: In two games since the Robert Quinn trade, the Bears have maxed out with a 25.8% pass rush pressure rate. That's low. They also have exactly one sack in two games. Last week Tua Tagovailoa averaged 2.73 seconds per pass attempt.
- GOFF: When he hasn't been pressured this season, he's completed 69% of his throws for 7.78 yards per attempt, a 5.6% TD rate and a 104.3 QB rating. His three touchdowns in his past two games all came when he wasn't pressured. He had 7.86 yards per attempt, too.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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It's too good of a matchup for Mooney for Fantasy folks to ignore. Their pass rush may be starting to get going, but quarterbacks have been putting up nice numbers against Detroit (when they haven't been throwing sloppy interceptions). There should be solid opportunities for Mooney to have a good game, if not a great one. I'd take the chance on Mooney over DeVonta Smith, Diontae Johnson and Chris Godwin.
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Dave's Notebook:
- MOONEY: Since the Bears' mini-bye (past three games), Mooney has seen a 26.8% target share, 11.07 yards per catch, 1.89 yards per route run, an 8.63 ADOT, 5.0 YAC/reception, two red-zone targets, three end-zone targets and a 30% explosive play rate (16-plus yards). The only numbers that are down from his time with Justin Fields in 2021 are his yards per catch (was 14.9) and his ADOT (was 13.5).
- MOONEY: Has 12-plus PPR points in three of his past four (17 last week).
- LAST WEEK: In his first game with Chase Claypool on the field, Mooney saw a ton of short throws but did come through on a fade from 16 yards out for a touchdown.
- LIONS: Rank in the bottom-10 in catch rate (66.5%), yards per catch (14.01), missed tackles (eight) and completions of 20-plus yards (22) to wide receivers. They allowed "only" 172 yards and a touchdown to Packers receivers in Week 9 after two Green Bay wideouts left early with injuries and another receiver had a score called short of the end zone. The week before they let up 336 yards and two touchdowns to the speedy Dolphins wide receivers.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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Kmet isn't quite a must-start tight end, but he warrants attention as the Bears have slyly added him into their passing game over the past couple of weeks. Think of him as a low-volume touchdown-or-bust option who should start ahead of Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant or Dawson Knox, but not ahead of Kyle Pitts or Mike Gesicki.
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Dave's Notebook:
- FIRST SEVEN GAMES: Kmet's target share was 13.6% with 2.6 targets per game, two red-zone targets, no end-zone targets and obviously no touchdowns.
- PAST TWO GAMES: Kmet's target share was 16% with 4.0 targets per game, four red-zone targets, two end-zone targets and three touchdowns (all in the red zone).
- LIONS: A tight end has at least nine PPR points in each of their past five games.
- LIONS: On the season, tight ends have caught 77.6% of their targets against Detroit for 11.16 yards per catch and 5.67 YAC/reception. All three are in the bottom-10 (the catch rate is bottom-three). All five of the touchdowns tight ends have scored on the Lions have come from 20 yards or closer.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Jeudy's speed, elusiveness and versatility have helped him claim the No. 1 receiver role in the Broncos offense. The matchup is favorable for all Broncos pass catchers, but Jeudy's the one who's seen the most looks from Russell Wilson in their past four games. I'll start him coming off the bye over DeVonta Smith, Chris Godwin and Courtland Sutton.
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Dave's Notebook:
- JEUDY: Has at least a 20% target share from Russell Wilson in each of his past five games, including a studly 26.9% share in Week 8 against the Jaguars. He's earning them thanks to his speed and versatility in the offense (has primarily lined up in the slot but gets put in motion a lot and can line up wide).
- JEUDY: Has 15-plus PPR points in each of his past two and three of his past five.
- TITANS: On the season have allowed a 72.9% catch rate and 12.16 yards per catch to slot receivers, which is right about league average. Tennessee has done a good job of limiting yards after catch (3.63 YAC/reception to slot guys is third-lowest) but they've missed seven tackles versus inside receivers this year, which is eighth-most. Jeudy has proven this year that a missed tackle against him could be big trouble.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Averaging 7.0 targets per game in his past two, it's unlikely the Broncos are going to come out of their bye week and not keep Dulcich involved. In fact, his arrival has cost Courtland Sutton some serious target share (28% in the five games without Dulcich, 16.7% in the past three with Dulcich). Tight ends that can provide good yardage and have a shot to score are tough to find, but easy to start.
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Dave's Notebook:
- DULCICH: Fantasy managers should know that the rookie tight end has contributed at least 11 PPR points in each of his three starts this season. His max? 12 PPR points, but that's not so bad considering the state of tight ends around the league.
- DULCICH: Has quickly become a go-to guy for Wilson not only as a short-area outlet but as a sneaky quick deep threat. His 13.18 ADOT is higher than Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy's. Defenses have had trouble keeping up with him given the rest of the Broncos receivers, and Wilson seems to get into a groove when targeting him.
- WILSON: In Dulcich's three games, Wilson has targeted him on 17.7% of his throws, including north of 19% in each of his past two games.
- TITANS: Only two tight ends have posted 8.5 or more Fantasy points in half-PPR against them this season, but they're still giving up a league-average 69.7% catch rate and a bottom-seven 11.78 yards per catch to tight ends on the year.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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The day after Hunt's last game, the Browns could have tried to trade him. They didn't. While they're sure to have some fresh wrinkles on offense coming off the bye week, Fantasy managers should feel relatively good about Hunt's chances to see over 10 touches, if not close to 15 touches like in his last game. If he does, there's hope for double-digit Fantasy points in all formats. He's a low-end starter worth trusting over Khalil Herbert, Brian Robinson and any Broncos running back.
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Dave's Notebook:
- FUN FACT: This is the eighth time in nine editions of Lineup Decisions that I've written about Hunt. I've been incorrect on him once (Week 2) and on target otherwise. As long as you guys want to know what to do with him, I will keep researching him. It's getting easier.
- LAST GAME: Hunt saw a spike in touches even though his playing time stayed under 50% like usual. A dominant win over the Bengals afforded him 15 touches (including four receptions, tying a season high). He remained a fixture on third/fourth downs (9 of 13 such snaps) and played on 3 of 8 snaps inside the 10 (one catch, one carry).
- HUNT: Has averaged 69.3 total yards per game when he has 15 or more touches this season (70, 74, 61 & 72 total yards).
- DOLPHINS: Rank 16th in Fantasy points allowed to RBs, giving up 3.7 yards per carry. They also rank top-6 in yards before contact and yards after contact per rush. All that's cool, but the 10 total touchdowns rushers have accounted for is a bonus for Hunt.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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There's serious risk with starting either Dolphins running back. The argument for Mostert is that he's been with the team and might be their guy at the goal line on top of in the hurry-up offense. Neither should be relied upon to score 10-plus PPR points, but if I had to pick one, it would be Wilson.
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There's serious risk with starting either Dolphins running back. The argument for Wilson is that he acclimated quickly, was the more effective running back last week and did more in the passing game. Neither should be relied upon to score 10-plus PPR points, but if I had to pick one, it would be Wilson.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Wilson was far more effective, averaging 5.67 yards per rush (Mostert had 2.89). He also had the higher avoided tackle rate (33.3%). Wilson averaged way more yards after contact (3.11 to 1.67) and before contact (2.56 to 1.22) per rush than Mostert did. In fact, Wilson's 2.56 yard before contact average was higher than Mostert had in any game this year, which is stunning since Mostert himself has excellent speed.
- USAGE: It did not seem like Mostert nor Wilson had well-defined roles last week, except for Mostert handling every snap in the Dolphins two-minute offense. They didn't quite rotate series -- Wilson started several second-half drives but Mostert would come in for him -- but they seemed to be in and out a good amount. Wilson had more red-zone work but it didn't seem by design, especially since Mostert had the Dolphins' goal-to-go carry from the 1. You should probably expect this unlabeled rotation to continue.
- KEEP IN MIND: The Dolphins rank in the top-10 in pass rate (62.7% of their snaps) and eighth-lowest in running back rush attempts per game (19.0). Since neither back figures to see even 60% of the snaps or even 13 touches from game to game, they're both touchdown-needy players for Fantasy.
- BROWNS: Week 8 was their first game with linebacker Deion Jones playing a full allotment of snaps and the unit was greatly improved, holding the Bengals' RBs to 3.78 yards per carry and 6.18 yards per catch. Before Week 8, the Browns had allowed multiple touchdowns to running backs in four straight games.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
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The Giants don't have anyone else to take those outside receiver snaps away from Slayton. He's done a nice job with them and has emerged as a pretty good flex. I'd chance it with him over George Pickens, Curtis Samuel, Evan Engram and a Dolphins running back in PPR.
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Dave's Notebook:
- SLAYTON: Might be the Giants No. 1 receiver by default. Has six-plus targets in each of his past two games and 3 of his past 4. He's notched at least 11 PPR points in those games.
- TEXANS: Have seen the fewest pass attempts to wide receivers against them this season and as such have allowed the fewest receptions to WRs (less than 10 per game!). However, wideouts are averaging a third-highest 14.51 yards per catch and second-highest 5.30 YAC/reception against them with 12 completions of 16-plus Air Yards against them.
- TEXANS: Nine WRs have had at least six targets against Houston in 2022. Of the nine, six have posted at least 15 PPR points.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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It might be fueled by garbage time, but Lawrence has a pretty good shot to accumulate stats and find a couple of touchdowns in what should amount to a high-passing game at Kansas City. Lawrence is great as a bye-week quarterback but not on the level of Jimmy Garoppolo or Jared Goff. I'd start him over Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Andy Dalton.
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Dave's Notebook:
LAST WEEK: A 5.32 ADOT felt high as Lawrence concentrated on getting the ball out quickly against the Raiders. He had an efficient day (25-of-32 passing for 235 yards) but notched his fifth straight game with one or zero passing touchdowns.
ALSO: Lawrence's ADOT has been below 6.0 yards in three of his past four -- only against the Giants did he try a bunch of deep throws (11.0 ADOT) and his completion percentage was gross (51.2%).
CHIEFS: Before last week when the Titans were forced to start Malik Willis, quarterbacks averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game against Kansas City. Every quarterback had at least two passing touchdowns and all but one (Matt Ryan) had at least 20 Fantasy points.
CHIEFS: On targets thrown under 2.5 seconds, the Chiefs allow a 73.9% catch rate, 8.66 yards per catch and 6.04 YAC/reception. Those are all around league average. But they've given up 10 passing touchdowns on quick throws, third-most in football. That accounts for more than half of their passing touchdowns allowed all year (17).
TWO QBs: Have gotten the ball out under 2.5 seconds on average against the Chiefs this year: Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. Ryan was a fumble shy of 20 Fantasy points in a Colts win; Brady had his best game of the year chasing the scoreboard for three quarters.
LAWRENCE: In three games this year with 40 pass attempts, Lawrence has a total of one passing touchdown and three interceptions. To be fair, he had a 39-attempt game at the Chargers and had three touchdowns, though that feels like a major outlier.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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You're playing with fire if you start Edwards-Helaire. It's pretty clear to see that he's not only NOT the Chiefs' passing-downs back, but part of a committee on run downs. You might assume he's a touchdown-or-bust running back, but he played one snap inside the 10 last week against the Titans and one snap inside the 10 the game prior against the 49ers. Mecole Hardman has played more, had more touches and scored three times inside the 10 in those past two. You simply should not trust Edwards-Helaire until he gets back in the good graces of his coaching staff.
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Dave's Notebook:
LAST WEEK: Had five touches for 19 total yards on 17% of the Chiefs snaps. Keep in mind, this was after their bye week when they may have determined that Edwards-Helaire was no longer a large part of their offense. Game script may have been an issue.
THE GAME BEFORE: Had six touches, all carries, for 32 yards and a touchdown on 27% of the Chiefs snaps. Keep in mind, this was the game where Isiah Pacheco was announced as the starter hours before kickoff. The matchup may have been an issue.
JAGUARS: Have managed to keep rival running backs to 3.8 yards per carry in their past five games, but four have scored. Five backs total have scored at least 10 non-PPR Fantasy points.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
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I overlooked Hardman after Week 6, but not after Week 7. Given all the issues with the Chiefs' run game, it was clear they found an alternative in Hardman, who's become practically automatic near the end zone and also involved when not deep in enemy territory. He's not a slam-dunk starter, but with the Jaguars not expected to slow the Chiefs offense down, Hardman has to be considered a good flex on the hope he can score. I'd start him over Adam Thielen, Kareem Hunt, Kyle Pitts and D'Andre Swift.
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Dave's Notebook:
- HARDMAN: Has a touchdown (or two) along with at least 42 yards in each of his past three games. In those games he's had six red-zone touches and four touches inside of 10 yards, both of which lead all Chiefs. He's basically become their short-yardage goal-line back.
- NOT IN THE RED ZONE: Hardman's production isn't bad! In his past three games, he's had a 25-yard touchdown rush and 11 targets for an 8-114-0 stat line. He has more targets and catches than Marquez Valdes-Scantling inside and outside of the red zone!
- HARDMAN: Actually has 11-plus PPR points in each of his past four.
- JAGUARS: Are league-average in red-zone efficiency, giving up a touchdown on 55.6% of those drives. However, in goal-to-go efficiency, the Jaguars rank ninth-worst with a touchdown scored on 78.6% of those drives. You'll never guess which NFL offense is top-3 in goal-to-go plays per game (of course it's the Chiefs along with the Vikings and Bengals).
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Maybe there's a chance for more targets for Johnson now that the Steelers traded Chase Claypool, but Johnson's low production with Kenny Pickett makes him tough to trust, particularly against a pass defense that should be able to keep Pickett from beating them consistently. Additionally, the Saints run defense has a giant target on its back and figures to get challenged by the Steelers run game, potentially taking chances away from the Steelers receivers. I'd rather start Darius Slayton, Mecole Hardman and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
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Dave's Notebook:
- JOHNSON: On passes from Kenny Pickett this year, Johnson has a 55% catch rate, 8.0 yards per catch, 3.41 YAC/reception and a 2.3% explosive play rate. As recently as Week 8 his routes weren't on point and it led to a pair of interceptions. In fact, three of Pickett's eight interceptions were on throws to Johnson.
- SAINTS: Are expected to dial back their blitz rate after going after Lamar Jackson a ton last week. They're among the lowest-rate blitzers in the league. When he hasn't been blitzed, Pickett has a low QB rating, an ADOT of 7.22 yards, and has tossed all eight of his interceptions.
- SAINTS: Have allowed four 100-yard receivers on the season. Of the four, three had 10-plus targets and averaged at least 14.7 yards per catch. Two other receivers have between 75 and 99 yards in a game against the Saints.
- JOHNSON: Has had 11 or fewer PPR points in five straight games. Not coincidentally, Pickett played at least one half in each game. He hasn't scored yet.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I suspect the Colts will try to get their run game going with interim coach Jeff Saturday leaning on his big men up front. That might limit the number of throws Sam Ehlinger makes, but the ones he does throw to Pittman should be caught. Pittman's PPR profile remains flex-worthy, but in half- and non-PPR he's easy to bench.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WITH EHLINGER: Pittman has a huge 29.4% target share but turned those targets (15) into a 10-75-0 stat line with a crusty 7.07 ADOT. He's run exactly 17 of his 67 routes more than 10 yards downfield.
- PITTMAN: Has more than 12 PPR points in one of his past six games.
- RAIDERS: Rank top-12 in most Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers but rank numero uno in catch rate allowed to wide receivers (70.8%). Their other metrics aren't so horrid, including just 3.91 YAC/reception to receivers with nine missed tackles on the year. They're especially strong against receivers on throws inside of 15 Air Yards, save for a 74.3% catch rate.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Arizona's offensive line is still struggling to create space for its backs and Conner would have to make fresh legs pay off against a Rams defense looking for a rebound after a tough road loss last week. Their run defense has been among the most consistently good parts of their team all year, so it's not unreasonable to think that won't continue. I'd rather start Antonio Gibson, Devin Singletary (especially if Josh Allen doesn't play) and Najee Harris.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Conner was spry in his first game in a month, but not even close to elusive. His best plays involved him staying balanced and fighting through contact to pick up a few extra yards. He was easy for defenders to catch up with, just not easy to take down (4.43 yards after contact per rush last week).
- CONNER: Had 12 touches (five receptions) while assuming 71% of the Cardinals snaps.
- RAMS: Rank seventh in fewest Fantasy points allowed to running backs. They're letting up 4.24 yards per rush to RBs but only three have run for a score against them. Also of note as it relates to Conner, the Rams are seventh-best in yards after contact allowed at 2.75. They've missed just 18 tackles on runs, the second-best mark in the league.
- WEEK 3: Was completely humbled by the Rams, averaging 3.0 yards per rush and 6.0 yards per catch. He totaled 57 yards on 16 touches and scored a nifty eight PPR points.
- HISTORY: Conner was equally inefficient running the ball against L.A. in 2021, but did score two touchdowns in each of two games. He also had at least 20 touches per game.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The safest bet is to expect a solid game from Prescott, but not more than 250 yards, a couple of scores and 20 rush yards. That's still good enough to be a top-10 quarterback. Expect as much, making Prescott a safe start over Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PRESCOTT: Has been efficient in his two games back from injury, completing an awesome 76.9% of his throws, but just for 8.79 yards per attempt and, this is weird, with an 8.79 ADOT. He also has yet to attempt 30 or more passes in a game.
- PRESCOTT: Did use his legs in Week 8, getting 34 yards and a touchdown against Chicago.
- PACKERS: Have blitzed at the third-most rate this season (37.9%) and rank second in pass rush pressure rate. They're likely to keep bringing heat to Prescott but they'll do it without Rashan Gary, who tore his ACL in Week 9. Gary was Green Bay's top-graded pass rusher per Pro Football Focus. Left cornerback Eric Stokes is also out from Green Bay's starting defense.
- PACKERS: Three straight quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against the Packers, but all three failed to get more than 20 Fantasy points (including Josh Allen). In fact, not since Week 1 has a quarterback had over 20 Fantasy points versus Green Bay. But again, that was with Gary (and Stokes) on the field.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
There should be no doubt that Everett will see a fair dose of work from Justin Herbert provided the Chargers' top receivers remain sidelined. But the matchup is a toughie, leaving Everett with the potential of maybe 11 PPR points and six non-PPR points. I'd rather start Dalton Schultz and Greg Dulcich, and even Kyle Pitts in non-PPR.
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Dave's Notebook:
LAST WEEK: Everett was involved in the Chargers offense, but turned eight targets into a disappointing 5-36-0 stat line. L.A. did have four separate drives against the Falcons go into the red zone, but Everett had one target come late from Justin Herbert and go over his head whilst in the end zone.
EVERETT: Hasn't scored in four weeks and has two games with 10-plus PPR points (none more than 13) in matchups he has not scored in this season. He's a lot tougher to ride with in non-PPR because he's never had more than seven points in a game unless he's scored.
49ERS: Have been terrific against tight ends all year. Only in Week 6 did tight ends score on them (their defense was depleted) and only in Weeks 4 and 7 (Tyler Higbee and Travis Kelce) did tight ends have more than three catches or more than 30 yards against them.
49ERS: On the season the Niners have allowed just 8.29 yards per catch and 4.35 YAC/reception to tight ends, both top-three in the league.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Aiyuk simply has too much upside to bench in Fantasy, but the downside is a real factor in this game. If the 49ers run all over the Chargers' weak run defense, there won't be much for Aiyuk to pick up statistically. Deebo Samuel's return may also create a target crunch, particularly since he tends to see a steady target share regardless of game script. I'll take my chances with Aiyuk over Darnell Mooney, DeVonta Smith and Rondale Moore.
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Dave's Notebook:
CHARGERS: Are tops in the league in YAC/reception allowed to wide receivers (3.03) and are top-10 in yards per catch and completions of 20-plus yards allowed.
CHARGERS: However, seven of the nine TDs the Chargers have afforded wide receivers have been from 10-plus yards away from the end zone.
AIYUK: Has three straight games with at least 15 PPR points.
AIYUK: With Jimmy Garoppolo as his quarterback, Aiyuk has a 23.1% target per route run rate, a 68% catch rate, 12.03 yards per catch and three touchdowns -- two from 10-plus yards downfield.
AIYUK: Has eight or more targets in three 49ers losses with Garoppolo at QB, six or fewer targets in the past three 49ers wins, each by two-plus scores. The 49ers are seven-point favorites.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The hunch is Gibson builds on his 58% snap share from last week and maintains a good-sized role on passing downs, but this Eagles defense is good at taking down running backs through the air. I'd expect 10 PPR points from Gibson in Week 10 and be surprised if he comes through for more. I'd rather start David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt and Khalil Herbert.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WEEK 3: Gibson scored on the Eagles and only had one catch as he was in a primary rushing role. That's changed since Brian Robinson's return to the lineup -- Gibson's become the Commanders' main passing-downs back.
- GIBSON: Has an 81.6% catch rate on the year, but when it's a target from Heinicke, Gibson's caught it 85.7% of the time for 7.25 yards per catch. He's seen three red-zone targets and two end-zone tosses from Heinicke.
- GIBSON: Has a 15.9% target share with Taylor Heinicke, but he's actually drawing a target on 32.6% of his routes run. Gibson has run 43 routes in his past three games.
- EAGLES: Opposing running backs are averaging 6.5 targets per game against the Eagles, but they're not doing a ton with them. Philly ranks top-five in yards per catch and YAC/reception allowed to running backs this year with a just-below league-average 75.0% catch rate allowed.
- EAGLES: So not surprisingly, no running back has more than 32 receiving yards against Philadelphia this year, and only two have more than four receptions. Also, the only running back to score through the air on Philly was a fullback on a trick play (Derek Watt, Week 8).
- HISTORY: In four career games against the Eagles, Gibson has never had more than six grabs or 39 yards.
