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Kentucky Derby wide open: Five could be favorites

Get ready for the 152nd Run for the Roses later today with a deep dive into this year's Kentucky Derby. There's no clear favorite.

Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby wide open: Five could be favorites
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Matt Severance

#1

+1264

(75%)

42-14 in Last 56 MLB ML Picks

MLB
BAL @ NYY • Sat 1:35pm

NYY

-150

Money Line

Picked: May 2 @ 6:02am

Analysis

Can't say I like this as much as I did yesterday's game, but Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has not been sharp this season. Consider a Ben Rice Over 1.5 total bases prop (3-for-5 with a dinger off Bradish career). What I may do is have a little fun and play this with a Kentucky Derby choice -- and it won't be favored Renegade on the post. The betting favorite on race day hasn’t won at Churchill Downs since 2018 (Justify). I like Further Ado at 6/1. There is my horse racing knowledge for 2026, but you will definitely want to read our picks from the excellent Gene Menez, Jeff Hochman and others for that. They seem to win every year.

Matchup
Prop Bet Guy

+39

(57%)

4-3 in Last 7 MLB Player Props Picks

MLB
TOR @ MIN • Sat 2:10pm

D. Cease

Under 17.5

-137

Outs Recorded

Picked: May 2 @ 10:22am

Analysis

Caesar’s / MGM. As solid as Dylan Cease has been in his first season as a Blue Jay (2.87 ERA and 3.25 xERA), he has only finished 6 innings in one of his six starts. He’s highly inefficient with his pitch count, needing 4.36 per plate appearance, which is the most amongst qualifiers. He’ll face a patient Twins lineup that sees the 11th most pitches per plate appearance, draws the fifth highest walk rate, and has the ninth lowest chase rate. If they can string together anything offensively, keeping Cease under this line should be no issue. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs for a partial unit.

Matchup
Adam Thompson

#4

+816.5

(73%)

19-7 in Last 26 NBA Picks

NBA
PHI @ BOS • Sat 7:30pm

PHI +8

-110

Spread

Picked: May 1 @ 2:36pm

Analysis

I’m not entirely convinced that Boston wins this one outright. Philly has a three-headed monster going on right now: Tyrese Maxey had 30 in Game 5, Joel Embiid had 33 in Game 6, even Paul George had 23 in one of them and 16/9/7 in the other. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown aren’t shooting well right now, Philly has really shortened its bench, Boston seems like it’s trying to figure it out.

Matchup
Prop Bet Guy

+401

(83%)

5-1 in Last 6 NBA Player Props Picks

NBA
PHI @ BOS • Sat 7:30pm

V. Edgecombe

Over 5.5

-114

Rebounds

Picked: May 1 @ 10:26pm

Analysis

FanDuel. VJ Edgecombe leads the 76ers in total rebounds these playoffs, averaging 7.0 per game, and clearing this line in four of six games. It’s a great matchup for the rookie as the Celtics shoot a ton of three-pointers, which typically produce longer rebound chances, a plus for wings, such as Edgecombe. VJ is also not typically matched up defensively against Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, leaving him free to crash. Look for the rookie to contribute on the glass in Game 7.

Matchup
Prop Bet Guy

+39

(57%)

4-3 in Last 7 MLB Player Props Picks

MLB
NYM @ LAA • Sat 9:38pm

N. McLean

Over 6.5

-152

Pitcher Strikeouts

Picked: May 2 @ 8:42am

Analysis

FanDuel. This is a great spot to back the Mets rookie. Nolan McLean has racked up 45 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings, clearing this line in 5/6 starts. His advanced stats tell the part too - his called plus swinging strike rate of 32% is sixth highest amongst qualified pitchers, with six pitches in which he’s able to produce strikeouts. It’s an ideal matchup against the Angels who’ve come out of a hot streak and are K’ing at a 30% rate with a .641 OPS against righties the last two weeks. McLean will also see 5-6 righties, which is his better split (42% K% and a .201 wOBA). The juice is worth the squeeze at 6.5, as I have him projected at 8 K’s.

Matchup