Complete Fantasy Football RB position primer: Rankings, tiers, salary cap values, more

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This is a precarious time for the running back position. Even the superstars are being treated like they are expendable and replaceable, which has led to a situation where Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and Josh Jacobs are all, in some form or fashion, holding out from training camp for a new contract, while former stars like Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt don't even have jobs.

And even in Fantasy, we're starting to see that reflected. As Heath Cummings points out in his RB Preview piece Monday, there are just a few backs you can realistically project for 300-plus carries these days, and not many more who are likely going to catch 50-plus passes, which has led to more and more drafters going with a zero-RB approach in drafts.

And it's a viable strategy. I mean, it always has been, but as the historically productive 2017 rookie class – Cook, Fournette, and Hunt all hail from that class, as do Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara, among others – ages out, the number of sure-fire, first-round caliber backs looks thinner than ever. Why not load up on multiple high-end options at WR, or snag an elite TE or QB, and take your chances with RBs later on?

Of course, I also think a Robust RB approach is also viable – in my FLEX League draft this weekend, I paired Travis Kelce and Jalen Hurts with Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon, and I actually loved how my team ended up. You're going to have to hammer WR hard – I spent my Round 5 through 9 picks on the position – but if you draft right, it could really work out.

But a Hero-RB build is probably the right play. It has been for the past few years, and it probably remains so. Early-round RBs remain arguably the best bets you can make in Fantasy, and locking in one of them still allows you to dip into the elite pool at the other positions without sacrificing too much of the 300-point upside the high-end RBs bring to the table.

No matter which approach you choose, you've got to pick the right players. Last week, I broke down every team's running back depth chart, and in today's newsletter, I'm going even deeper into the position. I'll have a breakdown of the WR position for you tomorrow, with TE up after that before getting into the first big preseason weekend of the season. Things will continue to shift over the next few weeks, and we'll be here to make sure you've got everything you need to build a championship roster, but first, let's make sure we've got a solid foundation.

Here's how RB looks for 2023:

The State of the RB position

When I took a look at the state of the QB position Monday, I did so by zooming out, and comparing last year's draft prices for the position to this year's. I did that because quarterbacks, especially the first eight or nine off the board, are being drafted well ahead of where they were a year ago – sometimes multiple rounds ahead.

That's not quite the same situation at running back. If anything, with QBs being pushed up the board and some of the elite wide receivers going earlier, running backs are, on the whole, just a bit cheaper than they've been in the past.

Which is probably how it should be. The first two or three rounds of drafts have historically been the best times to draft running backs, with bust rates spiking and hit rates dropping precipitously around the fourth round, historically – the "RB Dead Zone" you've surely heard so much about by now, and if you haven't, this piece from 2019 remains very relevant.

Now, just because those Dead Zone RBs might be cheaper doesn't change that they aren't great bets – RBs ranked, let's say 20th and below at the position tend to hit at fairly low rates, historically. But it's a little easier to stomach those bets when they cost a sixth-round pick, rather than a fourth-rounder.

Last week, I went through every team's backfield, breaking down where the depth chart stood for all 32 as of the early part of training camp, but today, I'm going to approach it from a slightly different angle. In today's, I will break every player/team situation down by how we expect them to be used – three-down backs, workhorse rushers, backfields-by-committee, etc.

Between that and last week's breakdown, you should have a very good sense of how the RB position stands up. Now, you've just got to decide which strategy you want to follow.

These are the guys who have no question about their role, at least to start the season.

Clear Three-Down Backs

Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson*, Najee Harris, Alexander Mattison, James Conner

*For what it's worth, if Jacobs doesn't report to Raiders camp, that looks like a clear committee, with Zamir White taking on early downs and Ameer Abdullah handling passing situations.

**The Patriots have been linked to multiple veteran running backs in the free agent market, and while Stevenson would likely remain the starter in any case, adding a Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook would muddy the waters considerably.

Clear Lead Backs, Iffy Pass-Catching Roles

The road to a top-12 finish is paved with touchdowns for this group – or an unexpected passing game role. I think Chubb and Sanders could conceivably end up in the first group, and are my favorites here to target.

Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Walker, JK Dobbins, Cam Akers

Clear 1a Backs

At least in a few of these situations – Buffalo and Kansas City, specifically – there are some questions about how clear the edge is. For the other names listed, you can definitely make a case they belong in the first group, though with Williams and Hall, how they come back from their respective torn ACLs will determine how much their teams lean on them.

Breece Hall, Aaron Jones, Javonte Williams, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook

Clear 1b Backs

These are the backs who have clear stand-alone value as the likely No. 2 on their team. They are backups, but they aren't bench warmers – that's a key distinction. I could see a case for names like Jaylen Warren, Elijah Mitchell, Gus Edwards, Zach Charbonnet, Jamaal Williams and Tank Bigsby ending up here, as well as whichever Lions and Eagles RB ends up being the second option, but for now, it's a short list. Camp should clear some of that stuff up.

AJ Dillon, Samaje Perine

Ambiguous Backfields

Ambiguity isn't a bad thing, to be clear. It just means we don't yet know how playing time and touches will be distributed. In Miami and Chicago's situations, pretty much everyone in those backfields are going outside of the top 100 in ADP, so just pick your favorite and hope it pans out. With Detroit and Philadelphia, there's a clear favorite in the eyes of the Fantasy community – Jahmyr Gibbs (20.0 ADP) ahead of David Montgomery (38.7) and D'Andre Swift (40.0) ahead of Rashaad Penny (52.7) – and until we get concrete evidence that the teams view them similarly, I think I prefer deferring to the cheaper option. That being said, if I were going to make the leap for one of the higher-priced guys, it would be Gibbs, the elite pass-catcher whose team invested an early first-round pick in.

Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Eagles

Likely Committees

Even if someone emerges as the lead back in any of these backfields, we're likely to see multiple backs used consistently in all of them.

Bears, Lions, Packers, Chiefs*, Dolphins, Bills, Eagles, Commanders

*I might argue the Chiefs also belong in the "ambiguous backfield" category, though I'd prefer to wait until Isiah Pacheco is 100% to see how they're using him before I make that call. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could still have a role here, and undrafted rookie Deneric Prince is drawing some positive reviews out of camp. Still, I'll defer to Pacheco, who hasn't been cleared yet following offseason shoulder surgery.

Meet The Rookies

Earlier in the offseason, Dave Richard profiled the rookies at every position. Here's who you need to know about the top five from this year's rookie class::

Bijan Robinson, Falcons – No. 8 overall

Draft outlook: The majority of Fantasy managers won't hesitate to take Robinson with a top-10 overall pick. Multiple people in every league will view Robinson similarly to how they viewed Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley when they were rookies and grab him as high as second overall. That makes for lofty expectations, but five of the past seven running backs taken with a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft have finished as top-10 options on a per-game basis in PPR.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions – No. 12 overall

Draft outlook: Expect a bunch of Fantasy managers to remember D'Andre Swift's 13.7 PPR average from last year and assume that Gibbs can hit at least that mark. If he does, then he's easily a No. 2 Fantasy running back. Thing is, Swift met that mark while exceeding 10 touches in just five games. If Gibbs earns more work (and stays healthy), then he could be incredible. Bank on him being so popular that he's snagged between 35th and 45th in PPR leagues and 10 spots later in non-PPR leagues.

De'Von Achane, Dolphins – No. 84 overall

Draft outlook: If Achane shines in training camp and the Dolphins don't add any further competition, he'll have a shot at being their busiest back in 2023. Similarly, his stock will plummet if he can't deliver the lightning on a weekly basis. His upside makes him worthy of a pick around 100th overall in regular seasonal leagues and in Best Ball formats..

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks – No. 52 overall

Draft outlook: Everyone soured on Charbonnet after the draft because he'll share with Walker. That figures to crash his ADP and lock him into a pick in Round 8 or later. But if he can do the things that Walker wasn't good at last year (catching the ball, scoring in short yardage) then he'll be one of the best value RBs you could possibly take in your drafts. He's a must-get if you take Walker with a top-50 pick.

Tank Bigsby, Jaguars – No. 88

Draft outlook: Late-round flier worthy since he sets up as a feature back if Etienne misses significant playing time, and he may even score in games Etienne is healthy for. He's one to check on before going into your drafts.

Sleepers, breakouts, and busts

Sleeper: Antonio Gibson, Commanders – Gibson saw his role dramatically diminished in the second half of last season as Brian Robinson's role grew, though I think a number of lower-body injuries, including a foot injury that ultimately required surgery after the season, probably played a bigger role than we knew at the time. Gibson's career has been defined by cycles of hype and disappointment, so I'm taking all of the talk about him being a "matchup nightmare" with the grain of salt they deserve. That being said, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's offense is expected to feature the running backs in the passing game plenty, and Gibson is the only back on the roster who had more than nine targets last season. Could he earn 65-70 targets while still getting close to 10 carries per game? That seems reasonable, and it could make him a must-start PPR back if things break right.

Breakout: Joe Mixon, Bengals – Mixon is set up to have maybe the best season of his career, so yes, a 27-year-old, former first-round Fantasy pick can be a breakout, thank you very much. There was real concern that the Bengals would cut Mixon for the salary cap savings, but that's off the table, and with Samaje Perine out of the picture, there isn't much behind him on the depth chart – there's Trayveon Williams, a former sixth-round pick with 47 career carries, and Chase Brown, a fifth-round rookie – so Mixon seems likely to see 250-plus carries if he stays healthy. But where the breakout would come from is in the passing game, as he had a career-high 60 receptions despite missing three games last season. Add in that he had 31 touches inside the 10-yard line last season, the third-most in the league, and somehow had just seven touchdowns, and it's not hard to see how Mixon could very easily end up as a top-five Fantasy RB.

Bust: D'Andre Swift, Eagles – I think there's a perception among a lot of Fantasy players and analysts that Philadelphia is a great place for running back production, but that really wasn't the case. In fact, they produced the second-fewest Fantasy points for running backs in the league in 2022, ahead of only the Bears. Swift is a terrific playmaker, but he hasn't exactly been a great rusher, especially relative to teammate Rashaad Penny (one of my sleeper picks in yesterday's newsletter). I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles started throwing to their running backs a bit more now that they have Swift, but I would be pretty shocked if he even came close to last year's 70 targets (in 14 games) – the Eagles had just 61 targets to their running backs all season! I'm starting to think Penny is just going to open the season as the lead back for the Eagles, and while Swift will have a role, I just don't think there's enough of one to make him a consistent starting option for Fantasy.

RB Tiers

Here's how Dave is breaking down the top tiers at RB. For the rest, and his thoughts on the position, head here:

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard
Tier 2: Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs
Tier 3: Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris
Tier 4: Aaron Jones, James Conner, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Dameon Pierce, Alexander Mattison, Kenneth Walker III