I feel smart for taking the San Francisco 49ers to best the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13, and taking the Los Angeles Rams to down the Cleveland Browns. Also, the Atlanta Falcons to cover against the struggling New York Jets was easy money. However, I felt robbed when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn't cover vs. the lowly Carolina Panthers, and then the Jacksonville Jaguars were somehow upset by Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals. Obviously there's a looming quarterback controversy in Cincy.
Week 14 looks just about as gross as any week I can recall. It's the backup quarterback bowl! By my count, 12 teams could be starting different quarterbacks on Sunday than they started Week 1. At least Eagles-Cowboys should be awesome.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 30-32-3
Overall ATS record: 82-103-8
Straight up record: 114-79
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals are on a short week, but how could you not be impressed by their overtime victory over the Jaguars? Jake Browning walked into his first NFL road start, in prime time, and completed 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and two touchdowns (one rushing). He led the Bengals to 491 yards of total offense!
There's no doubt the Colts have impressed as of late, as they are on their first four-game win streak since the Andrew Luck days. But this is the second road game in as many weeks for Indy. I want to ride this Bengals wave.
The pick: Bengals +1
Projected score: Bengals 23-21
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Expect rainy weather in Cleveland on Sunday, and that's not something that would benefit an injured Trevor Lawrence against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Cleveland is allowing the fewest yards per play at home (3.4) by any team since the 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers.
After being injured on "Monday Night Football," it just feels like Lawrence won't play this week, despite reports indicating he's rehabbing around the clock to give himself a chance. I don't know who the Browns quarterback will be (hoping for Joe Flacco), but these conditions favor Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford.
The pick: Browns -3
Projected score: Browns 13-9
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The last two NFC teams to pay a visit to Baltimore lost by at least 32 points. Lamar Jackson is 18-1 against the NFC in his career, which is the best mark by a starting quarterback against an opposing conference since the merger. He's also undefeated at home vs. NFC opponents.
The Rams are no pushovers, and are currently on a three-game win streak. But, who did they beat? They rallied against the Seattle Seahawks when Geno Smith exited the game due to injury, blew out the Arizona Cardinals and then beat the Flacco-led Browns. The Ravens, in Baltimore off of their bye, are clearly a different kind of test.
The Ravens may be the best team in the AFC. They certainly are when it comes to covering the spread, as Baltimore is 8-4 ATS on the year. L.A. is 5-6-1 ATS.
The pick: Ravens -7
Projected score: Ravens 28-20
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Another week of me falling into the Lions den. I made the Lions a best bet three weeks in a row last month, and they didn't cover a single time. One of those times was against the Bears in Detroit. Justin Fields and Co. jumped out to a 26-14 lead -- and while they couldn't hold on -- Detroit still didn't cover the spread. It's hard to view this team as a legitimate contender because their defense falls asleep for quarters at a time. Last week's outing against the New Orleans Saints was a perfect example of that, but Detroit is three-plus points better than Chicago. Right?
The Lions are 5-1 ATS as road favorites under Dan Campbell, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. As for the Bears? They are 1-5-1 in their last seven home games.
The pick: Lions -3
Projected score: Lions 24-20
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Titans are 0-7 away from Tennessee this season, while Miami is 9-0 at home. The Dolphins have won four of their five games at home by 14 or more points, and now face a team that has been struggling, with a defense that may be without key contributors in defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons and cornerback Kristian Fulton. Last week against the Colts, this Titans secondary allowed two 100-yard receivers. Is Tyreek Hill going to reach 2,000 receiving yards on Monday night?
Mike Vrabel's teams used to be known for covering the spread as underdogs, and taking that "Tennessee toughness" on the road with them. But that just hasn't been the case this year.
The pick: Dolphins -13.5
Projected score: Dolphins 35-17
Other Week 14 picks
Steelers (-6) 17-10 over Patriots
Texans (-3.5) 23-17 over Jets
Buccaneers (+1.5) 23-21 over Falcons
Saints (-5) 26-16 over Panthers
49ers (-10.5) 31-20 over Seahawks
Vikings 21-20 over Raiders (+3)
Bills (+1.5) 33-30 over Chiefs
Broncos (+2.5) 16-13 over Chargers
Cowboys (-3.5) 30-24 over Eagles
Packers 23-17 over Giants (+6.5)
