It all comes down to this. The 2022 NFL regular season will wrap up this weekend with Week 18 and there is still plenty to digest as it relates to the overall playoff picture in both conferences. Both No. 1 seeds are still to be had and we have winner-take-all tickets to the postseason that need punching, so we have a jam-packed weekend that includes Saturday and Sunday football. Of course, we'll look to stay sharp as we put a bow on the regular season in our little betting circle and gear up to wager all the way to Super Bowl LVI.
Below you'll find my entire list of picks for the final slate of the regular season, starting with my five locks of the week.
2022 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 40-41-4
ATS: 118-128-9
ML: 162-91-2
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Titans at Jaguars
The winner of the AFC South will be determined by the end of this matchup. For Tennessee, this is the only way for it to reach the postseason, while Jacksonville could technically still find a way as the No. 7 seed with a loss, so long as Miami, New England and Pittsburgh fall in Week 18 as well. By my estimation, however, I don't think the Jaguars will need outside help to get themselves into the playoffs as they should be able to take down the Titans at home.
With Ryan Tannehill on IR, Tennessee will be starting Joshua Dobbs in this matchup over rookie Malik Willis. Dobbs did show some promise in last Thursday's loss to Dallas and will now have Derrick Henry at his disposal, but it's a tall task to ask him to go toe-to-toe with Trevor Lawrence, who has been emerging as an elite quarterback prospect. The Titans are scoring just 17.6 points per game this season (28th in the NFL), while Lawrence's Jaguars are just outside the top 10 in the league in scoring with 24 points per game. Jacksonville has also covered in four straight games entering Week 18.
If you do consider the Jaguars a legit playoff contender, that also spells bad news for a Tennessee team that is 0-8 against current playoff teams this season.
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Titans 20
The pick: Jaguars -6
Chiefs at Raiders
The No. 1 seed is very much in play for Kansas City as the Chiefs travel out west to face the Raiders. If they beat the Raiders and see the Bills fall against New England, they'd secure home field throughout the postseason. However, if K.C. falls to Las Vegas, it would fall out of contention for the top spot in the AFC.
While I expect the Chiefs to find a way to win on the road, I do think it'll be within the number, which has been the case for Andy Reid's club this season. Kansas City has seven wins without covering this season, which is one shy of matching the most since 1970. Coming into Week 18, the Chiefs are 1-7-1 in their last nine games, which includes an 0-4 ATS streak on the road. As K.C. has allowed teams to stay close, it now faces a Raiders team that played well under Jarrett Stidham as he made his first career start. He allowed Las Vegas to cover as a 10-point home dog by throwing three touchdown passes, and I expect him to continue to play solid enough to keep the Raiders from getting blown out.
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Raiders 24
The pick: Raiders +9.5
Giants at Eagles
The Giants have already clinched their playoff position, so they have no incentive to play their starters. Still, this seems too big of a number to lay, even with several starters expected to be sidelined, including Daniel Jones. Backup Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of keeping New York within this number, especially with Brian Daboll still pulling the strings. After all, the Giants have been arguably the team to bet on this year as they own a 12-4 ATS record.
The Eagles clearly have the most motivation for this game as the No. 1 seed can be theirs with a win. However, they do need to balance securing home-field advantage with getting as healthy as they can before the postseason, particularly under center with Jalen Hurts. If it's Taylor vs. a banged-up Hurts, I'd still feel good about taking the two touchdowns with New York. If it's Taylor vs. Gardner Minshew, I'm sprinting to the window.
Projected score: Eagles 27, Giants 17
The pick: Giants +14
Cowboys at Commanders
Dallas could climb as high as the No. 1 seed in the NFC and possibly win the NFC East if certain dominos fall their way. However, all of that is predicated on the Cowboys winning their Week 18 matchup against Washington, so they'll have plenty of motivation in this division matchup. Meanwhile, one of the top defenses in the league will get some fresh meat as the Commanders are set to start rookie Sam Howell in the regular-season finale.
Howell will also have to keep up with one of the more prolific offenses in the NFL. In the last 10 games, Dallas is averaging 35.1 points per game and has gone nine straight games with at least 27 points. When you pair that with facing a defense that leads the league in takeaways, that feels like too big of a mountain for Howell to climb.
It also doesn't hurt that Dak Prescott -- for all his turnover issues this season -- has performed well against Washington. In his career, he's 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against the Commanders with a passer rating of 107.1.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Commanders 17
The pick: Cowboys -7.5
Browns at Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are still alive in the playoff picture in the AFC and would need a win coupled with losses by the Dolphins and Patriots to squeak in as the No. 7 seed. However, I believe this Cinderella run does come up just short as Mike Tomlin's team falls to the Browns in the regular-season finale.
Don't look now, but the light may have finally come on with the Browns offense in the second half of their win over the Commanders last week. Deshaun Watson tossed all three of his touchdown passes in the second half, which was more than each of his previous four starts combined with the club. As Watson starts to figure it out offensively, the Browns defense has sneakily become one of the better units in the league. Over the last six games, they've allowed just 14 points per game, which is second best in the NFL.
While Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention, it is still in self-evaluation mode with Watson as it continues laying the groundwork for 2023, so the Browns will likely be giving it a full go in this matchup and pull off the upset.
Projected score: Browns 24, Steelers 21
The pick: Browns +3
Rest of the bunch
Ravens at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 28, Ravens 20
The pick: Bengals -7
Buccaneers at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 17
The pick: Falcons -4
Patriots at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Patriots 20
The pick: Bills -7.5
Vikings at Bears
Projected score: Vikings 30, Bears 20
The pick: Vikings -7.5
Texans at Colts
Projected score: Colts 21, Texans 17
The pick: Colts -2.5
Jets at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
The pick: Dolphins +1
Panthers at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Panthers 17
The pick: Saints -3.5
Chargers at Broncos
Projected score: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
The pick: Chargers -2.5
Cardinals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Cardinals 14
The pick: Cardinals +14
Rams at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Rams 17
The pick: Seahawks -6.5
Lions at Packers
Projected score: Packers 30, Lions 27
The pick: Lions +4.5
