Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Cooper Kupp). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in non-PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Edwards isn't a dazzler in terms of making guys miss and racing at over 21 miles per hour. He's not a sports car, he's a bus, and the Ravens intend to keep riding him as a punishing force in their offense. He also has relatively fresh legs coming into a short-week game -- I assume he will be rested and ready while the Bucs will be worn down. It's a recipe that's worked out well for running backs on Thursday nights lately. Edwards is a start in all formats over Jamaal Williams, Michael Carter, Kareem Hunt and the Panthers running backs, but should go ahead of David Montgomery and Tony Pollard in non-PPR.
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Dave's Notebook:
- EDWARDS: Wasn't too bad in his return last week. The massive, mighty rusher broke through plenty of tackles and took advantage of the Ravens' well-practiced blocking to crunch a Browns run defense that was slow to react and was out of position on both of his touchdown runs. Coach John Harbaugh lauded Edwards' physicality after the game, adding "Gus' style is very valuable to us."
- RAVENS: Before Week 7, the most carries anyone had in a game for the Ravens was 13. In his first game of the year, Edwards had 16 carries despite playing just 23 snaps.
- ALSO: Kenyan Drake averaged 0.45 yards per carry on his runs, though some were clock-killing carries late. It wouldn't be surprising to see him out of the game plan next week.
- BUCCANEERS: Made D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard look like Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris last week. Both backs averaged at least 7.0 yards per carry and ranked top 10 in yards before/after contact per rush and explosive rush rate. Hubbard was also top five in avoided tackle rate and had 5 of 9 runs go at least five yards.
- BUCCANEERS: Have allowed a touchdown to a running back in each of their past four games (three rushing) and 10 non-PPR points to a back in three of their past four games (Panthers, Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs). D-tackle Akiem Hicks is not expected to play.
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
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Brady has one or zero touchdowns in every game but one this year (Week 4 against the Chiefs). The short week preparation and his uneven passing, especially in the face of standard pass rushes, are troubling. The matchup against an improving Ravens defense doesn't help. He has not yet burned all of his trust with Fantasy managers, which is why I still rank him as a top-10 quarterback, but I'd feel a little better riding this week out with Tua Tagovailoa in a dream matchup against the Lions or Kyler Murray versus the Vikings.
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Dave's Notebok:
GOAT?: After botching last week's cake matchup at Carolina, the public made it clear they don't think Brady is a must-start.
10-MINUTE POLL: Asking for a friend who writes #FantasyFootball columns. Is Tom Brady still a must-start?
— #AskFFT (@daverichard) October 25, 2022
- LAST WEEK: I don't think the Panthers really did anything to make Brady play poorly. In fact, they barely pressured him (19.6% pass rush pressure rate) even though they blitzed 25.5% of his dropbacks. Brady had time to scan and throw a number of times.
- GOOD BRADY: Had a lot of close calls last week that would have made his stat line better. You probably saw Mike Evans' drop on a wide-open touchdown, but Evans had another 25-yard pass go through his hands, and Chris Godwin couldn't quite catch up with a deep fade that might have gone for a score.
- BAD BRADY: Also had three horrible-looking throws once he drove the Buccaneers inside the 10-yard line, including back-to-back lawn darts to Evans and Godwin. His velocity waned throughout the game.
- DEFENSES: Have figured out that Brady's throwing short (6.02 ADOT last week) and getting rid of the ball quickly (2.43 seconds to throw last week). As a result, they're playing lots of zone coverage. Some are even giving up on blitzing him a ton because he's getting rid of the ball so quickly.
- RAVENS: Have blitzed enemy quarterbacks more than 30% of the snaps just twice this season (Bills, Giants) and have only begun generating a consistent pass rush over the past two weeks. They're not quite the same suffocating defense they've been in years past, but the results aren't awful: Only two quarterbacks have had 20-plus Fantasy points against them this season (Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen). They did a wonderful job limiting Joe Burrow in Week 5 with a lot of zone coverage and non-blitzing. They could easily do the same thing this week, but playing without Calais Campbell on the D-line will have an effect.
- BLITZ: Brady's been blitzed more than 20% of his dropbacks in three games -- against the Packers (he was missing Evans and Godwin), the Chiefs (his only game with multiple passing touchdowns) and last week against the Panthers (he should have had a bigger game).
- HISTORY: Brady has played the Ravens with John Harbaugh as the head coach 10 times in his career (including the postseason). He's thrown multiple touchdowns three times and topped 300 yards passing four times.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Murray seems to have an edge on Gordon when it comes to touches near the goal line (he hasn't fumbled there yet; Gordon has), and the Broncos might see the edge Murray has on Gordon in terms of efficiency. Both of these things make him no better than a low-end starting option in the mold of a touchdown-or-bust back, but there is some hope he can pick up more work and take advantage of the matchup.
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Dave's Notebook:
- MURRAY: After dominating touches in Week 6, Gordon out-touched Murray in Week 7 (13 to 10) and played 11 more snaps. However, Murray scored from two yards out and was in on both snaps Denver had inside the 10-yard line (which were also their only two red-zone snaps).
- MURRAY: Though it hasn't been pretty, he's been more efficient running the ball than Melvin Gordon in every way since joining the Broncos, including a decent 2.35 yards after contact per rush (compared to 1.71 for Gordon).
- JAGUARS: Rank second-worst in missed tackles on runs (40) and actually are the worst in their past three weeks (17). They've allowed 3.03 yards after contact per rush on the year, which is about league average, but it's a little worse over the past three weeks (3.21).
- JAGUARS: Have allowed at least 13 non-PPR points to a running back in four straight (Giants, Colts without Jonathan Taylor, Texans, Eagles). They've also let up five rushing scores in those past four.
Flex Starter in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
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The knee-jerk reaction based on last week is to trust Jeudy as a No. 2 receiver, but there's been too much inconsistency not only this season but throughout his career. He's flex worthy, especially in PPR, and worth starting in front of Steelers receivers given their tough matchup
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Dave's Notebook:
- JEUDY: Notched his third game with 15-plus PPR points last week thanks to a season-high 11 targets from Brett Rypien (7-96-0). In six games with Wilson, Jeudy had 15 PPR points once and exceeded it once (20 points in Week 1). He's maxed out at eight targets and four receptions in games with Wilson.
- WILSON: Has targeted Sutton on 26% of his throws compared to 19% for Jeudy. Both have a quality ADOT (11.9 for Sutton, 12.9 for Jeudy) but the red-zone targets (9 for Sutton, 5 for Jeudy) and end-zone targets (7 for Sutton, 4 for Jeudy) clearly favor one guy.
- JAGUARS: Are pretty much league average in pass defense against receivers, but of the eight touchdowns they've allowed to the position, only two have gone to slot wideouts (and just one in the past six weeks).
- JEUDY: Has played in the slot anywhere from 56 to 80% in each game this year, most by any Broncos wideout.
- FILM: Jeudy's getting open a bunch, but that's nothing new for him. He's struggled to consistently snare the ball, and in the case of playing with Wilson, has seen an unfair 22% share of off-target throws (Sutton has seen 12%).
Flex Starter in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
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If you're starting Kirk, you're hoping the targets keep coming. Jacksonville continues to morph into a pass-heavy offense; whether or not they'll HAVE to throw more this week will depend on how their defense holds up. I do think eight targets is a safe minimum for Kirk, which would lead to at worst a decent Fantasy week. He's a borderline PPR flex I'd use ahead of Jerry Jeudy and Jakobi Meyers, but not ahead of D.J. Moore or Courtland Sutton.
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Dave's Notebook:
- KIRK: Picked up double-digit targets in Week 7, only the second time this season. He also got the final target and catch of the game just short of the goal line. It's a sign he's back in the good graces of his quarterback.
- BRONCOS: Tough matchup for receivers no matter where they line up. Denver ranks top 10 in fewest yards per catch and YAC/reception (yards after catch per reception) to receivers, but the group has allowed a 76.5% catch rate specifically to slot guys. Stud cornerback Pat Surtain has played two slot snaps all season; K'Waun Williams figures to be lined up the most from Kirk and has allowed a (surprise!) 75% catch rate in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
- BRONCOS: The most-targeted receivers in four of the past five games has turned in at least 12 PPR points, a list that includes studs like Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams, but also Josh Palmer, Alec Pierce and Brandon Aiyuk. No one with seven or fewer targets against the Broncos has had even 10 PPR points.
- ALSO: No wide receiver, regardless of where they line up or how many targets they get, has scored 11-plus non-PPR points against the Broncos in 2022.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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I don't blame Fantasy managers for hesitating to start Moore, but the Panthers offense moved in the right direction last week. Moore is clearly their best pass-catcher, Panthers interim coach Steve Wilks has said he wants to keep featuring him, and the Falcons have struggled with top receivers for much of the year. He's a desirable flex, if not a low-end starter, in full-PPR ahead of Christian Kirk and Michael Pittman. In non-PPR I'd start him over Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Moore turned 10 targets into a season-best 7-69-1 stat line complete with a terrific 20-yard touchdown from P.J. Walker. In the past two weeks, Moore has seen a 40.5% target share, including one game where the Panthers purposely showcased Christian McCaffrey for the sole purpose of trading him. Coincidentally or not, Baker Mayfield has played zero snaps in these games.
- MOORE: Despite the nice game, Moore still had an ADOT of 8.8 and saw only three balls that traveled more than 10 air yards (he caught two). Walker attempted only eight throws that traveled over 10 air yards.
- FALCONS: Have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this year (11, including five in their past two games) and rank fifth-worst in catch rate allowed. They've allowed 24 pass completions of 20-plus yards (second-most).
- FALCONS: Are expected to play without cornerback A.J. Terrell, their best coverage guy, and safety Jaylinn Hawkins.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Pitts has basically devolved into a touchdown-or-bust tight end. Sure, there's a chance he breaks out for 50 yards, but we could have said that for any of his first seven games and would have been right once. If his name was Marcedes Lewis or Geoff Swaim, you wouldn't even think twice about starting him. Dream if you want to, but a guy who's barely scored in his NFL career and has one game this season with more than 20 yards (!!) probably doesn't warrant much trust. I'd rather take my chances on Greg Dulcich, Cade Otton or Harrison Bryant.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PITTS: Has a 41.7% target share, a number that should make him the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy if he wasn't on a team that threw the ball 42% of the time and averaged 21.4 attempts per game.
- PITTS: Has a 4.0 ADOT, a number that has kept him as the No. 26 tight end on a per-game basis in PPR (5.8 points per game).
- END ZONE: Last week Pitts has three end-zone targets, including two from inside the 5. Penalties wiped two of them off the books and Pitts caught a third that might have actually been a touchdown but the refs ruled him down right at the goal line.
- FALCONS: Have run 38 plays inside the 10 this season ... and thrown nine passes.
- PANTHERS: Have allowed two touchdowns to tight ends and eight passing touchdowns total all season.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Schultz has always been safer for PPR than non-PPR, but his upside is pretty limited considering he's not explosive and shares tight end targets. He's gonna have to score to really deliver, which makes him similar to a lot of tight ends. I'd rather start Greg Dulcich, Cade Otton and Evan Engram in all formats.
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Dave's Notebook:
- SCHULTZ: He's clearly impacted by his PCL injury. Nearly all of his routes were hitches or curls where he didn't have to run at an angle or make a bunch of cuts. He's never been fast, but Schultz seemed especially slow when he did run at an angle. Mayonnaise separates better than he does from defenders.
- COWBOYS: Have used as many as three tight ends throughout the course of a game, including all three on a scoring play last week (Peyton Hendershot caught a touchdown and is among those faster than Schultz).
- SCHULTZ: Ran just 16 routes last week but did have a 20% target share in Dak Prescott's first game back, catching five targets for 49 yards.
- BEARS: Haven't faced many top-flight tight ends but have held the position to one touchdown on the season.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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If you're starting Tagovailoa, you're hoping he needed last week to knock some rust off and will throw better this week in one of the easiest matchups you could ask for. Detroit doesn't pressure quarterbacks enough to be a threat for Tagovailoa, making the matchup all the better. I'd chance it with Tagovailoa over Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, and I'd even start him over Tom Brady based on the upside.
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Dave's Notebook:
- FILM: Tagovailoa was actually awful last week with as many as five throws that should have been intercepted and another three throws that should have been huge plays for Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill, not including when he didn't even see Waddle streaking down the right sideline in the fourth quarter (he made a predetermined throw to Hill). He seemed focused on getting the ball out quickly and favored targets between the numbers.
- LIONS: Have allowed at least 22 Fantasy points to everyone except Dak Prescott last week and Bailey Zappe. On the year Detroit has allowed 11 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and 259.2 pass yards per game.
- LIONS: On the season have allowed a 70.8% completion rate, 11.9 yards per catch and an 8.77 ADOT, all of which rank bottom-seven. They are a shade better than league average in YAC/reception allowed to wide receivers (only six missed tackles), which is commendable given the amount of man coverage they've played.
- LIONS: Have played man coverage at the second-highest rate this season. They have yet to play zone coverage for more than 66.7% in any game this year.
- TAGOVAILOA: Has been better than fine regardless of coverage but more efficient against man coverage (12.1% TD rate, 119.3 QB rating) than zone coverage (3.6% TD rate, 99.6 QB rating). That includes Week 7, when Tagovailoa barely saw man coverage but was awful against it (50% completion rate, no touchdowns, 64.1 QB rating).
- A CONCERN: Quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Lions, meaning many of them don't throw enough to have a monster game. Tagovailoa did throw 35 times last week in a competitive game, but it was just the second time this season he had that many attempts.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Hockenson is one of a handful of tight ends who has the potential for modest yardage and touchdowns, so he's going to stick in most lineups. Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee and Taysom Hill would start for me over him in non-PPR, but just the first two in PPR. I'm not ready to start Greg Dulcich over him; he's clearly a top-12 tight end.
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Dave's Notebook:
- HOCKENSON: Had a 20% target share last week, but that meant five targets and a 4-48-0 stat line. It's fair to say that was in a tougher matchup than what he'll face this week.
- DOLPHINS: Rank 12th in most Fantasy points allowed to tight ends and are actually league-worst in catch rate allowed (83.9%). However, they're also third-best in yards per catch allowed (8.36) and fifth-best in YAC/reception allowed (4.02). Against Minnesota, a similarly bad defense against tight ends, Hockenson posted 10 PPR points thanks to a touchdown.
- HOCKENSON: Take away his monster outlier and Hockenson has averaged 6.2 full-PPR points per game. Yowsers.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Could the Jets mimic the Bears and try to take Meyers away? It's possible, but the Patriots figure to keep Meyers in the slot this week to avoid matchups with either of the Jets' outside corners. Slot cornerback Michael Carter is beatable (73.3% catch rate allowed). The hope is Meyers commands targets again like he did before Week 7 and is a useful flex in PPR. I'd start him over any Steelers receiver and Curtis Samuel.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Took advantage of busted coverage and turned an underthrown Bailey Zappe pass into a pounce-in touchdown. After that, the Bears used rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon to cover him and, with frequent safety help over the top, basically erased him from the Patriots offense.
- BEFORE WEEK 7: Meyers averaged 7.8 targets, 6.0 receptions and 80.3 yards per game. Even with two targets last week and two games missed he leads all Patriots in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns.
- JETS: After a real rough start, the Jets have allowed one touchdown to a wide receiver in their past four games. Only two receivers -- Jerry Jeudy and George Pickens -- have more than 80 yards.
- JETS: Have been right about league average in their zone coverage snaps, but they'd be higher if not for a man-heavy Week 3 against Bengals. They've played 70% zone in three of their past four games and figure to do so again this week.
- MEYERS: Has been good regardless of coverage but both of his touchdowns this year have come against zone. He should be an easy short- and intermediate-range target for Mac Jones to make easy throws to.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Harris will still see some work, but it's not quite like it was before his injury, and he's not quite as efficient as Stevenson has been anyway. He's on the wrong side of a running back split workload against a run defense that's been improving by the week. If you start him, you have to pray to Ye Olde Fantasy Gods that he scores.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PATRIOTS: Coming off a disheartening blowout and with Mac Jones still getting comfortable, it would make sense for the Pats to go right back to their run game.
- LAST WEEK: Rhamondre Stevenson started and played on all third downs and in the two-minute offense, but he and Harris rotated series. In other words, Stevenson played most/all the snaps on the Patriots' first drive, then Harris led off the second drive and was pulled for Stevenson in passing situations. Then they'd repeat until the Patriots were playing so far from behind that Harris didn't see any playing time.
- JETS: Have been very good against the run over their past two games, halting the Packers and Broncos to 3.3 yards per carry and one touchdown. The defense missed only three tackles in those two games, which is very good. Only one touchdown was allowed (last week to Latavius Murray).
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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The only way Fantasy managers should confidently start Carter as anything more than a middling flex is if Robinson is ruled out. Even then, Carter figures to share to some degree with someone else because this coaching staff has rarely trusted him to be their lead back. Maybe he shows out this week, but it feels unlikely given the matchup. I'd rather start Latavius Murray and Brian Robinson.
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Dave's Notebook:
- CARTER: In the first three games with Zach Wilson under center and Breece Hall on the field, Carter averaged 8.3 carries, 3.1 yards per carry, 1.7 receptions and 6.4 yards per catch. Outside of getting a pair of touchdowns against the Dolphins in Week 5, he was an afterthought in the wake of the rookie's brilliant performances.
- JETS: Acquired James Robinson to share with Carter. Assume the Jets will use this game to begin feeling out how they'll use both backs moving forward. Carter is the shiftier of the two, but Robinson has plenty of power and has actually been more efficient in Jacksonville than Carter has been this year with Gang Green.
- PATRIOTS: Allowed their first touchdowns of the season to Bears running backs last week in an uncharacteristically bad outing. Usually the Patriots rebound ferociously in these situations and should go back to being a stickler against the run. They remain one of the best in yards after contact allowed (2.75 is sixth-best) and have missed just 15 tackles on the season.
- JETS: Not only lost Hall last week but also impressive O-lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. The Jets' run blocking already had a bottom-five grade from Pro Football Focus.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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There is potential for Carr to disappoint not because of the matchup but because Josh Jacobs soaks up tons of yards and scores. That combined with the sudden lack of pass attempts figures to put a cap on Carr's upside. However, he still could land in the 20-23 point range thanks to the Saints' recent woes. He's good enough to start over Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, but I'd have a tough time putting him ahead of upside guys like Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa.
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Dave's Notebook:
- SAINTS DEFENSE: Looked exhausted playing on the road on a short week, yet still held Kyler Murray to 19 Fantasy points. That had more to do with Murray not doing as much as he had in prior weeks, especially as a rusher; the Saints defense did not shut him down by any means. In the two games prior, they let up 29 and 38 Fantasy points to Geno Smith and Joe Burrow.
- SAINTS: Only the Bills have blitzed less than the Saints this season, and the Saints rank dead last in pass rush pressure rate (the Bills are fifth-best).
- CARR: Is incredibly good when not pressured this year, which hasn't happened often. We're talking about a 69% completion rate, 0.26 EPA/dropback (expected points added per dropback) and a 98.7 QB rating with nine touchdowns thrown (zero when pressured).
- CARR: The only games he hasn't thrown two touchdowns in were versus Denver in Week 4 and in last week's lopsided win over Houston. What might be more alarming is Carr's lack of yardage in his past three games -- under 250 in each and under 35 pass attempts in each.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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Dalton is difficult to trust because the only game he posted great numbers in was in last week's garbage-time fueled blowout loss. That doesn't figure to be the case this week. So even though the matchup is good, it's tough to trust Dalton to go bonkers. However, 20 points feels like it's on the table, even if it's a little close to his ceiling. I'd take my chances with him over Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in tough matchups, but guys like Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo still get the nod.
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Dave's Notebook:
- RAIDERS: Have allowed 20-plus Fantasy points to every quarterback they've seen including Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson (29!) and Davis Mills last week (22!).
- RAIDERS: Are slightly better than league average in pass rush pressure rate (33.1%) but that's a byproduct of being really pressure-heavy (42% or better against the Chargers, Titans and Texans) or really pressure-weak (29.2% or worse against the Cardinals, Broncos and Chiefs).
- SAINTS: Rank 10th in lowest pass rush pressure rate allowed on the season and ninth in Dalton's four starts.
- DALTON: Predictably has been terrible when pressured (42.5% completion rate, -0.45 EPA/dropback, 58.0 QB rating) and very good when not pressured (70.4% completion rate, 0.23 EPA/dropback, 100.9 QB rating).
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Thielen has earned some cred with the Fantasy community based on how he's done in his last several games, and the matchup isn't so tough that he'll be left with lint. He's worth chancing in PPR ahead of Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore and Michael Pittman. It's harder to get behind him in non-PPR when he's not racking up tons of yardage (over 60 yards twice this season). In non-PPR he's a flex ahead of Diontae Johnson and Brandin Cooks.
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Dave's Notebook:
- CARDINALS: Play a zone-heavy defense that focuses on taking away the deep pass. That didn't quite work out for them in Week 7 when Rashid Shaheed hauled in a 53-yard bomb from Andy Dalton, but that was just one play. Long gains for Chris Olave and Kevin White were catch-and-runs off shorter throws with missed tackles -- those are the kinds of plays Thielen could potentially have.
- CARDINALS: Are dead-last on the season in YAC/reception (5.89) to wideouts; they were third-worst going into Week 7, so it's not anything new.
- CARDINALS: Have allowed 15-plus PPR points to Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave. That's it.
- THIELEN: Has 15-plus PPR points in three of his past four and seven-plus targets in each of his past five.
- THIELEN: Has an 82.6% catch rate against zone coverage and a 50% catch rate against man coverage. The coverage scheme and the Cardinals' likely focus on Justin Jefferson should open up Thielen for a good game.
- THIELEN: Is one behind Jefferson in red-zone targets (10 to 9) and three behind Jefferson in end-zone targets (6 to 3). But he has a much higher catch rate in the red zone (67% to 30%).
- ODDS: Vikings are 3.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 26.25 points, the fourth-highest on the board this week.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
There's no good reason to start Harris unless you have nothing else at running back. He's a touchdown-needy running back who isn't scoring very often, and his explosiveness has vanished. I'd rather start D'Onta Foreman and Brian Robinson in all formats and even Nyheim Hines in PPR.
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Dave's Notebook:
- EAGLES: Have allowed a touchdown to a running back in three of their past four games, but only one came from inside of 10 yards. They have yet to give up a receiving score to a RB.
- EAGLES: Since their Week 1 struggle with the Lions, they've let up 4.19 yards per carry to running backs and rank better than league average in yards before and after contact per rush with 16 missed tackles.
- HARRIS: All three of his touchdowns have come from six yards or closer, and two have been through the air.
- HARRIS: Continues to get opportunities but has struggled, averaging 14.3 carries and 3.1 yards per carry on the year. His receiving averages -- 2.6 catches and 4.8 yards per reception per game -- also stink.
- EAGLES: The Eagles rank fifth in fewest rush attempts seen per game, a byproduct of them leading their opponents.
- ODDS: The Eagles are 10.5-point favorites and the Steelers are tied for the lowest implied team total with 16.5 points.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
It's been a down year for Johnson, and it figures to continue this week. His target volume is nice, but he's catching just 57% of his targets and averaging UNDER 9.0 yards per catch. There's no upside here. I'd rather start George Pickens, Allen Robinson, Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: With a good matchup on the table, Johnson floundered again, turning 10 targets into a 5-42-0 stat line. He's practically unrecognizable compared to years past and has been overshadowed by another receiver on his own team for each of the past four weeks.
- EAGLES: Have allowed five touchdowns to receivers on the season (not that you have to worry about that with Johnson) and also rank atop the league in lowest catch rate allowed to outside receivers (52.6%). They also are top 12 in yards per catch and YAC/reception allowed. They're very good.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
If this matchup doesn't yield points for Cooks, then nothing will. He's worth starting over any receiver with a limited ceiling -- guys like Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel or Donovan Peoples-Jones in full-PPR. Hopefully he does really well and you can trade him for something decent.
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Dave's Notebook:
- SERIOUSLY?! Cooks has been an enormous bust for pretty much every week of the season. Even last week, in a favorable matchup against the Raiders, Cooks saw a season-low five targets and scored 8.6 PPR points.
- TEXANS: Aren't throwing the ball as much as we believed before the season thanks to Fantasy breakout Dameon Pierce, and quarterback Davis Mills has spread his targets around a little more than we believed. Cooks' 23% target share is basically his only redeeming stat, and even that number has been on the decline for the past few weeks.
- TITANS: This is one of the league's worst pass defenses. They rank third in most Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They are bottom-six in catch rate (68%) and yards per catch (13.8) allowed to opposing wideouts. They've yielded nine touchdowns to WRs in six games. Four receivers have at least 80 yards against them in their past five. They start a penguin at cornerback. OK, I made that last point up.
- TITANS: Specifically, they are horrid against outside receivers, which Cooks has lined up as for much of the year. The catch rate allowed? 76.7%. The yards per catch? 14.98. The YAC/reception? 4.23, which honestly is right around league average.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Henderson has a tough matchup in front of him, not to mention uncertainties about how his own O-line will perform. There's a pretty good chance he struggles if he doesn't score, and the 49ers aren't a team that allows boatloads of touchdowns. You're better off starting D'Onta Foreman, Brian Robinson and Latavius Murray.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WEEK 4: Henderson had 10 touches against the Niners while still splitting with Cam Akers and had 27 rush yards and 12 receiving yards.
- HISTORY: Henderson has never scored on the 49ers and has been under 48 total yards in five of six career meetings.
- HENDERSON: Has been among the least efficient running backs in the league, ranking outside the top 30 in yards per carry, yards after contact per rush, explosive run rate and avoided tackle rate. He has no more than 73 yards in a game this season and only has two double-digit Fantasy outings because he's scored twice.
- 49ERS: Their run defense has been terrific even though they've taken on some injuries. Only one running back has posted more than 10 non-PPR points against them this season, and it's the guy they just traded for last week. Not that the Niners have taken on a ton of great runners, but they've been stout against the run and figure to keep it going.
- RAMS: Usually during the bye week teams self-scout themselves to figure out how they can be better. That probably means the Rams spent a lot of time on their offensive line, and probably not as much time on their running backs since Akers has already been ruled out and rookie Kyren Williams isn't expected to make his debut. Unless they intend to give Ronnie Rivers a big opportunity or expand Malcolm Brown's role, Henderson figures to be their main back.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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It's probably likely that Higbee's target volume won't be quite as good as it was back in Week 4, especially if the Rams get deeper at receiver with Van Jefferson coming back. But he's an every-down player who has potential to score and pick up yardage every week, so sitting him at tight end is tough to do. Keep him in lineups, especially if catches count.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WEEK 4: Was a prominent target of Matthew Stafford's and caught 10 of 14 targets for 73 yards against the Niners.
- HISTORY: Higbee has had at least 11 PPR points in each of his past three regular-season games against the 49ers, with touchdowns a positive (three in his past three).
- 49ERS: In the past four weeks have allowed a tight end to notch 10-plus PPR points three times. That includes Higbee in Week 4, Travis Kelce in Week 7 and even Kyle Pitts in Week 6. Many of these numbers have come in part because of the team's injuries in the defensive secondary.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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The sticking points on Smith are his pass volume and the absence of DK Metcalf, not so much the matchup. Without Metcalf for the last three quarters last week against the Chargers, Smith completed 88.2% of his throws for 7.88 yards per attempt. That's pretty great, but he attempted only 17 passes and threw one score. It's hard to trust Smith as anything more than a low-end starter given these shortcomings. I feel better about him than I do Justin Fields, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but I'll take Tua Tagovailoa and Derek Carr ahead of him.
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Dave's Notebook:
- FILM: Smith played much better last week, a testament to him after a down game against Arizona and going most of Week 7 without DK Metcalf. He was more relaxed and decisive in the pocket but didn't run as much as in Week 6, nor did he throw as often.
- SMITH: Has oscillated between 25 and 31 pass attempts in each of his past four games. Given the improvements in the Seahawks' run game, that figures to be right about where he'll land most weeks when he's not forced to play catch-up in the second half.
- GIANTS: Have held every single quarterback to 20 or fewer Fantasy points, an incredible task given the lack of headline talent on defense. However, it should be noted they gave up 20 to Aaron Rodgers, 17 to Lamar Jackson (they blitzed like crazy) and 18 to Trevor Lawrence, so quarterbacks have gotten close to topping 20.
- GIANTS: Rank tied for ninth-worst in pass rush pressure rate this year despite being first in the league in blitz rate. They've sent at least five defenders after the quarterback on a minimum of 32.4% of dropbacks. That's a ton.
- SMITH: Has managed blitzes fairly well this season, completing 67.2% of his passes with a 90.1 QB rating and 6.69 yards per attempt. He's naturally been better when not blitzed and has been a little worse than this when generally pressured, blitz or no blitz.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Even if Shaquille Leonard returns for the Colts, Robinson should be serviceable enough to be a low-end No. 2 running back with at least one or two opportunities to score. That puts him in line to start ahead of other slug backs like Najee Harris and Latavius Murray along with Michael Carter and Kareem Hunt.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Set another season high for the Commanders in carries with 20, but Robinson was very mediocre with them (3.7 yards per carry). He couldn't take advantage of an easy matchup, nor could he come through on two carries near the goal line. The Packers stacking the box on 30.4% of his runs didn't help.
- FILM: Robinson's best runs were to the edges, including a 24-yard jaunt where he followed his blocker and ran through contact, dragging a Packers defender 10 yards! The Commanders' blocking was a nightmare, which was the biggest reason why his rushing average was so gross, but he also had moments of hesitation and stopped his feet, which is part of what got Antonio Gibson benched for him.
- COMMANDERS: Robinson has seen 37 carries, caught two passes and played 59 snaps over the past two weeks, well ahead of Gibson (15 carries, six catches, 43 snaps) and J.D. McKissic (three carries, zero catches, 27 snaps). Though he's been a little disappointing, he still figures to be their main running back.
- COLTS: Have let a RB score at least nine non-PPR/12 PPR points in each of their past six games. Because of their offensive ineptitude and their pair of matchups against the Titans, they've seen the most carries of any run defense in the league, allowing 4.12 yards per carry but still in the top 12 in yards before and after contact allowed.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Seems like a pretty easy decision: Rodgers' receiving corps is depleted, he hasn't been productive, the matchup is impossible and the Bills are rested and coming off a bye. I can't imagine a worse situation for Rodgers to be stuck in. I'm prepared to start P.J. Walker, Davis Mills and Ryan Tannehill over Rodgers this week. I don't blame you if you can't or won't do the same, but do try to find the courage to start someone else over him because things could get messy.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PACKERS: Figure to be without Allen Lazard (shoulder), who's been Rodgers' most trusted target this season. Another trusted ally, Randall Cobb, is on IR. Rookie Romeo Doubs has been a mess the past several weeks, and Sammy Watkins wasn't very impressive in his return. There's a shot rookie Christian Watson will be back, but who knows how ready he'll be to contribute.
- BILLS: Are among the toughest matchups for any quarterback. Only one guy -- Patrick Mahomes -- has posted more than FIFTEEN Fantasy points against them. They've hounded Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson.
- RODGERS: Has not exceeded 20 Fantasy points in any game this season.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I called Hunt a touchdown-needy Fantasy back last week, and he did score but was otherwise so under-utilized that his Fantasy numbers still dragged. No one can feel good about starting him given his downturn, and the tough matchup doesn't help at all. He once again may struggle to get even nine PPR points. I'd rather start Michael Carter, Latavius Murray and, as PPR flexes go, Donovan Peoples-Jones.
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Dave's Notebook:
- FUN FACT: This is the seventh time in eight editions of Lineup Decisions that I've written about Hunt. I've been incorrect on him once (Week 2) and on-target otherwise. As long as you guys want to know what to do with him, I will keep researching him. It's getting easier.
- LAST WEEK: Hunt once again didn't see many touches despite playing 43% of the snaps and all 11 third/fourth downs for the Browns. He even saw a majority of the snaps inside the 10 and did score on one of them. He totaled 7 PPR points, including the six he got for the touchdown.
- BENGALS: Rank sixth in fewest Fantasy points allowed to rival RBs, giving up 4.1 yards per carry with two rushing scores allowed. They rank third-best in yards after contact per carry allowed and have missed just 21 tackles on runs all year.
- HISTORY: Hunt has actually scored in 3 of 4 games against the Bengals while with the Browns, but he also saw at least 11 touches and gained at least 65 total yards in each game he found the end zone in. Those numbers would be much easier to believe in had the Browns given him more touches in Weeks 6 and 7.
