I just can't stand prosperity.
One week after killing it with my picks, it was back in the dumpster for me in Week 17. I went 6-9 with my expert picks against the spread, 10-5 straight up and a disappointing 2-3 with my best bets as part of the Pick-Six Podcast.
That drops my record to 120-126-9 ATS, 159-95-1 straight up and 54-40-5 with my best bets. PS: The Panthers were one of my best bets. That's a bad loss with Sam Darnold's late fumble causing the spread loser.
Week 18 is tough, but let's hope I can end the regular season on a little heater and carry it on into the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This game is meaningless for these two. I would imagine the Bucs would sit a lot of players, even if Todd Bowles said they won't, which plays into the hands of the Falcons. They are playing to build something for next year. Look for the Falcons to play hard and find a way to beat the Tampa Bay backups.
Pick: Falcons 23, Bucs 17
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is an important game for both teams. The Bills are playing for seeding, while the Patriots can get into the playoffs with a win. That won't be easy. The Bills are coming off the cancelled game Monday night and have had to handle the mental part of having a fallen teammate in Damar Hamlin. Getting past that will be tough. But I expect the Bills to play well here and all but end New England's playoff chances.
Pick: Bills 33, Patriots 21
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Vikings aren't playing very well, but they still have 12 victories and can lock up the second seed by winning this one. The Bears looked awful last week in losing to the Lions. The Bears will play better here, but I think Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson light them up.
Pick: Vikings 31, Bears 19
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals had their game suspended Monday night against the Bills, which could impact their preparation here, especially if they are awarded the AFC North crown. The Ravens won't have Lamar Jackson back, which doesn't help Baltimore's ailing offense. I think the Bengals will come out and light up the Ravens defense. Bengals win it.
Pick: Bengals 29, Ravens 21
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Texans are playing for the first pick in the draft here, so they should be playing to lose. They won't be. That's not the nature of this league. The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but does it matter? The offense is horrible. But I think they will play well enough to win Jeff Saturday's last game as interim coach.
Pick: Colts 20, Texans 13
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (PK)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Jets are eliminated, while Miami has to win to get in and hope New England loses. The Dolphins will almost certainly be starting seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback. That's tough duty against a good Jets defense. Even so, I think the Dolphins will do enough on offense to win against a team with little motivation.
Pick: Dolphins 21, Jets 17
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
These two are done in terms of the playoffs, but the Saints have played well the past two weeks. The defense has really played well. That will show here as Carolina plays a second-consecutive road game with little to play for after being eliminated last week. The Saints win it easily.
Pick: Saints 26, Panthers 13
Cleveland Browns (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers still have an outside shot to make the playoffs, but they have to win here and get help. The Browns are playing consecutive road games, but you know they would love to close out their season beating their rivals. I think they do. It's an ugly game, but Cleveland will end Pittsburgh's playoff chances.
Pick: Browns 21, Steelers 20
New York Giants (+14) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Eagles can lock up the top seed if they win this game. The Giants are locked into the sixth seed, but coach Brian Daboll has said he will play his starters. How much is to be determined. The Eagles offense should have Jalen Hurts back here, which will be big. They need the game more and they will get it.
Pick: Eagles 30, Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Commanders have been eliminated, so they are playing for nothing. The Cowboys are pushing to win the division if the Eagles lose. Dallas is rested after playing last Thursday, which will help. Washington struggles on offense no matter who plays quarterback, and that will hold true here as the Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Commanders 21
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers are trying to get the fifth seed in the AFC, which they will do with a victory. Denver is playing for nothing. The Broncos played better last week against the Chiefs after firing Nathaniel Hackett, and I think they will show more of that here. The Broncos will hang around and possibly pull off the upset in this one.
Pick: Chargers 28, Broncos 27
Los Angels Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Seahawks need to win this and hope the Lions beat the Packers to get into the playoffs. The Seattle defense played well last week against the Jets, which I think that will carry over here against a Rams offense that struggled against the Chargers. Geno Smith will also have a good day.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 20
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Cardinals have been done for a long time, so they are looking toward Cabo. The 49ers need this to possibly have a chance for the top seed in the NFC. The 49ers defense was bad last week against the Raiders, but that will change against a bad Cardinals offense. The 49ers get back on track.
Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 10
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
If the Packers win, they are in. It's that simple. The Lions need to win and have Seattle lose. The Packers have won four straight to get into this position. The Lions are coming off an impressive victory over Chicago, but this is a big step up in completion. The Packers are playing well and they will continue that here.
Pick: Packers 31, Lions 24
