Here's the little talk we have with ourselves before the start of every combine: "Do not overreact to other-worldly 40 times or 3-cone drills or vertical leaps -- this is football, it's not middle school field day." And every time, without fail, I overreact.
And can you not?
Jordan Davis, all 6-foot-7, 341 pounds, ran a 4.78 40 -- that's faster than four tight ends, 0.04 seconds slower than Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and 0.12 seconds slower than Alabama slot receiver Slade Bolden. That's insane.
So, yeah, Davis is again among our top 32 selections.
There are other surprises this week too -- the Titans draft a quarterback (less shocking: so too do the Falcons and Steelers); the Panthers, with needs along the O-line and at QB, address the secondary and the Raiders land a pass rusher making his debut in our weekly mock drafts.
OK, let's get to it.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Ekwonu was our OT1 coming into the combine and nothing's changed. His workout in Indy matched what he showed on the field during the college football season, and imagine how good he'll be when he refines his technique and doesn't have to rely so much on his sheer physical talents.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Hutchinson told us at the combine that the folks who think he's reached his ceiling are, to put it politely, grossly misinformed. He's 21, is coming off a monster '21 campaign, and also tested through the roof. He's the safest pick in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
If Ekwonu is our OT1, Neal is OT1A and it's really close. He's 6-foot-7, 337 pounds, but standing next to him he looks more like a svelte 265; he carries the weight well and that balance, power and athleticism showed up all the time in his game, which came against some of the best edge rushers in the country.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
The talk that Thibodeaux doesn't love football is just that. He proved it during his Oregon career, and competed at the combine too. Plus, as one team put it to us: "Maybe we're overthinking this one." Bottom line: Thibodeaux has game-changing talents and should be among the first players drafted.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Cross plays in Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, which means he's not asked to do a lot of run blocking. And he'll tell you that's one of the things he wants to improve, even though he was very good in that area last season. Either way, Cross' athleticism shines through and that, coupled with his strength, makes him a top-10 draft-day target.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Carolina would love an offensive linemen here but with three off the board they'll have to redirect their efforts. QB makes the most sense, and this could be the pick here if they address the O-line in free agency. For now, though, they're taking Kyle Hamilton, who has Ed Reed-type instincts in center field, though he can line up anywhere.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 7
After transferring from Georgia, Johnson had a fantastic season at Florida State. And he told us at the combine that he felt like he had something to prove going from the SEC to the ACC. Well, he did that and then some, then he dominated the Senior Bowl, and followed that up with an electric workout in Indy.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
We've been upfront about Wills: we have a second-round grade on him based on his body of work in college, but that doesn't mean teams looking for a quarterback won't take one a round or so before they should. Willis had a great week at the Senior Bowl and reports are that he interviewed well in Indy. In Atlanta, it's best-case scenario for Willis because he'll spend the year sitting behind Matt Ryan, and in 2023, Arthur Smith will have his next franchise QB, one who does just about everything you want in a modern-day signal caller.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
A year ago the Broncos took Patrick Surtain in this range and now they double down with Sauce Gardner, who is coming off a great showing for the Bearcats. Drafting CBs with back-to-back first-round picks might seem like overkill, but Denver will lose some members of its secondary to free agency, and more than that, they also play in a division that includes Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
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From
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Jets could target edge rusher here but Lloyd is a special talent. We were impressed by him during the '21 season and nothing changed at the combine. He's the prototypical off-ball linebacker in today's NFL (pay no attention to his 4.7-something 40 times -- he plays immeasurably faster), and it's like he was built in a lab. This may seem high but, well, it's not.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
We'll see if Washington makes any moves in free agency to address the QB position because, ultimately, that will inform who they'll target in the draft. For now, we have them beefing up the wide receiver corps; Terry McLaurin is one of the best young players in the league but he's also in the final year of his rookie deal. And while Curtis Samuel is entering Year 2, he didn't exactly set the world on fire in '21. Wilson, meanwhile, is one of the the most dynamic players in college football and his game in many ways reminds us of Odell Beckham Jr.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Stingley didn't work out at the combine as he recovers from a foot injury, and he only played three games in '21, but it's hard to forget just how dominant he was in '19 as a freshman, where he spent practices going up against Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall and Racey McMath. He's a ball hawk, not to mention an asset in the return game and he'll only last this long because hasn't played a lot of football in the last 12 months.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Is this an overreaction to Davis' out-of-this-galaxy performance at the combine. Hell and yes. That's a slight exaggeration; Davis made frequent appearances in previous mock drafts but had been pushed out in recent weeks by other names. Well, when you're 6-foot-6, 341 pounds and run the 40 in 4.78 seconds, have a 32-inch vertical and a broad jump of 10 feet, 3 inches -- and oh, by the way, you were a one-man wrecking crew in the SEC -- perhaps it's time to reevaluate. It's easy to say Davis is a two-down player but his obvious strength and surprising speed make a legit three-down threat who just needs to refine his pass-rush arsenal beyond the bull rush. And he will.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Walker is something of a tweener, which is odd to say about someone who stands 6-foot-5, and weighs 275 pounds. But he can line up as a 3, 4 or 5-tech and that versatility, coupled with his non-stop motor and consistent playmaking ability, makes him an attractive option for several teams in this range looking to bolster their defensive line. He. could continue to make his way north in subsequent mock drafts after running a 4.51 40, a vertical of 35.5 inches and a mind-boggling 3-cone of 6.89 seconds.
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From
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 15
This continues to be a popular pairing in our weekly mocks, partly because the Eagles could use Dean in the middle of their D (even if, historically, they don't draft off-ball linebackers in Round 1), and in part because Dean was so dominant during the '21 season. And while he played on the best defense in the country, don't be fooled -- he didn't ride on the coattails of a dominant Georgia defensive line, Dean was a huge reason for their success. There are questions about his size and how that translates to the NFL, but his tape tells a different story.
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From
Indianapolis Colts
Round 1 - Pick 16
David Ojabo isn't a finished product -- he didn't come to the States until 2015 -- and that's what makes him so exciting. He was incredibly disruptive for Michigan last season and he's only going to get better once he understands what he's supposed to be doing, which won't take long for the Academic All-American.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Green can plays outside or inside and at Texas A&M he lined up against some of the best defensive linemen and edge rushers in the country. The Chargers need to protect all-world QB Justin Herbert and Green would be an obvious choice in the middle of the round.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
At 6-foot-5, London was a high-point-catch machine before his '21 season ended prematurely with an ankle injury. He has all the tools to be WR1, and in New Orleans, where it feels like Jameis Winston could return, London could line up alongside Michael Thomas -- or be next in line to replace him should he end up elsewhere next season.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
The Eagles have used first-rounders on wide receivers the last two years, but they'll only have four wideouts under contract after the season, and that includes J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Williams tore his ACL in the national title game but he's still one of the best players in this draft class and should be ready to contribute next October.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Admittedly, we've been all over the board with where Pickett might end up. And the truth is that we love what he accomplished last season, and Pittsburgh sometimes feels too obvious. But there is an obvious need, Pickett is a leader, he's coming off an impressive '21 season for the Panthers, and he ripped off a 4.73 40 at the combine, which betters Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes' times. In the meantime, the Steelers need to spend some free-agent dollars on fixing that O-line.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Even though McDuffie balled out on the outside for the Huskies this season, we get Tyrann Matthieu vibes when we watch him. He has the athleticism to line up anywhere -- and he told us at the combine that he can do just that at the next level. In New England, where there are reports that J.C. Jackson may be headed for free agency, McDuffie would make a lot of sense at No. 21.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Mafe had 7 sacks, 9 hits and 26 hurries in '21, and his mix of speed, bend and power was often overwhelming for opposing offensive tackles. That extended to the Senior Bowl where he dominated 1v1 and team drills, and then Mafe busted out a 4.53 40 at the combine. He may ultimately end up in Round 2 but it wouldn't be a surprise if he's among the first 32 picks.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Wyatt is another player who changed some minds with his Senior Bowl week and he continued to convince folks of his first-round talents by putting on a show at the combine. Incredibly quick off the snap and powerful once he gets going, he can be unstoppable when he's on his game.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Tyler Biadasz was good at times last season but there's certainly room for upgrading the interior OL. And if Tyler Linderbaum is still on the board, this is a layup for the front office. Linderbaum is one of the best offensive linemen, even at center, and he could certainly go much higher than this.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
 
Daxton Hill
S
Michigan
• Jr
• 6'0"
/ 192 lbs
Hill is part of a Wolverines defense that could end up seeing three players go in Round 1 next spring. He's underrated nationally but watch him play and it becomes clear pretty quickly that he's in the running for one of the best defensive backs in this class. He's listed as a safety but he can line up anywhere.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Pretty sure this is the first time in 27 mock drafts that we've had a QB going to the Titans. That's mostly because the offensive line is priority No. 1, and partly due to Ryan Tannehill being pretty good at times. Things hit a rough patch down the stretch, and the Bengals playoff loss was a huge exclamation point. So if Corral is here, Tennessee could give it some thought.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Zion Johnson is another player who went to the Senior Bowl and proved he was worthy of first-round consideration. He played left tackle at Boston College in '20, left guard in '21, and worked at guard and center in Mobile. He's a Day 1 starter at several positions.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Andrew Booth had a strong '21 season for Clemson and he's only going to get better with experience. In Green Bay, Jaire Alexander is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and while Eric Stokes had a strong rookie campaign, you can never have enough good young cornerbacks.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Penning continues to grow on us as we make our way through the pre-draft process. The man plays with an edge and the sole intent is to prove any remaining doubters wrong. He had a strong season and a dominant-at-times Senior Bowl week. And he plays with an edge, something the Dolphins O-line could use as the embark on the Mike McDaniel era.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
It looks like the Chiefs are going to soon re-up Tyreek Hill, but Byron Pringle and DeMarcus Robinson are soon-to-be free agents. Which means that, as crazy as it seems, K.C. could be in the market for more offensive weapons. Which brings us to Olave, who might be the best route runner in this group. He isn't as explosive as former teammate Garrett Wilson (though Wilson told us that he thought Olave was faster -- turns out, Wilson had the better 40 time) but he does a lot of things well and would be an immediate contributor on the Chiefs.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Faalele measured 6-foot-8, 387 pounds at the Senior Bowl, and depending on which scout you speak to, he's anywhere from a high-upside first-rounder to a late-Day 2 project. His physical tools are undeniable and he's new to the position (and football), and once he puts it all together he could be special.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 32
Burks is a contested and high-point catch machine. Don't be fooled by his 4.55 40 at the combine -- he regularly outran defensive backs to the end zone in the SEC and that won't change in the NFL. The scariest part of his game is that he's not even close to his ceiling yet.
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