No player had done more for his draft stock than Jayden Daniels, who went from Day 3 prospect to likely first-rounder in the span of a few months -- months which also saw him rightly win the Heisman Trophy. The player, you could argue, who was just as deserving? Michael Penix Jr., the Washington QB who in two years for the Huskies has looked like a completely different player than the one who transferred from Indiana.
Both players deserve to be in the QB3 conversation. And given that quarterback evaluations are more art than science, and that different teams have different ideas of what the ideal quarterback looks like, we could see any combination of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Daniels and Penix by the time we get to April 25, the first day of the 2024 NFL Draft.
For mock draft 5.0, I have the Bears trading down one spot with the Commanders, who move up for Williams, who has been my QB1 since the summer and that hasn't changed. The cost is prohibitive -- and certainly more than what the Bears paid in 2017 to go from No. 3 to No. 2 for Mitch Trubisky. But demand outstrips supply when it comes to drafting QBs, and if you fall in love with a prospect -- especially a franchise quarterback -- you're going to have to pay for the opportunity to draft him.
For this mock, the Commanders send No. 2, No. 41 and a 2025 first-rounder to the Bears for No. 1 overall pick. (Incidentally, that 41st pick was the one Chicago sent to Washington at the trade deadline for Montez Sweat.) In return, Washington, with a new head coach and general manager, get their franchise QB, and Chicago keeps Fields, drafts Marvin Harrison Jr., and gets Sweat some help with their second first-rounder, the No. 9 overall selection.
And while this looks great on paper for the Bears, this is one enormously important caveat:
The first order of business for the Bears -- even before you have the Marvin Harrison Jr. conversation -- is who is going to put Justin Fields in the best position to succeed? Because if you don't have the answer to that, nothing else matters. pic.twitter.com/bPXjcZgdcq
— ryan wilson (@ryanwilsonCBS) January 8, 2024
OK, let's get to all 32 picks -- and note, the first 18 are set now that the regular season has ended.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with me and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Check out the latest episode below!
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Mock Trade from
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Washington will have a new head coach, a new general manager and an owner looking to jumpstart an organization that has had eight straight losing seasons. It has to get the quarterback right, and while Caleb Williams is my QB1, he will have competition. And if the Commanders think they have their guy, they'll trade up to get him -- even if it's just one spot -- before someone else does. TRADE DETAILS: Washington sends No. 2, No. 41, 2025 first-rounder to Chicago for No. 1 overall pick.
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Mock Trade from
Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 2
If the Bears are sticking with Justin Fields, they'll trade down, stockpile picks and hopefully remain in range for Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
The Patriots cannot come out of this draft without a quarterback. Drake Maye could push Caleb Williams for QB1, depending on the team -- and Jayden Daniels could be in the QB2 conversation, too. This QB class is deep at the top, so different teams will have different favorites.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
The Cardinals lost on a last-second field goal in Week 18 to remain in range of Marvin Harrison Jr., and if the Bears take a QB at No. 1, Harrison will almost certainly be the pick here. If the Bears take MH2, however, Arizona can bolster the offensive line and bookend last year's first-rounder, Paris Johnson Jr., with Olu Fashanu.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
The Chargers will have a new coach and GM, but protecting Justin Herbert should remain the priority. Joe Alt will challenge Fashanu for OT1, but if either is available here, L.A. should seriously consider them.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
No player did more for their draft stock in the fall than Jayden Daniels, who went from possible Day 3 pick to first-round prospect. He reminds me of Lamar Jackson, and the Giants aren't tied to Daniel Jones beyond the 2024 season.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Is this too high for Penix? Maybe, but given the way spun it -- and ran it -- against Texas in the semifinal, not to mention the way he's played the last two years at Washington, it's hard to make the case that he won't be in the mix as a first-round pick. There are some teams that think he's more of a Day 2 prospect, but let me put it this way: Is this Falcons team better with Penix than the QBs on the roster during the 2023 season?
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Round 1 - Pick 9
The Bears trade down, recoup the pick they gave to Washington for Montez Sweat, get him a bookend edge rusher in Dallas Turner, and oh, by the way, also land Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
The Jets would love an offensive linemen here, but with the top 3 already off the board, they take WR2, who is more like WR1.5; Nabers was electric for LSU in 2023, and he will give Garrett Wilson some much-needed help in New York.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
The Vikings could be in the QB market, too, but if they re-sign Kirk Cousins, they could focus their attention on the defense, particularly edge rusher. Jared Verse is coming off another strong season, and he could be in the running for EDGE1.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
With four QBs already off the board, Denver would have to trade up to land Russell Wilson's successor; otherwise, it could target wide receiver -- and Rome Odunze, who reminds me of A.J. Brown, has been special for the Huskies this season.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Quarterback and edge rusher are considerations here, but with Tyree Wilson and Malcolm Koonce coming along as the season progressed, the secondary could be the target here. Nate Wiggins had a solid season for Clemson; he's long, fast and consistently good in coverage, but he also improved his run support in 2023.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
The Saints could go wide receiver here, too, but Brock Bowers feels like stealing at No. 14; I'll repeat what I wrote back on Dec. 4, in my last mock draft: "In the last 20 years, 19 tight ends have gone in the first round. Five of those were selected in the top 10 (Eric Ebron, 10th overall in 2014; T.J. Hockenson, 8th overall in 2019; Kellen Winslow II and Vernon Davis, 6th overall in 2004 and 2006; and Kyle Pitts, 4th overall in 2021). The other 14 were drafted between No. 19 and No. 32. I mention this because I think Brock Bowers is special. In fact, he's the No. 5 player on my big board. And maybe he's different; he'll be the tight end worth taking in the top 10." For now, though, I have him going in the middle of the round to New Orleans.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Brian Thomas flew under the radar for LSU, which is what happens when you play alongside Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels. But he's a legit first-round talent who won consistently on vertical routes and dominated at the catch point.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Newton played on an Illini defense in 2022 that included No. 5 overall pick Devon Witherspoon, as well as Day 2 selections Quan Martin and Sydney Brown. He had a strong 2023 campaign, and the Seattle defense, especially along the defensive line, is in line for some reinforcements.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
All the Jaguars had to do was beat a banged-up Titans team in Week 18 to win the division. Instead they lost, missed the playoffs altogether, and head into the offseason with more questions than answers. Trevor Lawrence struggled, and while he bears much of the responsibility, the offensive line did him no favors.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
The Bengals have tried to fortify the offensive line, but it just hasn't worked. They shouldn't quit; Mims has top-10 potential when he's healthy, something he struggled with for much of the 2023 season.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
The Packers have a history of only drafting defensive players in the first round, so I'm not going to break tradition here. Kool-Aid has legit NFL cover skills -- the only question will be his deep speed, and that would be the only reason he'd still be available here. Otherwise, there's a lot to love about his game. Added bonus: he can be an asset in the return game.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Baker Mayfield had to go to Tampa to rediscover his game, and he's playing some of the best football of his career. If the Bucs bring him back, they can focus on other parts of the offense, specifically wide receiver, where Keon Coleman's size, speed and playmaking ability could see him go off the board earlier in the round.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 21
The Cardinals landed an offensive tackle with the No. 4 pick and circle back here (with the pick from the Texans) to get Kyler Murray a playmaking wide receiver. Mitchell is long, physical and fast, but he also runs short and intermediate routes like a shifty slot receiver.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Sean McVay hasn't had a first-round pick since arriving in Los Angeles, but no team had a better draft then the Rams last spring: Steve Avila, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Puka Nacua -- the organization could legitimately have both the offensive and defensive rookies of the year, one a fifth-rounder, the other a third-rounder. I mention all that to say: expect whomever the Rams use a first-round pick on to be a future first-ballot Hall of Famer. (That's a lot of pressure on, in this case, Cooper DeJean, who is one of the best corners in this class and has return ability. Some teams even think he'll be able to play all over the secondary at the next level.)
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Depending on where Pittsburgh ends up in the final draft order, I think it should seriously consider trading up for a QB. I don't expect that to happen, though, and instead it could look for interior offensive line help, or help in the secondary. Lassiter's long and he's physical, both in coverage and in run support. The ball production isn't there yet, but that'll come.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
The Dolphins' O-line battled injuries all season, and Fautanu, who has excelled at left tackle for Washington this season, could kick inside at the next level.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Barton played left tackle his final three seasons at Duke, and he was the anchor of that unit, but his NFL future will be inside, either at guard or center.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Left tackle Donovan Smith is a free agent after the season, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor hasn't lived up to his contract. Rookie Wanya Morris has been capable in spot duty, but NFL teams are intrigued by Tyler Guyton's size and athleticism.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 27
The biggest issues facing Latu will be if he's cleared medically after a neck injury sidelined his career a few years ago. Because on the field, he was unstoppable during the 2023 season.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Trice only had seven sacks during the season -- including two against Texas and Quinn Ewers in the semifinal matchup -- but he also led all of FBS in QB pressures with 77 in 14 games. Now line him up opposite of Aidan Hutchinson in Detroit and imagine what that looks like.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
The Bills have six defensive linemen who could be free agents after the season, and while T'Vondre Sweat deservedly gets a lot of the pub, teammate Byron Murphy II is a twitched-up playmaker who could find his way into Round 1.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
We've been talking about Mitchell on the "With the First Pick" podcast for much of the fall, and while he'll need to refine his technique, he has all the physical tools you look for in an NFL cornerback. He's also a PBU machine.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
There are very few holes on this roster, but Chase Young, Cle Ferrell and Randy Gregory could be free agents after the season. Chop Robinson plays with one of the highest motors in football.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Morgan is an athletic tackle who moves well in space. He'll need to get stronger at the point, but you can't coach his movement skills.
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The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
