Most NFL mock drafts focus around the analyst's predictions of what will happen in Round 1, but this is not most mock drafts. I've been tracking changes to draft odds in the betting market for more than a week at SportsLine, where I also put together mock drafts based solely around a snapshot of the odds market one month out and one week out from draft day. Today, we're bringing that market-focused mock draft to CBS Sports with our odds-based mock draft one day out from the start of the draft.
What this means: If a player's draft position odds all point one way, we'll find a way to make that happen -- provided the math works out, as we're not going to force 33 first-round picks, for example -- after we go through the odds for who will be selected in each of the first 10 picks. If a player seemingly doesn't quite line up for the prospect that's pointing to that pick, we'll look to engineer a few trades to make sure we're staying aligned with the market rather than defer to the team in the slot currently.
We'll also take into account other available odds to make a pick in certain spots. Here's an example: We know Caleb Williams is going No. 1 overall, and four other players have minus odds to be top-five picks, including J.J. McCarthy. But McCarthy isn't the favorite to go in any specific slot in the top five. But No. 5 is pretty evenly split among several players, and one who is the favorite at some sites -- Malik Nabers -- is also the favorite for No. 6. So that's a spot where we'll figure out a trade for McCarthy like many mock drafters before us.
One other unique element to this mock draft is that we can go deeper than Round 1 as we have draft position odds for 54 players, which doesn't include Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye at the top of the draft. So after our look at how the odds are projecting the first round, we'll share how the stock of every other available player is pointing.
This mock is built based on the odds from Circa in Las Vegas, which can be a bellwether for odds movements nationally, as well as Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel. Let's get into it.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.
Round 1
2024 NFL Mock Draft
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1, Pick 1
Williams is -20000 to go No. 1, meaning you have to risk $200 to win $1. It's the most obvious pick in the draft for the betting market, for good reason.
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Round 1, Pick 2
While the market for No. 2 got a bit muddled late last week following TopGolfGate, the market is now strongly attaching Daniels to this pick, with his odds sitting at -450 to -650.
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Round 1, Pick 3
With Daniels solidifying at No. 2 in the odds market, Maye is doing the same at No. 3, though Caesars still only has him at -235 as of around noon ET on Wednesday despite being the book with the strongest position on Daniels at No. 2. He's -290 to -330 elsewhere, so he's our pick here.
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Round 1, Pick 4
A trade is possible at this spot, but Harrison is around -225 to go No. 4 overall as of Wednesday morning, so he's our pick for this mock.
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Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1, Pick 5
McCarthy moved to a slight favorite to go No. 5 at DraftKings on Wednesday, while FanDuel still had Malik Nabers a decent bit ahead and Caesars had four players (including Harrison and Joe Alt) with basically the same odds around +200. However, McCarthy is -145 to -160 to be a top-five pick at DraftKings and FanDuel, and everyone else is at plus odds, so he's our pick. The Vikings are the clear favorite to end up with McCarthy at those two books as well, so they send No. 11 and 23 to get to this slot.
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Round 1, Pick 6
Nabers is anywhere from +105 to +170 to be the No. 6 pick but favored at all three sites I've tracked with that market, so we slot him in here to the Giants.
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Mock Trade from
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1, Pick 8
Odunze is third on the No. 8 overall board behind Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu, who are around even with each other at various books. But Odunze is also at least -150 to go Under 8.5 everywhere, so like with McCarthy we're going to force a trade to get him into the proper position. The Colts have receiver as the second favorite to be their first pick, so the Falcons receive No. 15, 46 and a 2025 fourth-rounder to trade down. Another reason to punt on the No. 8 overall odds: Only one has Turner at minus odds to be a top-10 pick, while none have Latu in that range.
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Round 1, Pick 9
Murphy is now the favorite to go at No. 9 at DraftKings and FanDuel, and while Dallas Turner remains the favorite to be the first defender drafted, his draft position odds have continued to trend toward Over 9.5, which Circa has at -205 juice as of Wednesday. By contrast, Murphy's odds to go Under his draft position (ranging from 13.5 to 16.5 at various books) have snowballed to the Under, with Circa posting -345 on Under 14.5 on Wednesday. Also worth noting: Books seem to be coalescing around Jared Verse as the third option for this pick behind Murphy and Odunze rather than Turner or Laiatu Latu. This could also be a trade-down spot as the Bears have only four picks, and the teams in the teens that may have fallen for Murphy know they need to get aggressive.
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Round 1, Pick 10
The obvious connection in mocks is also the obvious play in the odds market, which has Bowers as the clear favorite at No. 10.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1, Pick 11
The Chargers pass on the opportunity to select Joe Alt and instead pick up extra draft capital before taking Latham to play on the right side of the O-line. He's up to the -205 to -230 to go Under 14.5 at Circa, Caesars and DraftKings, and while FanDuel still has him juiced Over 13.5, they've scaled that price back heading into Wednesday.
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Round 1, Pick 12
Quarterback has been heavily favored to be the Broncos' first pick for much of the predraft process but lately the odds market has shifted to make defensive line/edge either favored or close to it. This could certainly be a trade down to allow Denver to take Bo Nix later in the draft, or the Broncos could use future draft capital to help get into position for him in Round 2. Turner and Laiatu Latu are trending toward either other in the odds market but Turner's stock still seems slightly higher, though both are pointing around this pick.
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Round 1, Pick 13
The betting market is projecting Fuaga to go right around this pick, and he seems like the perfect fit for the Raiders at right tackle. He's juiced Over 12.5 and Under 13.5 at different books, so he's our pick here.
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Round 1, Pick 14
Another obvious match here with the Saints in dire need of tackle help with Trevor Penning a recent bust at left tackle and Ryan Ramczyk a question mark at right tackle due to injury. The odds market has him juiced Over 13.5 and Under 14.5, so it makes sense to match him up with a tackle-needy team in New Orleans.
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Mock Trade from
Indianapolis Colts
Round 1, Pick 15
Latu is the slight favorite to go No. 8 at DraftKings and either the same odds or close to it at Caesars and FanDuel. He's at least -220 to go Under 16.5 at all books, so we have to get him in here even if Quinyon Mitchell's draft stock is circling around No. 15.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1, Pick 16
The Eagles are reportedly in the market to move up and are -160 to go cornerback first, the Seahawks are always a trade-down candidate, and the former has an extra second-round pick while the latter doesn't have one at all. It's the perfect match to keep Mitchell near where the market is valuing him around No. 15, which is likely pinning him as a great fit for a Colts team that traded up in this mock. The Eagles trade No. 22 and 50 to the Seahawks for No. 16 and 81.
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Round 1, Pick 17
Mitchell's value is around No. 16 and he's a fit here with the Jaguars -185 to take a cornerback with their first pick. Two other players are in the mix to be top 17 picks but have seen clear movement to their Overs, so we'll slot them in next.
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Round 1, Pick 18
While Fautanu was circling around the end of the top 15 for much of the last week, he steamed toward Over 15.5 on Wednesday, with sportsbooks making him -180 to -230 to go outside the top 15. That puts him into range for the Bengals who are -185 to go offensive lineman with their first pick.
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Round 1, Pick 19
Verse is interestingly the third favorite to go No. 9 overall, but all four of the books we're tracking have him juiced to go Over 15.5 or 16.5, so he should get into this range for the Rams, who are just +105 to go O-line first with defensive line/edge at +180.
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Round 1, Pick 20
The market has been able to sniff out the Steelers' pick in the past, and Barton has seen his odds steam toward Under 21.5 for the last few days to the point where he's now around -260 at three books, while the other has moved him to -148 to go Under 20.5.
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Round 1, Pick 21
Mims' market stock is around No. 22, and the Dolphins are -175 to go with an offensive lineman first, so we're going to slot him in slightly early with no other player directly pointing toward this draft slot in the market.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1, Pick 22
Over the past week, Thomas' stock has gone from the No. 15-17 range to heavily favored to go Over 19.5, and once he gets into the 20s he's a clear trade-up target for a few receiver-needy teams. The Bills are -280 to take a receiver first but the stock for the player expected to be available around their slot -- Adonai Mitchell -- appears to be dropping. So they trade a 2025 third-round pick to the Seahawks, who previously moved into this slot from No. 16, to get Thomas.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1, Pick 23
Thomas would've been a great pull for the Chargers after passing on a receiver at No. 5 to trade down and take an O-lineman, but with him now off the board, they pivot to a cornerback who the market is projecting right around No. 22 or 23.
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Round 1, Pick 24
The Cowboys are -215 to take an offensive lineman first, and Guyton has moved to a heavy favorite to go Under 27.5, making him the next offensive lineman up in terms of stock as dictated by the odds. It's an obvious fit for Dallas here.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1, Pick 25
Robinson is now heavily juiced to go Under 25.5 so we have to get him into our top 25 somehow. The Packers just went with an edge rusher last year so their fit might be questionable, while defensive line/edge is a co-favorite for the Cardinals' second pick at Caesars. With Robinson's stock on the rise, the Cardinals swap No. 104 for No. 126 in order to move up two slots and nab him.
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Round 1, Pick 26
Tampa Bay's consolation prize for missing out on Chop Robinson is a player with the same last name, as Darius Robinson has trended Under 27.5 in recent days. With the Bucs favored to go defensive line/edge first while others in this range could be eyeing O-linemen, this is an easy match for us.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1, Pick 27
The Packers trade down two spots before living up to -170 expectations they'll go offensive lineman first. Morgan or Jackson Powers-Johnson could be the pick for them as both are juiced Under 31.5 or 32.5, but while Powers-Johnson's stock is slightly higher, Morgan gives the Packers a potential option at tackle.
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Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1, Pick 28
The Seahawks are -150 to go offensive lineman first, which is partially tied to who is expected to be selected in the range of their initial pick, but we're going to stick with an offensive lineman for them here as Powers-Johnson is heavily juiced Under 31.5.
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Round 1, Pick 29
The Lions are favored to go with a corner with their first pick, and McKinstry's stock has surpassed Nate Wiggins in the odds market, with the former around -170 to go Under 29.5 but having mostly balanced juice at 28.5. That points to him being the option for Detroit here.
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Mock Trade from
Baltimore Ravens
Round 1, Pick 30
The Ravens are -230 to go O-line first but get shut out by the picks ahead of them, so instead they're the team to trade out of Round 1 and allow the Raiders to come up for Penix, who is all the way up to the -250 to -320 range to go Under 32.5 at the various sportsbooks. A 2025 second-round pick in addition to No. 44 is a bit of a premium for Vegas to pay, but it's similar to past trades up when a QB is involved. The Raiders are the favorite to end up with Penix at both DraftKings and FanDuel as well.
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Mock Trade from
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1, Pick 31
We have four players left who are heavy favorites to go in Round 1, but the stock of two (Adonai Mitchell and Nate Wiggins) is trending downward so we'll focus on the other two. Newton is -180 to go Under 31.5 or 32.5 across the board so we need to slot him in somewhere. The 49ers aren't the best fit, and the Texans are expected to try to trade back into Round 1 as they're in win-now mode. He's a good fit for another attacking presence in DeMeco Ryans' defense. Houston gives up No. 42, 86 and 188 to get up to this pick.
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Round 1, Pick 32
No trade here to close it out, as Worthy's stock is circling around No. 32 and the Chiefs are favored to end up with him.
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Select Market-based Picks
Rounds 2-7
Round 2, Pick 1 (33)
McConkey is between -150 and -180 to go Under 34.5, so we're giving him the edge over Adonai Mitchell here with the Panthers -175 to take a receiver first.
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Round 2, Pick 2 (34)
The Patriots stop the fall of Mitchell, who is up to the -200 range to go Over 27.5 at three books and even -180 to go Over 28.5 at Circa, which suggests the Bills aren't seen as a viable landing spot despite their need. Drake Maye has a new go-to receiver.
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Round 2, Pick 3 (35)
The Cardinals send Wiggins' slide with his odds going from around a balanced 26.5 on Tuesday to the -220 range on the Over by Wednesday. Two books also have him juiced to Over 28.5, suggesting he could get selected after Kool-Aid McKinstry at this point.
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Round 2, Pick 4 (36)
Suamataia is -190 to go Over 32.5, which isn't enough juice to expect he'll last long on Day 2. The Commanders should be in the market for left tackle help after adding their franchise QB earlier.
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Round 2, Pick 5 (37)
The Chargers just missed out on Brian Thomas at No. 23 after trading down from No. 5, but they'll have the opportunity to add to their receiver room with this pick. Legette is -125 to go Over 35.5 at Circa so this is the range perceived by the market.
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Mock Trade from
Tennessee Titans
Round 2, Pick 7 (38)
While Nix has remained heavily juiced to go Over 32.5, that position softened a bit in the market from Tuesday to Wednesday. Denver can't afford to wait long to make a move on Nix, who is -140 to wind up in Denver somehow. He's -145 to go Over 34.5 at Circa as of this writing, so this is the range they should be targeting, and adding a 2025 second-rounder to No. 76 and 121 will get them there.
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From
New York Giants
Round 2, Pick 7 (39)
Rakestraw's draft position prop is set at 41.5 with even juice on both sides so this is his range. The Panthers could double up on receivers here but also need cornerback help.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 2, Pick 8 (40)
The market had been circling Coleman around No. 42 to 44 for most of the past week, but he saw a major move toward the top of Round 2 on Wednesday, with -190 Under juice on 40.5 at Circa. That suggests the Commanders should be his floor here, and it makes sense to pair their new franchise QB with a young receiver with whom he can develop.
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Round 2, Pick 11 (43)
The Falcons passed on the opportunity to select Byron Murphy in the first round, instead trading down before taking an edge rusher. They instead attack the interior of the line here with Fiske, who is -120 to go Over 40.5, so the market is projecting him in this No. 41-44 range.
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Mock Trade from
Indianapolis Colts
Round 2, Pick 14 (46)
The Falcons added this pick in the trade down with Indy from No. 8 to 15, and they use it on a third defensive piece for new coach Raheem Morris. Cooper's line is at 46.5 with even juice on both sides, so this is his range in the market.
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Round 2, Pick 16 (48)
Some have said receiver is a possibility for the Jaguars in Round 1 after they were unable to retain Calvin Ridley, but they weren't a fit in this mock for Brian Thomas with his stock dropping. Instead they get Franklin, who is now juiced -140 to Over 45.5 at Circa.
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Round 2, Pick 25 (57)
The only safety in the betting market is -160 to go Over 52.5 at DraftKings, which means our options start at No. 53 with the Eagles. I'll follow the juice and drop him a few more slots to get him to the Bucs, as Nubin has talked about modeling his game after fellow Gophers safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who may only have one year left in Tampa if the team can't agree to a deal with their franchise-tagged star.
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Round 2, Pick 27 (59)
Wilson's line is set at 60.5 with even juice on both sides, and his best fit among teams picking in this range seems to be the Texans, who brought him in for a visit.
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Round 2, Pick 29 (61)
 
Roman Wilson
WR
Michigan
• 6'0"
/ 192 lbs
Wilson's window for us starts at No. 60 with Buffalo, who traded up for a receiver earlier, as he's -155 to go Over 59.5. I could see the Lions taking a receiver in Round 2 after focusing on defense in the first round, so let's slot him in at No. 61.
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Round 3, Pick 2 (66)
Brooks is -140 to go Over 62.5, so his window starts near the end of Round 2 beyond the Cowboys' selection at No. 56 as the obvious fit. The Cardinals have picked up a receiver, edge rusher and corner already in this mock, and they can afford to let Brooks get healthy as the heir apparent to James Conner in the running game.
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Round 3, Pick 4 (68)
The Chargers would be the obvious fit for Benson but the juice on 68.5 is toward the Under and they pick 69th, so instead we send him to the Patriots where he joins the mix with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson.
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Mock Trade from
Denver Broncos
Round 3, Pick 12 (76)
The Broncos traded this pick as part of the package to get into the early second round for Bo Nix, and the Titans are able to use it on edge rush help and address a need by taking Trice, who is -120 to go Under 77.5.
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Round 3, Pick 13 (77)
Sanders' draft stock in the market has hopped around a bit, settling around 80 for most of the past week before jumping up to 75.5 with balanced juice as of Wednesday. That puts him in range for the Raiders, who have Michael Mayer as their top option at the position but brought in Sanders for a draft visit anyway.
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Round 3, Pick 16 (80)
Sinnott's draft position line has settled around 80.5, so this is dead center of his range. The Bengals are likely not going to have a chance at Brock Bowers in the first round without a trade up, so this could be a worthy Plan B option at the position.
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Round 3, Pick 23 (87)
Corum is -125 to land Over 84.5, so this could be the right spot for the Cowboys to address their need at running back if they don't want to reach on someone in the second round.
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Round 3, Pick 25 (89)
Rattler is -135 to go Over 85.5, and the Bucs have two picks in this range with No. 89 and No. 92. It could be time to turn over the QB2 position behind Baker Mayfield after spending a Round 2 pick on Kyle Trask three years ago.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 4, Pick 10 (110)
The Chargers just missed out on Trey Benson earlier in this mock, but Allen's line is at 110.5 with balanced juice on both sides. The Chargers have two picks early in the fourth round, and Allen would figure to be a great fit in Greg Roman's scheme if they use one on him to compete with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards rather than address the position earlier.
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Round 4, Pick 17 (117)
The Colts traded into the top 10 early in this mock but used their pick on Rome Odunze instead of Brock Bowers, who has been connected to them if he slips past the Jets. They address the position here with Stover, who is lined at 116.5.
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Round 4, Pick 30 (130)
Christian's younger brother is lined at 130.5, and he could be an option for the Ravens at this pick or the Chiefs with the next pick if they want more depth at receiver. After that interestingly enough comes the 49ers, which would mean a family reunion.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 5, Pick 1 (136)
Pratt is -120 to Under 137.5 at Circa but -120 to Over 135.5 at Caesars, so he'll slot in for either the Broncos or Patriots at the beginning of Round 5 in this mock. Let's go with Denver double-dipping at the position to give them more options after trading up for Bo Nix on Day 2.
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