There were a lot of people asking a lot of questions about Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars coming into Week 11, with Jacksonville fresh off an ugly home beatdown courtesy of the 49ers. There were whispers about Lawrence for a number of different reasons. Plenty of people were questioning the offense. Chatter was building about Lawrence failing to live up to his lofty pre-draft expectations. The Jaguars, even at 6-3, were being viewed as a paper tiger. Was Lawrence completely healthy?
None of those things seemed remotely like an issue on Sunday in a dominant division win, a 34-14 beatdown of the Titans that was basically out of hand early in the second half when Lawrence lunged into the end zone to make it 20-0.
The Will Levis-led Titans offense didn't have enough juice in the tank to muster anything remotely resembling a comeback -- both of Levis' touchdown passes merely served to cut the Titans deficit down to 20 points.
And it was hard not to think about the 2022 Jaguars as this evisceration was occurring. Last year the Jaguars, under then first-year head coach Doug Pederson, struggled their way to a 3-7 record through the first 10 weeks of the season. They went into their Week 11 bye with many of the same questions lingering around Lawrence, with people writing him off after a year-and-a-half, most of which was spent riding aboard the derailed-before-departure Urban Meyer Express.
When Week 12 came around, the Jags surprised Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, winning as a 3.5-point home dog. They'd get blown out by the Lions the following week but then didn't lose another game until they traveled to Kansas City for the divisional round of the playoffs.
Jacksonville's schedule is much more difficult this year ... or at least it was. Matchups against the Ravens (minus Mark Andrews), Bengals (minus Joe Burrow) and Browns (minus Deshaun Watson) suddenly become substantially easier to navigate. The Titans are on the schedule one more time and the Jags haven't even played the Panthers yet.
The Jaguars should win a minimum of four more games this season, which would get them to 11 wins and all but guarantee a playoff berth and likely a division title. The Texans won again on Sunday meaning there's still a lot to be decided when it comes to the AFC South. Week 12's matchup in Houston might very well be a de facto division title game; a Jags win gives them a 90% chance of landing the division title belt per the Upshot, whereas a Texans victory gives them a 60% chance to win. It's a massive game.
Obviously the situation is massively different than last year too, as the Jags were 6-3 coming into Sunday, versus 3-7 when they started ripping off wins last year. In 2022, the upside was stealing the division title at the last minute from Tennessee and hosting a playoff game. In 2023, the upside might very well be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Get your diapers ready
Dan Campbell joked about his family needing diapers to watch the Lions play because he's constantly going for it on fourth downs. On Sunday, Lions fans needed a pallet full of Oops! with the thrill ride Campbell's team gave them en route to a wild 31-26 comeback win over the lowly Bears at Ford Field.
I'm not sure if the Lions were looking ahead to Thanksgiving and a Thursday home matchup against the Packers or if the Bears just brought their "A" game with Justin Fields back on the field for the first time in a few weeks. But Detroit looked off in a bad way for most of this game.
Jared Goff's been one of the top two or three quarterbacks in the NFC this year and he was dreadful for most of this game, throwing a pair of inexplicable early interceptions before adding a third one later. But when the chips were down, Goff played like the top-tier quarterback we've seen all season, finding Jameson Williams for a 32-yard touchdown and setting up a go-ahead goal-line plunge for David Montgomery.
The Lions nearly covered -- it would have been a total travesty and an all-time bad beat -- but a Fields fumble went out of the end zone to give them just a five-point victory after three unanswered fourth-quarter scores. All that happened after Cairo Santos kicked a field goal to give the Bears a 26-14 lead with just over four minutes left in the game.
Chicago's win probability was as high as 97.3%. NFL teams trailing by 12+ points with less than five minutes left entered Week 11 0-84 on the season. The Lions themselves entered this game 1-121 since 2000 when trailing by 12+ points with five minutes remaining. To say this was unlikely is quite the understatement.
The miracle victory moves the Lions to 8-2, the first time since 1962 they've been this good 10 games into the season. That year their defensive coordinator was ... Don Shula.
And while dominating the Bears at home is always more impressive than pulling a rabbit out of a hat, there's something to be said for a victory like this from Detroit. Campbell went for it on fourth and short last week to seal a win over the Chargers in a shootout and then Goff managed to lead a stunning comeback. Winning in different ways is a good thing, when a team is as consistent as Detroit's proven to be this year.
Detroit draws the Packers in a few days and could -- depending on Monday night's Eagles-Chiefs game -- jump into the top spot in the NFC. Even if they have to wait, the Lions (vs. GB, at Saints, vs. Bears) schedule the next three weeks is much softer than the Eagles (at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers) and in a month's time we might well be talking about the Lions as the top team in the NFC.
