At the beginning of the week there were two top waiver adds; Mark Walton and Jaylen Samuels. The biggest difference between the two was that Samuels' value was contingent on James Conner missing time. That contingency came through and Samuels now projects as a top-12 running back in Week 9.
Without Conner or Benny Snell, I project 16 carries and five targets for Samuels against a Colts defense that has been up and down this season against running backs.
The absence of T.Y. Hilton only helped Samuels' value as I find it less likely the Colts will put up a big number and make the Steelers throw the ball 40 times. But even when they do throw, I'd expect Samuels to be heavily involved in the passing game as well.
Own Conner but missed on his backup? There are still a couple of guys available on waiver wire, they just won't be as good as Samuels.
Week 9 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 9 at this time. Here's what it means:
Edmonds may lose his backup role to Drake once David Johnson comes back. I'd like to hold him but understand if you can't.
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Numbers to know
- 37.9% - Broken-tackle rate for Darrell Henderson, tops among players with at least 25 attempts. I'm trying to hold him as a stash.
- 146 - Air yards for Miles Sanders, the most among running backs.
- 13.9% - Target share for Austin Ekeler since Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry came back. That's not enough when you're only getting 3-5 carries per game.
- 1 - Touchdown for Leonard Fournette despite the fact he's on pace for more than 2,000 total yards.
- 5 - Catches in three games for Le'Veon Bell since Sam Darnold returned. He had more than that in two of three games without Darnold.
- 21 - Touches for James White in three full games with Rex Burkhead this year.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Mattison has spent most of this season in the stash section, but he has double-digit carries in two of his past three games and at least 50 yards in four of his past six. Jamaal Williams, Royce Freeman and Duke Johnson have all scored on this Chiefs defense in secondary roles, and Mattison could get as much work as any of those guys.
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Johnson looked like the best back last week, and I'm hopeful that will earn him more touches. At the very least, he's used more in the passing game than Carson, and that's the best place to find success against the Raiders. Carson was also limited in practice this wee. If he's out Johnson would vault ahead of Mattison.
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Carson got the most touches for the Lions in Week 8. At the very least that makes him interesting against a bad defense like the Raiders. But you have to be really desperate to start him. Just watch the injury report on Sunday morning, because he's questionable.
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Guice is the top stash priority. He's supposed to be back for Week 11 and that's right when the run schedule gets easier for Washington.
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Much like Mattison, Pollard is just one injury away from a featured role in a very good situation. I prefer Mattison because of Cook's injury history, but both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.
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Edwards is looking at 15-20 touches per game with goal-line opportunities if Ingram goes down.
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DFS Plays
The pricing is really tight on FanDuel this week, so this value stands out like a sore thumb. I can't make a case for sitting him in cash games and it's not easy to make the case in tournaments. It's a lot easier to just play Samuels and get creative somewhere else.
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I'm glad Walton struggled a little bit against the Steelers. The fumble helps too. I wouldn't want to play a Dolphins running back as chalk, but I'll have plenty of exposure in tournaments with a low price and low ownership.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 24.67 | 30.49 |
2 | 2 | Dalvin Cook | 21.07 | 24.78 |
3 | 3 | Ezekiel Elliott | 20.75 | 24.00 |
5 | 4 | Leonard Fournette | 18.05 | 23.24 |
6 | 5 | Saquon Barkley | 17.21 | 21.81 |
4 | 6 | Nick Chubb | 18.77 | 21.25 |
8 | 7 | Aaron Jones | 16.53 | 20.77 |
10 | 8 | Jaylen Samuels | 15.45 | 19.43 |
7 | 9 | Josh Jacobs | 17.04 | 18.96 |
11 | 10 | Chris Carson | 14.69 | 17.50 |
9 | 11 | Tevin Coleman | 15.75 | 17.27 |
13 | 12 | Le'Veon Bell | 13.11 | 16.33 |
15 | 13 | Phillip Lindsay | 12.34 | 15.72 |
20 | 14 | Mark Walton | 10.81 | 15.02 |
14 | 15 | Marlon Mack | 12.85 | 14.90 |
23 | 16 | Austin Ekeler | 9.96 | 14.37 |
12 | 17 | Derrick Henry | 13.34 | 14.18 |
18 | 18 | Melvin Gordon | 11.32 | 13.69 |
16 | 19 | Mark Ingram | 11.46 | 13.42 |
19 | 20 | David Montgomery | 10.90 | 13.06 |
26 | 21 | Jamaal Williams | 9.49 | 12.75 |
25 | 22 | Royce Freeman | 10 | 12.57 |
36 | 23 | James White | 7.06 | 12.49 |
22 | 24 | Lesean McCoy | 10.00 | 12.44 |
17 | 25 | Sony Michel | 11.35 | 11.87 |
21 | 26 | Jordan Howard | 10.55 | 11.25 |
29 | 27 | Kenyan Drake | 8.58 | 11.14 |
24 | 28 | Adrian Peterson | 9.73 | 11.12 |
31 | 29 | Devin Singletary | 8.10 | 10.33 |
32 | 30 | Duke Johnson | 7.74 | 10.30 |
40 | 31 | Tarik Cohen | 5.59 | 10.12 |
27 | 32 | Carlos Hyde | 9.40 | 10.00 |
30 | 33 | Ronald Jones | 8.45 | 9.92 |
28 | 34 | Frank Gore | 9 | 9.89 |
35 | 35 | Miles Sanders | 7.33 | 9.73 |
34 | 36 | Ty Johnson | 7.37 | 9.49 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 9 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
