While we've tried to bury them before, it seems pretty obvious that the changing of the guard is happening at quarterback, whether Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson like it or not. What was less clear a couple of years ago was if we'd have any younger quarterbacks step up to take their place. After a slow start, Justin Fields is looking like he's well on his way, and Tua Tagovailoa looks like he's already there. Those are just a couple of the guys I wrote about in this week's Believe It or Not, let's start with Tagovailoa.

Tua Tagovailoa is a top-5 QB rest of season

The Case: Tagovailoa currently ranks as QB6 per game at 23.6 FPPG and that includes Week 4 when he only played 25 snaps before leaving the game against the Bengals with a concussion. Since his Week 7 return, he's averaged 27.7 FPPG, throwing for 684 yards and six touchdowns in his last two games combined. This Dolphins offense is for real and Tagovailoa has league-winning upside with all these weapons.

The Verdict: Believe it

You can't rank him ahead of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Patrick Mahomes. And I would take Lamar Jackson as well, assuming Mark Andrews' absence isn't a long one. After that, it comes down to Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Fields, Kyler Murray, and maybe Justin Herbert. We'll talk more about Fields later, but Burrow and Herbert's current receiving corps can't match Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. And no one has been able to match Tagovailoa as a passer this year.

He leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.2), TD% (6.9%), passer rating (115.9) and a host of other statistics. He's averaging two more air yards per pass attempt and yet his completion percentage has gone up to 69.9% this year. There is certainly some regression coming in the future, but we have every reason to believe he'll be one of the most efficient passers in football and a top-five quarterback rest of season.

Adam Thielen is droppable

The Case: I have to give our podcast host Adam Aizer credit for some of the topics this week -- he helped me out during our Sunday night recap. And when he first gave me this one I thought he was crazy, but Thielen is WR40 per game, has now produced single-digit Fantasy points in half of his games this season, and just saw new addition T.J. Hockenson receive nine targets in his debut with the team. That does not sound like a must-roster wide receiver.

The Verdict: Don't believe it

Thielen is averaging 4.8 catches per game compared to 5.2 in 2021. His yardage has fallen from 55.8 to 52.3. Still, that's an average of 10 PPR Fantasy points before considering touchdowns. And the touchdowns are what is missing. From 2018 through 2021, Thielen scored once every 10 targets. This year he's scored twice on 57 targets. You shouldn't expect a total rebound, but he's still a No. 3 wide receiver who should score more often moving forward.

You could consider dropping Thielen in a non-PPR league where you only start two receivers and non flexes, but I still expect he has some big games left and you may regret it even in that format.

You should buy high on Christian Kirk

The Case: Kirk has 26 targets over his last three games and is coming off his second-best game of the season, a 21.6-point outburst against the Raiders. After a mid-season lull, he looks to be firmly entrenched as Trevor Lawrence's No. 1 wide receiver. If his Fantasy manager thinks he's selling high, you should buy. Kirk is a No. 2 wide receiver rest of season.

The Verdict: Believe it

Kirk's swoon is more easily explained when you look at the schedule. Every team he played from Week 5-8 ranks in the bottom five in terms of Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. And Week 4 was the Philadelphia, which is no cup of tea either. It was just an absolutely brutal stretch of opponents. His next three games are against Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions. Kirk isn't just a No. 2, he's a high-end No. 2 rest of season.

D'Onta Foreman is still a reliable Fantasy starter

The Case: He had a back-to-back game with 118 yards rushing and averaged more than 90 yards from scrimmage in his final six games of 2021 with the Titans. We shouldn't let one (disastrous) game change our opinion on Foreman. Besides, it's not like there are 24 starting running backs who we can count on to deliver a 100% success rate. If you bench your No. 2 running back after every bad game, you're going to miss a lot of bounceback efforts.

The Verdict: Believe it...for one more week

Foreman faces the same Falcons team he just lit up for 118 yards and three touchdowns. He's at home on a short week and we still don't know when Chuba Hubbard will be 100%. I'm giving Foreman one more week as a No. 2 running back, then I'm preparing to bench him for a while. After Week 10 the Panthers have the Ravens, Broncos, then a bye. 

Justin Fields is/will be the best QB in his draft class

The Case: Since Week 5, Fields is averaging 28.3 FPPG, trailing only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes at the quarterback position. He has 49 rush attempts in his last four games combined, including Sunday's monster 15-carry, 178-yard performance against the Dolphins. It feels like he's locked up being the best Fantasy QB in his draft class and there's really no one challenging him to be the best real-life quarterback either.

The Verdict: Believe it

As much as he does with his legs, he's hanging right with this class in passing efficiency as well. He actually leads the class in TD% and AY/A this season and he's second in passer rating and yards per pass attempt. It's even more impressive that he's done this without a true No. 1 wide receiver. Adding Chase Claypool will only help as the chemistry grows between Fields and his new pass catcher.

There is still hope that Trevor Lawrence could improve or Trey Lance could one day meet his potential, but as of right now there's no reason to believe anyone other than Fields will be the best quarterback from the 2021 Draft class. If they go out and get him a true No. 1 next offseason he may challenge to be the best Fantasy QB in any class.