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For this exercise, we're looking at NFBC ADP data, comparing the past week – March 10-17 – to the first nine days of March, looking at who has seen the biggest gains and drops in value. Some of these should come as no surprise if you've been reading this newsletter and following the news, but there are a few notable changes worth knowing about. 

Here's whose value has increased the most over the past week: 

Joel Payamps, MLW, P -- Early-March: 588.95; Past week: 356.3

Okay, I guess I need to move Payamps down in my rankings. In the aftermath of Devin Williams' back injury, I moved Payamps up to around 150 in my rankings, but I guess everyone doesn't share my assumption that he's going to be the closer for the Brewers. I'm perfectly willing to keep Payamps ranked ahead of the consensus here, but I could move him down 100 spots and still potentially be the high guy in the room on him. Abner Uribe is going about 100 picks behind Payamps, with Trevor Megill another 100 picks later. 

Gavin Stone, LAD, P -- Early-March: 467.04; Past week: 355.01

Stone is one of my favorite late-round sleeper picks at pitcher these days, and I'm taking him 75 picks ahead of even the updated ADP. He's almost certainly going to open the season in the Dodgers rotation, and this is a guy we were extremely excited to see make his MLB debut last season. He dealt with a spring injury that messed up his mechanics and led to a pitch-tipping issue last season, but he also has a career 3.19 ERA and 33% strikeout rate, so I'll bet on him figuring it out and showing some upside this season. 

Victor Scott, STL, OF -- Early-March: 551.62; Past week: 426.61

I think if Scott were announced as the Cardinals Opening Day center fielder right now, he'd be a top 150 pick in the rest of the drafts. Scott hit .303/.369/.425 with 94 steals in 132 games in the minors last season, with significantly better quality of contact metrics than someone like Esteury Ruiz has managed. Scott might just be overwhelmed in the majors and sent down after just a few weeks, but he certainly hasn't looked it in spring yet – he's hitting .367/.457/.433 with just four strikeouts in 35 plate appearances – and he's a dark horse to lead the majors in steals this season. I'll throw one of my reserve-round picks at him every single time. 

Jackson Merrill, SD, SS -- Early-March: 375.27; Past week: 303.14

Merrill will be the Opening Day center fielder for the Padres when they take on the Dodgers in two days, and he needs to be drafted in all leagues as a result. His minor-league numbers won't jump off the page – he hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 homers and 15 steals – but he's a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball who will be making his MLB debut before his 21st birthday. He's no Jackson Holliday, but he's the cheapest blue chip prospect you'll be able to draft this week. 

Nick Lodolo, CIN, P -- Early-March: 294.94; Past week: 241.43

Lodolo may not be ready for the first turn through the rotation, but it sounds like he's put the stress reaction in his left leg behind him and isn't much behind schedule at this point. He made his spring debut against the Mariners this weekend, striking out four while allowing four baserunners in 2.2 innings of work. Lodolo has an elite 29.3% strikeout rate in 137.2 MLB innings for his career, and he had a 3.66 ERA back in 2022 when he was a rookie. If he does that again over 150 or so innings, Lodolo is going to be a steal. 

Jonathan India, CIN, 2B -- Early-March: 303.45; Past week: 248.53

India is finally playing in spring action, and he's homered twice in his first two games, which is great to see. But, I've gotta be honest … I don't love drafting him here. Noelvi Marte's suspension and TJ Friedl's injury have cleared up some of the log jam in the Reds lineup, but India has questions even with those two out of the picture to open the season. If he repeats what he did last season, it's a steal – he was on a near 20-20 pace with 190 runs and RBI last season – but he also hit just .226 with two steals in 26 games after the All-Star break as he dealt with a plantar fasciitis issue that has continued to plague him through the offseason and into spring. India has a decent ceiling, I suppose, but given the lingering nature of the injury, he's just not at the top of my late-round target list. 

Ryan Weathers, MIA, P -- Early-March: 662.61; Past week: 547.63

With the Marlins rotation injuries, Weathers looks locked into the Opening Day rotation, and he has to be on late-round radars after looking as good as he has this spring. He's been sitting in the high-90s with his fastball and has 21 strikeouts to just four walks in 18 innings of work over five starts. It's just a small-sample size in spring, but Weathers is a former top-100 prospect and top-10 pick, and the Marlins have earned a reputation for their pitching development skills. I'm taking A.J. Puk ahead of Weathers – and Puk's ADP is up to 256.31 amidst his own terrific spring – but Weathers is a viable deep sleeper. 

Oneil Cruz, PIT, SS -- Early-March: 62.87; Past week: 52.22

To a certain extent, this is just spring hype – Cruz had five homers in a four-game stretch over the past two weeks, so of course he's getting inflated in drafts. That's not the best process, but I think it's defensible for two reasons: For one, Cruz has struck out just six times in 29 PA this spring, a (small) sign that he might have figured out his biggest issue; the other reason is just that maybe some drafters simply needed to see him healthy and looking like himself before they could make the plunge. I don't love pushing players up this high for spring performance, but in Cruz's case, I already had him ranked ahead of his prior ADP, so I can't complain too much. 

Wyatt Langford, TEX, OF -- Early-March: 109.38; Past week: 92.18

I don't know how much further Langford can move without actually being named to the Opening Day roster, and I can only imagine how much higher he's going to go off the board if he actually is named to the roster. The Rangers have been non-committal about Langford's roster status despite the fact that he's been arguably the best hitter in baseball this spring. There's literally nothing more he could do as a hitter, with five homers and 16 RBI in 15 games. It might just come down to whether the team wants to relegate him to DH full time, or whether they want to sideline one of their existing outfield options. Both Josh Jung and Corey Seager dealing with injuries that could have them somewhere south of 100% healthy by Opening Day could play a role in their calculations. It's almost impossible to imagine Langford not making the roster at this point, and he might have 30-30 upside even as a rookie. I haven't drafted him yet, and I'm regretting not getting the discount when it was available.