NBA teams no doubt have varying philosophies and priorities for how to rank and view players in any given class. Those philosophies and priorities are influenced by myriad factors including job security, team need and overall evaluation. But in my role as an analyst my modus operandi has always been to rank highest the players who present the most star potential in the long term accounting for positional size, athleticism, age, production and other factors.
That's why rising French star Zaccharie Risacher is No. 1 in my latest mock draft below. Risacher, who would be the second LNB Pro A product to go No. 1 in as many years (Victor Wembanyama from Mets 92 in 2023), combines rare traits with an ideal frame and upside to grow both on the ball as a playmaker and as a defender. He's still raw in terms of where he is developed physically, which comes as no surprise given he's just 18 years old, but there's a lot in his game that could be molded into something spectacular if things go right for him. He's tenacious as a defender and a timely cutter on offense. The flashes that make you go whoa don't come every sequence the way they did with Wembanyama, but they're there, and they are enough to buy in to for a team looking to swing for the fences.
The 2024 NBA Draft class is of course wide open at the top so reasonable minds may differ and preferences -- be it positionally or eval-based -- could put Serbian star Nikola Topic or French star Alex Sarr at No. 1. They go No. 2 and No. 3 respectively in my mock below to the Spurs and Pistons, respectively.
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The below mock is based primarily off of how I rank the class and does not take into account team need and fit given that there is still a huge chunk of the NBA season still left to play and a lot left unsettled for the time being as to how the actual draft order will look this summer. Order is based on odds via SportsLine.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
This draft is pretty wide-open as it relates to who is perceived as the No. 1 in the class but Risacher presents the positional size, athleticism and theoretical long-term upside that will be hard to pass on for the Wizards. Wings at 6-foot-9 who can handle and shoot with ease the way he can have superstar potential. His stock dipped a bit last year but he's back in the mix to be viewed as a consensus top-five prospect in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
I view Sarr as the better prospect but it'd be impossible to pass on the possibility of pairing superstar distributor prospect Nikola Topic with 7-5 rookie center Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. Topic is a guard who can play downhill and combine his vision with his instincts to present the most well-rounded playmaker of this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Sarr has a case to be considered the most high-ceiling defender in this class. He can be a shot blocking big and has shown the ability to switch onto the perimeter and be a terror on the defensive end guarding multiple positions.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Colorado
• Fr
• 6'8"
/ 190 lbs
The younger brother of rising OKC Thunder star Jalen Williams, Cody has caught the eye of NBA teams as a sneaky No. 1 pick contender given his size and skill as a playmaking wing. He's shooting nearly 50% from 3-point range on modest volume this season as a freshman and has flashed in a number of roles with the Buffaloes this season.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Kentucky
• Fr
• 6'3"
/ 187 lbs
On a Kentucky team flush with future NBA talent, Sheppard has consistently been the team's most impactful presence. He's shooting 51.4% from 3-point range on good volume and has ideal skill and feel to be a plug and play weapon at guard.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Kentucky
• Fr
• 6'3"
/ 176 lbs
The sheer potential of Dillingham is tantalizing because of his athletic pop and how quick he plays. He's a good shooter with explosive leaping ability and has the offensive makeup you want in a lead guard. His defense leaves a lot to be desired and there's room for growth as a true point. Feels like there's a wide range of career outcomes for him.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Baylor
• Fr
• 6'5"
/ 195 lbs
On the best 3-point shooting team in college basketball, Walter has started every game for Baylor as a freshman despite being the least consistent weapon on that front among starters. His big, built frame and shot-making versatility has me buying long-term on the hope that his shot-making consistency improves.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1 - Pick 8
A big wing with a sturdy shooting base and a consistent release, Salaun has quickly become one of my favorites in this class. His mechanics as a shooter are excellent and his positional size as a jumbo wing make his game immediately translatable to the NBA.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Buzelis hasn't quite lived up to expectations as a potential No. 1 pick in 2024 playing for G League Ignite this season but it's still hard to see him slipping out of the top 10. The tools he possesses that made him such a highly-touted prospect -- his 6-10 frame, ability to put the ball on the floor and shooting upside -- are all enough to validate a team willing to take him in this range.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 10
I've long been a fan of Holland's athleticism and potential and he's shown growth this season with G League Ignite with his handle. He has a lot of room to develop as an offensive weapon, though, particularly as a shooter and a facilitator. Lot to like about his potential but some concerns about him being a bit one-dimensional at this stage.
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From
Utah Jazz
Round 1 - Pick 11
USC
• Fr
• 6'5"
/ 210 lbs
USC's dream season with No. 1 recruit Collier has veered into nightmare territory, but Collier is not solely responsible. When healthy he has been highly productive and shown the type of lead guard, downhill driving and playmaking ability we expected from him. A team may get a bargain on a potential top-five talent if he falls this far.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Connecticut
• Fr
• 6'6"
/ 215 lbs
This is probably on the low end of where Castle could wind up going in this year's draft. He's been arguably the best and most impactful freshman in college basketball the last month and change for a No. 1 UConn team. He's a smooth operator who has great positional size and has at times taking over games with his scoring ability.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 13
Baylor
• Fr
• 7'0"
/ 235 lbs
Missi is an unsuspecting one-and-done candidate who could go in the lottery after what he's put on tape at Baylor. He has a huge reach and a big frame that he puts to good use as a lob finisher and shot blocker. Still raw but the refined version of him could be a starting center in the NBA.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Connecticut
• Soph
• 7'2"
/ 280 lbs
The difference in dominance between when Clingan is on the floor for No. 1 UConn vs. when he is not is jarring. He's the most impactful player for the clear best team in college basketball and his defensive energy and presence on the interior might be what helps the Huskies repeat as title winners. He's that good.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Duke
• Soph
• 7'0"
/ 248 lbs
I wanted to see Filipowski in his second season at Duke develop as a defender and become a more consistent and reliable shooter. Check and check. The 7-footer fits the profile of a modern NBA big with the ability to score it from deep and also operate as a facilitator with good vision and willingness as a passer.
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From
Indiana Pacers
Round 1 - Pick 16
Dayton
• Jr
• 6'10"
/ 235 lbs
Dayton is the best team in the A-10 and 21-5 on the season behind an All-American caliber season from Holmes. He's improved his shot from deep on more volume, scoring at a more efficient clip and made big strides as a junior for the Flyers. Rotation-caliber big with athleticism aplenty.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Tennessee
• Sr
• 6'6"
/ 213 lbs
Arguably no power conference player has done more for his stock this season than has Knecht, who transferred from Northern Colorado and is on pace to be an All-American at Tennessee. Bouncy athlete, high-feel scorer and good size -- exactly what I like in a scoring guard.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Arkansas
• Soph
• 6'10"
/ 220 lbs
Coming off a season that was cut short due to an ACL tear, Brazile has missed extended time this year due to knee soreness, so there may be some medicals worth digging into for NBA teams. But if he clears health wise I'd be buying low on him here in the late teens or early 20s. Above-the-rim athlete who can block shots and been a floor-spacer for a modern Arkansas offense.
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From
Dallas Mavericks
Round 1 - Pick 19
Sweden
• Fr
• 6'10"
/ 225 lbs
Klintman was a late first round guy for me last cycle before opting to withdraw from the draft and he's done nothing to suggest he doesn't still belong in the top 30. Big wing with shooting ability and defensive switchability who could be a starting player with some development down the line.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Kansas
• Sr
• 6'7"
/ 212 lbs
McCullar really struggled at the NBA Draft Combine last summer and ultimately came back to Kansas. Credit to him for that, because he has clearly made strides as a shooter playing with as much confidence as he has previously. He's been dinged up a bit throughout the season but when healthy has been the most important player for a Kansas team that has the goods to win it all.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Illinois
• Sr
• 6'6"
/ 225 lbs
Shannon has made strides in each of his five college seasons and is on pace for a career year as a scorer and shooter. NBA teams in general may see his age as a deterrent but he's a big wing who can hold his own as a defender and has the versatility on offense to be a potential rotation player at a premium position.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Kansas
• Fr
• 6'9"
/ 202 lbs
Among freshmen in college hoops, Furphy is the biggest riser the last month as he's taken a spot in the KU starting lineup and earned the vote of confidence. He has the handles of a polished guard and shooting ability to boot. His energy is infectious and his production profile is quickly becoming worthy of lottery consideration.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Jared McCain
PG
Duke
• Fr
• 6'3"
/ 197 lbs
One of college basketball's biggest personalities and most versatile shot-makers. Killer combo. McCain is a fun player all around who can be a microwave scorer and he plays with an edge that makes him fun to watch. Smidge concerned about his size, but definitely worth a pick in the 20s.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Wake Forest
• Jr
• 6'5"
/ 185 lbs
A former five-star who began his career at Gonzaga, Sallis has flourished this season at Wake averaging 18.4 points per game and shooting 40% from 3-point range. His progression as an outside scoring weapon was what previously kept him from earning first round buzz, and is now what might get him into the top 30.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Smith is a stretch big who has quietly had a strong season for G League Ignite shooting it from deep and showcasing his athleticism. He has a five-star pedigree and has flashed enough to get first round looks for a team in this range looking to develop a big for the future.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Creighton
• Jr
• 6'4"
/ 190 lbs
The departure of Ryan Nembhard has freed Alexander up at Creighton to take on an even larger role commanding the offense and he's fared well as a co-creator. I don't see him as a lead guard in the NBA but there's a role for him as a combo guard who can facilitate and create at the NBA level given his versatile skill set.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
D.J. Wagner
PG
Kentucky
• Fr
• 6'4"
/ 192 lbs
It's been an up and down season for Wagner after signing with UK as one of its prized five-star recruits. He's struggled to consistently make shots from deep but has been impressive at times creating off the bounce. Perhaps another year might do him well, but could still see him slotting into the late first if he goes.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Ryan Dunn
SF
Virginia
• Soph
• 6'8"
/ 216 lbs
One of the best defensive prospects in the sport. Dunn is averaging 2.3 blocks and 1.3 steals per game for a Virginia team that rates in the top 10 of efficiency metrics at KenPom. He has excellent timing and anticipation on defense and is one of the few on that side of the ball I'd consider a true playmaker.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Purdue
• Sr
• 7'4"
/ 300 lbs
Edey is on the fast track to win consecutive National Player of the Year honors at Purdue and his frame makes him one of the most impactful presences on the floor every single night. He may not be as dominant in the NBA as he's been in college and I think there are real, valid reasons to be skeptical of a four-year college big with his profile, but his consistent growth as a player and the promise he has shown as a shooter with touch put him in rare air as a possible outlier.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Dillon Jones
SG
Weber State
• Jr
• 6'6"
/ 235 lbs
Jones flashed last summer at the NBA Combine and was a projected first-rounder in my prospect ranks prior to returning to college. He has built upon a strong offseason with a monstrous junior season for Weber where he has improved every aspect of his game. Big guard who can pass, shoot and defend and seems to always be around the ball.
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