We have a changing of the guard in our initial 2024 Fantasy Football PPR tight end rankings. Well, sort of. Dave Richard and I have Sam LaPorta as the No. 1 tight end this season, but Heath Cummings still has Travis Kelce in the top spot.
Heath has LaPorta as the No. 3 tight end behind Kelce and Trey McBride, while Dave and I have Kelce at No. 2 and McBride at No. 3. As a result, our consensus rankings put Kelce first, LaPorta second and McBride third.
Confused yet?
We all have Mark Andrews at No. 4, so there is a consensus top four (things start to differ after that). Now, it's just a matter of which tight end you want first, second or third.
I'm going with LaPorta over Kelce based on youth. LaPorta, 23, is entering his second season in the NFL, and he was amazing as a rookie in 2023 with 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns on 120 targets. He averaged 13.5 PPR points per game. He also averaged 14.8 PPR points in three postseason outings, which included playing through a knee injury he suffered in Week 18.
Kelce actually tied T.J. Hockenson for No. 1 in PPR points per game in 2023 at 14.1, but he will be 35 in October. And we know he struggled last season compared to his usual standard of play. He failed to gain 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015, and his points per game was his lowest average since 2016.
That said, Kelce was a monster in the playoffs when he averaged a whopping 21.3 PPR points per game. He had 32 catches for 355 yards and three touchdowns on 37 targets in four games to help the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII.
But it's hard to expect Kelce to keep up that level of play based on what we saw last year. And Kansas City just added another weapon this offseason in Marquise Brown. I still like Kelce a lot -- but I like LaPorta more.
I'm also excited about McBride, who took off in his second season once Zach Ertz left the Cardinals. McBride averaged 14.9 PPR points per game in the final 10 games as the No. 1 tight end in Arizona. We'll see who the Cardinals add at wide receiver in the NFL Draft, but McBride could easily be the No. 1 target for Kyler Murray, who should improve in the second year after his torn ACL in 2022.
And let's not forget about Andrews, who suffered a broken ankle in Week 11 and didn't return until the AFC Championship Game loss against Kansas City. But prior to getting hurt, Andrews was once again having a standout campaign. He scored at least 14 PPR points in five of his first eight games, and he should continue to be a go-to option for Lamar Jackson this season.
All four of these tight ends have the potential to finish No. 1 at the position in 2024. And you should plan to draft all of them no later than Round 5. Most likely, we'll see LaPorta and Kelce selected in Round 3, with McBride and Andrews coming off the board soon after.
The next four tight ends are the same for our staff, just in a different order. I have it ranked Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts and George Kittle. Dave has it Kincaid, Kittle, Pitts and Engram. And Heath ranks them Engram, Kittle, Pitts and Kincaid.
I'm once again leaning toward youth with Kincaid in his second season. Buffalo's receiving corps will look different in 2024 with Gabe Davis gone, and Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins were the only significant additions.
Kincaid thrived as a rookie when Davis or Dawson Knox missed time, and I expect Kincaid to have a bigger role this season. He had 10 games with at least six targets in 2023, and he scored at least 12.7 PPR points in six of them. I think he can be even better this year.
Still, it's a close call for me with Kincaid and Engram, who just led all tight ends with 114 catches and 143 targets. He also added 963 yards and four touchdowns, and the Jaguars lost receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency. Even though Jacksonville added Davis, I expect Engram to again dominate targets for Trevor Lawrence.
As you can see, we're back in on Pitts now that Arthur Smith is gone as the head coach, and Kirk Cousins is the new starting quarterback for the Falcons. While Pitts has been a bust the past two seasons after a promising rookie campaign -- he averaged 10.4 PPR points per game in his first NFL season in 2021 with over 1,000 receiving yards, but he was at 7.2 PPR points per game in 2022 and then just 7.8 this past season -- he still has the potential to be a game changer in 2024. Hopefully, Cousins can turn Pitts into a star.
Kittle, for me, is the last tight end I want to target on Draft Day. He had a solid season in 2023 with 65 catches for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns on 90 targets, and he averaged 12.7 PPR points per game.
But his points per game was the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2017, and his points per game have declined almost every year of his career since his breakout campaign in 2018. If he can stay at this level then he still has top-five potential in all leagues, but are his stats going to decline again in 2024? I'm not overly concerned, but I won't draft him ahead of Kincaid, Engram or Pitts.
Those four tight ends of Kincaid, Engram, Pitts and Kittle will likely be drafted between Rounds 5 and 8. After that group, we're now down to the tight ends you're going to settle for instead of target. And that includes some prominent names in David Njoku and Hockenson. Those two join Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz and Cole Kmet as the next six tight ends in our consensus rankings, but Njoku and Hockenson stand out based on what they accomplished in 2023.
Njoku just had an unbelievable finish last season and scored at least 16.4 PPR points in each of his final four games. But he did most of his damage with Joe Flacco and not Deshaun Watson, and that's the concern for Njoku heading into 2024. Watson should return as the Browns starter after being lost for the season with a shoulder injury in Week 10, and Njoku scored 6.8 PPR points or less in three of five games with Watson. I like Njoku as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end entering 2024, but he might be a bust candidate given his production with Watson last year.
Hockenson is an easy fade for me this year. For starters, he suffered a major knee injury to his ACL and MCL in Week 16, and he might not be ready for Week 1. Then we have Cousins gone, and we don't know yet who the starting quarterback will be in Minnesota. Hockenson also will share targets again with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and I have little faith in Hockenson performing at a high level in 2024.
Ferguson, Goedert and Schultz should all be considered low-end starting options in 2024. All three are worth late-round picks.
Ferguson averaged 9.9 PPR points per game last season, and he should be able to replicate that this year as a top target for Dak Prescott. Schultz stayed in Houston as a free agent, and he averaged 9.7 PPR points per game with the Texans in 2023, including seven outings with at least 11 PPR points in 15 games. And Goedert was at 9.4 PPR points per game last season, which is the fifth season in a row he's averaged at least 9.2 PPR points.
We'll see how Kmet does in 2024 in a crowded receiving corps for the Bears, who added Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift this offseason. But I still like Kmet as a No. 2 tight end with upside.
I put him in the same category as Pat Freiermuth, Luke Musgrave and Michael Mayer, and hopefully one of these guys (or all of them) can become a breakout candidate in 2024. We'll also see where rookie Brock Bowers ends up, and he could be a difference maker at tight end this season.
The position is changing with a youth movement led by LaPorta, McBride and Kincaid. But Kelce could still be the king, and it should be fun to draft tight ends in 2024.
