It's Fantasy semifinals time in most leagues, and weather worries will make things tougher for some Fantasy managers. Plus injuries to Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson, Mike White, Ryan Tannehill and Kenny Pickett could make things even trickier.
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Jamey Eisenberg has his Start and Sit calls for QB here. His Waiver Wire column also can direct you to the best options who may be available in your leagues. And don't forget to check out Heath Cummings' quarterback preview for more help with matchup notes, Week 16 numbers to know and more.
START 'EM & SIT 'EM
Quarterbacks
QBs to Start
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Cousins is on fire right now with at least 27 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, and he should stay hot this week. The Giants have allowed three of their past four opposing quarterbacks to throw for at least two touchdowns, with two of those guys (Taylor Heinicke in Week 13 and Jalen Hurts in Week 14) scoring at least 21 Fantasy points. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with an implied total of 48 points, according to Caesars Sportsbook and Casino, and Cousins should lead the way for the Vikings.
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Tagovailoa played better than I expected in Week 15 at Buffalo with 21 Fantasy points, which ended his three-game streak of scoring 17 points or less. I'm glad he's back home after three consecutive road games at San Francisco, the Chargers and Buffalo, and the warm weather in South Florida should be welcoming. The Packers have held Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield to under 20 Fantasy points the past two weeks, but prior to that they allowed at least 23 points to Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill and Jalen Hurts. I expect Tagovailoa to be in that range, and he's a must-start quarterback once again in all leagues.
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I wish Smith had Tyler Lockett (finger) for this game, but he's out. Still, Smith should get enough from DK Metcalf and the rest of his supporting cast of Marquise Goodwin, Noah Fant and Kenneth Walker III to be successful in this matchup. The Chiefs are third in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and 11 quarterbacks this season have scored at least 21 Fantasy points against Kansas City, including Davis Mills last week. Smith struggled in Week 15 against San Francisco with just 16 Fantasy points, but he scored at least 22 points in each of the six games prior to facing the 49ers. He should rebound this week in a possible shootout on the road.
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Brady hasn't looked good for the past several weeks, but he has managed to score at least 20 Fantasy points in four of his past five games. If he can limit the turnovers -- he has five interceptions and two fumbles in the past three weeks -- then he might be even better in Week 16. This is a great matchup against the Cardinals, who allow an average of 22.1 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Five of the past eight quarterbacks against Arizona have scored at least 24 Fantasy points, and the ones who failed to do that were Brett Rypien, Mac Jones and John Wolford. This could be one of Brady's best games of the season.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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We'll find out if Minshew is starting for the injured Jalen Hurts (shoulder) this week, and if he does then I like Minshew as a low-end starter in all leagues. He started two games for the Eagles in 2021 (without A.J. Brown on the roster) and scored 22 Fantasy points at the Jets in Week 13 and 18 points against the Cowboys in Week 18. The matchup at Dallas is tough, but Trevor Lawrence just lit up that defense for 34 Fantasy points in Week 15. I don't expect Minshew to replicate that, but he could be the fifth quarterback this season to top 20 points against Dallas.
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Jones struggled in Week 15 at Washington with only nine Fantasy points, but prior to that he scored at least 19 points in four of his previous five games. I like his matchup in Week 16 against the Vikings, who have allowed four of their past six opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21 Fantasy points. He's worth using as a low-end starter in all leagues.
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Purdy is worth using as a low-end starter in all leagues. He's been solid stepping in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo (foot), scoring at least 20 Fantasy points in both starts. Even without Deebo Samuel (knee/ankle) in Week 15 at Seattle, Purdy was 17-of-26 passing for 217 yards and two touchdowns. You have to worry a little about the lack of attempts (47 in both starts), and the 49ers run game can potentially dominate this matchup with Washington in Week 16. But Purdy is taking advantage of Kyle Shanahan's system and leaning on his playmakers, specifically Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. The Commanders haven't allowed a quarterback to score more than 19 Fantasy points since Week 10, but I still trust Purdy to be successful once again.
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QBs to Sit
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Watson continues to look better after three starts, but he's still scored 18 Fantasy points or less in each outing. He could be playing in bad weather this week against the Saints, with the forecast calling for heavy wind and snow. This feels like a game where the Browns will lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, which is what happened in Week 15 against Baltimore, and Watson only passed for 161 yards and one touchdown. The Saints also have allowed just one quarterback to score more than 19 Fantasy points since Week 6, which was Brady when he had a miraculous comeback in Week 13.
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Carr has a terrible history of playing in cold-weather games, and the forecast in Pittsburgh on Saturday night could be under 15 degrees. That's not good. It's also a tough matchup since the Steelers have held five of their past six opposing quarterbacks to 15 Fantasy points or less, which coincides when T.J. Watt returned from his pectoral injury in Week 10. Carr has scored at least 20 Fantasy points in six of his past seven games, so he's doing a good job heading into this matchup, but I expect him to struggle in this cold-weather contest.
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Goff was on his way to another disappointing road game in Week 15 at the Jets before he connected with tight end Brock Wright late in the fourth quarter for a 51-yard touchdown. Without that play, Goff would have had 201 passing yards and no touchdowns, and he continues to struggle away from Detroit. He only had 16 Fantasy points against the Jets and has now scored 16 points or less in all six road outings. The Panthers have allowed just one quarterback to score more than 15 Fantasy points against them in their past four outings, and Goff will be tough to trust on the road again.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Rodgers comes into Week 16 at Miami having scored 15 Fantasy points or less in three games in a row. He has three interceptions over that span and has been held to under 200 passing yards twice. And he's been held to 19 Fantasy points or less in five consecutive road games. This game has a projected total of 49.5 points, according to Caesars Sportsbook and Casino, and we'll see if Rodgers can keep up with the Dolphins. And Miami has allowed Justin Herbert and Josh Allen to combine for 671 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in the past two games. But it's hard to trust Rodgers right now, especially with Green Bay's ground attack leading the way for the Packers, and I would only start Rodgers in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
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