So you've got Marlon Mack and Matt Breida on your bench and you're itching to get them back in your lineup. The good news is, they're both trending towards playing in Week 14. The bad news is you may not want to start them anyway.
Breida returns to a situation that may just be the ugliest in football for our purposes. The 49ers have had at least one good Fantasy running back for most of the season. The problem for Fantasy owners is that it's been a different back nearly every week. I can't trust Breida, Tevin Coleman or Raheem Mostert in New Orleans. If I had to choose one it would be Mostert coming off his huge game.
Mack's role is more clear but his situation may be just as bad. The Buccaneers have given up almost nothing on the ground this season. No running back has topped 100 yards rushing against them this season and only three have reached the end zone on the ground.
The way to get to this Bucs defense is through the air, and Mack's usage in the passing game was questionable when he had two good hands. He's a fine flex in non-PPR, but I'm trying to avoid him in PPR.
Week 14 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here's what it means:
Darwin Thompson could see extended work.
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Patrick Laird should be the lead back.
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Numbers to know
- 40% - Broken tackle rate for Kareem Hunt. With their upcoming schedule, you should consider both Hunt and Nick Chubb as good starts.
- 22 - Touches for Miles Sanders in Week 13. He's been unleashed. Let's just hope Jordan Howard doesn't come back and ruin it.
- 48.9 - PPR Fantasy points for Jamaal Williams since Davante Adams came back. That's 6.8 more than Aaron Jones.
- 14 - Damien Williams is still the only Chiefs running back to see more than 14 touches in a game this season.
- 11 - Targets for James White in Week 13. He had 13 in his three games prior.
- 51 - Snaps for Kenyan Drake last week. David Johnson saw just 15. This is not a committee.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Our Evan Washburn indicated Snell's success has given the Steelers the luxury of waiting until Conner is 100% to return. If Conner is out, Snell is the safest back in non-PPR and a fine flex in PPR. The game script should be perfect against a scuffling Cardinals team
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Laird could be a very good contrarian DFS play in a game that I expect is a little bit high scoring. He could also be a top 24 running back in PPR as he was last week.
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The 49ers backfield will likely be a three-headed monster against a difficult matchup.
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If Damien Williams is out, I could be too low on Thompson. He'll likely get double-digit touches in that scenario, but he's struggled with pass protection and it's hard to trust a part-time back against the Patriots.
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Gaskin will share the load with Laird in Ballage's absence. There's certainly a chance Gaskin is the better runner and their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way.
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Edwards is looking at 15-20 touches per game with goal-line opportunities if Ingram goes down.
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Don't wait for an injury to try to stash Pollard.
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DFS Plays
It's a difficult matchup and Kamara has been a Fantasy disappointment, but I love this value. I expect 20 touches for Kamara, and you know the touchdowns are coming eventually. If he's under-owned, all the better.
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Freeman and the Falcons have been so bad running the ball, I'm not sure everyone will buy into the matchup against the Panthers. Freeman's involvement in the passing game makes him an even better play on DraftKings.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 23.79 | 30.25 |
6 | 2 | Alvin Kamara | 16.77 | 24.64 |
5 | 3 | Leonard Fournette | 17.21 | 23.14 |
4 | 4 | Dalvin Cook | 17.64 | 21.97 |
2 | 5 | Derrick Henry | 19.41 | 21.07 |
3 | 6 | Nick Chubb | 18.02 | 19.90 |
7 | 7 | Miles Sanders | 16.52 | 19.51 |
8 | 8 | Ezekiel Elliott | 15.91 | 18.49 |
13 | 9 | Saquon Barkley | 13.21 | 17.62 |
16 | 10 | Devonta Freeman | 13.02 | 17.27 |
21 | 11 | Austin Ekeler | 12.21 | 16.99 |
9 | 12 | Josh Jacobs | 15.64 | 16.52 |
11 | 13 | Aaron Jones | 13.65 | 16.12 |
17 | 14 | Le'Veon Bell | 12.59 | 16.05 |
10 | 15 | Todd Gurley | 13.67 | 16.05 |
12 | 16 | Phillip Lindsay | 13.31 | 15.95 |
22 | 17 | Kenyan Drake | 11.67 | 15.87 |
23 | 18 | Jamaal Williams | 11.49 | 15.86 |
19 | 19 | Joe Mixon | 12.41 | 15.23 |
15 | 20 | Melvin Gordon | 13.05 | 15.18 |
20 | 21 | Chris Carson | 12.24 | 15.13 |
26 | 22 | James White | 10.40 | 14.96 |
14 | 23 | Mark Ingram | 13.12 | 14.82 |
28 | 24 | Kareem Hunt | 10.19 | 14.61 |
39 | 30 | Patrick Laird | 8.80 | 12.32 |
29 | 25 | LeSean McCoy | 10.16 | 13.73 |
24 | 26 | Devin Singletary | 11.49 | 13.70 |
18 | 27 | Benny Snell | 12.51 | 13.34 |
27 | 28 | Duke Johnson | 10.28 | 13.05 |
25 | 29 | David Montgomery | 10.54 | 12.56 |
37 | 31 | Ronald Jones | 8.94 | 11.28 |
33 | 32 | Raheem Mostert | 9.44 | 10.96 |
34 | 33 | Alexander Mattison | 9.28 | 10.76 |
38 | 34 | Derrius Guice | 8.92 | 10.74 |
46 | 35 | Tarik Cohen | 6.12 | 10.73 |
36 | 36 | Rashaad Penny | 9.03 | 10.60 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 14 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
