When Lamar Jackson stepped in as the full-time Ravens starter in 2019, he set the NFL on fire en route to an all-time season and just the second unanimous MVP award in NFL history. Four years later, Jackson punched his ticket to a second MVP award, the No. 1 seed in the AFC and probably his ticket to Canton and the Pro Football Hall of Fame with a superb five-touchdown Week 17 effort in Baltimore's 56-19 rout of the Miami Dolphins.
Jackson has done it all in Year 1 under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and with a host of new weapons, all while dealing with injuries to several key players on offense.
That's a lot to take in, so let's break it down piece by piece.
The 2023 MVP award
Brock Purdy was the consensus favorite to win the Most Valuable Player award this time last week. Yada yada yada, the Ravens kicked the 49ers right in the teeth, Purdy tossed four picks and suddenly the San Francisco quarterback was 19-1 with no chance to recover from his sluggish prime-time performance. Jackson was the favorite and needed to really just show up and beat the Dolphins.
Somewhat ironic: Jackson kickstarted the 2019 campaign with a 59-10 beatdown of the Dolphins, unleashing his full skill set as a multi-faceted athlete in Greg Roman's offense and destroying defenses the entire year. Fast forward to the last day of 2023 and Lamar did the same thing to the Dolphins. (Notable -- the Fins waved the literal white flag and tossed backup Mike White under center late in this game, and Tyler Huntley threw a touchdown as well.)
Jackson used his legs some against Miami, running six times for 35 yards and picking up some key first downs. But much like the full season, he mostly lived in the pocket, slicing and dicing the Dolphins defense with throws to an assortment of young weapons. Jackson would finish the game 18 of 21 for 321 yards and five passing touchdowns, good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating and a cherry on top of an MVP sundae.
"I'm locked in ... I'm locked in," Jackson said slyly after the game when asked how locked in he was by "NFL on CBS'" Evan Washburn.
"At home, I'm at home," Jackson said. "I appreciate that. That's all."
Several things make Jackson's MVP case -- now a slam dunk and something we've told you to bet on the Pick Six Podcast for the last few months -- this year fascinating.
First, Jackson won't suffer from voter fatigue even though he won in 2019. If anything, Jackson has a better chance of winning because of voter familiarity. The same group of MVP voters will be comfortable casting their vote for someone who also deserved the award in 2019. And no one else is within striking distance at this point, only Josh Allen could maaaaaybe fashion a case, and he isn't in the same production stratosphere as Jackson.
Second, the fact Jackson did this from the pocket all season -- while still producing via the ground -- really jams it home for all the people who said he was a glorified running back, even after winning his first MVP. He's been polarizing his entire career, but this season should silence all of the ridiculous doubters who wouldn't believe in his skill set for some silly reason.
And finally -- and perhaps most importantly -- is the reminder that this offseason not one NFL team attempted to sign Lamar Jackson to an offer sheet when the Ravens gave him a non-exclusive franchise tag. Back in March, I wrote how curious it was for these teams to pass on Jackson and how it felt like obvious collusion designed to snuff out guaranteed contracts like the one Deshaun Watson got. I stand by that. There are counterpoints suggesting the Ravens would have matched the offer sheet. That's fine, but no one even made an offer. And most of the league sprinted to publicly leak their lack of interest in Jackson.
Reminder that half the league sprinted to tell the world they didn't want Lamar Jackson as soon as the Ravens put the non-exclusive franchise tag on him. pic.twitter.com/jdMvXqW1WD
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 31, 2023
One other team with a quick quote on not wanting to pursue Jackson was the Dolphins, who ended up being the final inflection point for his path to the 2023 MVP.
The AFC's No. 1 seed
The path to the Super Bowl on the AFC side of things goes through Baltimore now, which should petrify opponents. The Ravens secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over Miami on Sunday, setting the stage for a dynamic championship game.
Or a blowout?
The Ravens have been extremely dominant against quality opponents at home this year. Baltimore beat the Texans, Seahawks, Bengals, Lions and Dolphins -- all quality/playoff-caliber opponents -- by double digits. There were slip-ups, including weird losses to the Colts and Browns at home, but a strong 5-2 showing at home is going to portend a problem for anyone traveling to Charm City for a playoff berth.
The Ravens also pick up the bye, which has been a massive boon for NFL teams over the last decade. I'm partial to the idea of the Bills making a deep run, but we should absolutely not discount the Ravens, one of the best-coached teams in the NFL and the most dominant team in the NFL all season, using the bye to really prep and blitz their way to the Super Bowl.
Baltimore will likely sit its starters in Week 18, but pay close attention to the Bills-Dolphins game. If Buffalo wins, the Bills would take the AFC East crown, and Miami would be a wild card. That would mean another quick trip to Baltimore if Miami won its first-round game, assuming the No. 7 seed also didn't win its game.
If chalk largely holds it could be Cleveland and a Flacco revenge-game special coming to Baltimore for an incredible divisional-round matchup.
Hall of Fame
It's WAY too early to talk Hall of Fame for Lamar Jackson ... or is it? Lamar is poised to become the 11th player in NFL history to win multiple NFL MVP awards. His stats through his short career have been phenomenal, with Lamar shattering records for rushing quarterback production and also throwing the ball around in more than impressive fashion.
Here's a list of those quarterbacks:
| Player | MVP awards | Hall of Fame Status |
|---|---|---|
5 | Inducted in 2021 | |
4 | Active in NFL, first-ballot lock | |
Jim Brown | 3 | Inducted in 1971 |
Johnny Unitas | 3 | Inducted in 1979 |
Brett Favre | 3 | Inducted in 2016 |
3 | Eligible in 2028, first-ballot lock | |
Joe Montana | 2 | Inducted in 2000 |
Steve Young | 2 | Inducted in 2005 |
Kurt Warner | 2 | Inducted in 2017 |
2 | Active in NFL, likely first-ballot lock* |
The only player on the above list who wasn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer was Kurt Warner, and he got in his second time around. Warner likely would have been a first-ballot guy, too, but the HOF voting is weird and Favre "needed" to be the lone quarterback in his class or something silly like that.
Now, you can make the case Jackson needs to play much longer in order to make it into Canton. I wouldn't disagree at all. But you can make the exact same case -- see the asterisk above -- for Patrick Mahomes. If Mahomes walked away from the game right now he probably would be a HOF-caliber player with multiple Super Bowls attached to his young career.
But the same can be said for Jackson, even without a Super Bowl victory to his name. If he plays another five years at his current level, he'd almost certainly be a Hall-worthy player based on his current resume.
And if the Ravens tack on a Super Bowl this year, you can go ahead and lock in Lamar for Canton as well.
