NFL season win totals dropped way back in March (what a time to be alive!) and I went through every single division then, looking at my favorite immediate bets. There's a lot more clarity now after offseason roster moves are largely done, contracts are mostly signed and we know what we're getting ... at least until we don't after the season starts.
There's a pick for every single team, plus a look at our SportsLine projection model simulations, but if I actually believe a team is worth betting on I'll include a note.
You can check out AFC East and AFC West here. AFC North and AFC South are below.
Before we get to the over/under picks ... can we talk about Colts fans? What a weird fanbase! They've been (mostly) intensely loyal to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck which is like being very excited about having to drive your Porsche and Ferrari. Anthony Richardson could be AWESOME. I hope he unlocks every physical skill set he has so we can enjoy watching it unfold. But goodness gracious can you guys please, please, please stop leaping off the top rope to defend Jim Irsay?
He owns a football team. He owns lots of guitars. He probably isn't well liked if the Colts don't stumble into Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck back-to-back because the Colts aren't winning as much as they did over the last 20+ years. There have been four free spaces in NFL Draft Bingo over the last 40 years, the Colts got two of them and won a single Super Bowl.
By all means keep praising the dude who hired Jeff Saturday and routinely undermines his widely respected GM. It's probably going to keep accidentally working out well! To the win totals!
(All lines courtesy Caesars Sportsbook)
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 11.5 (+110) / Under (-140)
SportsLine Projection Model: 10.6
First things first: you can get a 10.5 win total at (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook and that's just a better bet than 11.5. Call me square, tell me I'm a dummy for taking the juice ... and if the Bengals win 11 games do not talk to me. I'd go the 11.5 in a heartbeat if I knew Joe Burrow wasn't dealing with a calf injury. Cincy's offense has started slow the last few years because of Burrow injuries and I'm a little nervous they do the same this year and lean on Joe Mixon and get a game stolen from them. Defensively they're good. Orlando Brown is a massive plus. The wideouts are ridiculous and Burrow is a savant who is only getting smarter. No chance I'm fading the Bengals this season.
Brinson's pick: Bengals over 10.5 wins (DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens
Over 9.5 (-170) / Under (+145)
SportsLine Projection Model: 9.6 wins
There's no way you can bet on the Ravens over at this price, even with 17 games. If Lamar Jackson gets hurt or the offense stumbles at all -- and I don't think it will but there's a lot of new skill-position guys and a new OC -- it makes getting to 10-7 much tougher. The Ravens are missing pass rushers and they're missing depth in the defensive backfield. I'd bet over 10.5 before I bet over 9.5 here, even though I love Baltimore this year as a whole with the Todd Monken addition and what he could bring to this offense. Greg Roman changed things but it got stale -- the last time Baltimore upended things was 2019 and it worked out quite nicely.
Brinson's pick: Ravens over 9.5 wins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 9.0 (-115) / Under (-105)
SportsLine Projection Model: 7.6 wins
You want to talk about an over smash? The Steelers are ripe for a ton of reasons. Toss the "no losing record" thing out the window -- Mike Tomlin is a really good head coach who motivates his players. There's a slew of veterans on defense and a healthy T.J. Watt equals problems for other offenses. Kenny Pickett has flashed this preseason in a very Steelers gritty/winner kind of way. The physical tools aren't there like the elite guys but Pickett wins at every level. George Pickens is a freaking problem man. The offensive line is retooled. The Steelers are being slept on big time, especially with a 9-8 push possibility (severely underrated when talking win totals because of how rare it is).
Brinson pick: Steelers over 9.0 wins
Cleveland Browns
Over 9.5 (+110) / Under 9.5 (-130)
SportsLine Projection Model: 7.6 wins
Suggesting the Browns won't be GREAT will get you yelled at, at least until the unnamed radio host (hint: it's Ken Carmen of 92.3 the Fan in Cleveland) kowtows and admits 10 wins is a tough ask. This is a deep roster and while defenses under Jim Schwartz haven't necessarily thrived in his first year, he blitzes like a maniac and is very aggressive. The Browns have the personnel for that. The offensive line looks strong and the weapons are -- as the kids say -- "mad dece"? The issue is Deshaun Watson. Is he gonna be great? IF so the Browns should be a borderline favorite here. Is he way less than mad dece? Then the Browns are a long shot at best for the AFC North. Watch this one and how Deshaun plays early because there could be early-season betting opps available.
(I can neither confirm nor deny whether Ken confirmed or denied such speculation but it's fun to imagine him agitated by tweets about this.)
Brinson's pick: Browns under 9.5 wins
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 10.0 (+122) / Under 10.0 (-140)
SportsLine Projection Model: 9.6 wins
I understand the juice/line move here -- 9.5 is too low. But I want 10 wins with plus money knowing a push is actually a 10-cent win and 11 wins -- very doable for this team -- is a cruise-control victory. Trevor Lawrence is going nuclear this season, betting on him to throw for 5,000 yards is a good look, just like the Jags being the No. 1 AFC seed is a strong bet. They have by far the weakest division and a much easier schedule than the other competition. Toss your parlay jokes int he trash with your bad bet tickets, because Calvin Ridley is a stud who will only make Lawrence much, much better, while shifting Christian Kirk to the WR2 role. The Jags are loaded on offense suddenly. The defensive might be great but it's got enough pass rush to contain the divisional quarterbacks.
Brinson's pick: Jaguars over 10.0 wins
Tennessee Titans
Over 7.5 (-120) / Under (+100)
SportsLine Projection Model: 7.6 wins
Very, very tricky team to deal with. The numbers hate the Titans and so does anyone with a couple eyeballs and access to a depth chart. On the other hand ... Mike Vrabel? He's legitimately that good a coach where he will swing 1-2 games per year (longer story but hey billionaires there's no cap for coaches). Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are both well below everyone's radar, which is where this group likes it.
Brinson's pick: Titans under 7.5 wins
Indianapolis Colts
Over 6.5 (-115) / Under (-105)
SportsLine Projection Model: 6.2 wins
There will be Colts fans who -- while not doing something as pathetic as searching the internet to find out how tall I am (spoiler: not very) -- will claim I'm fading Indy out of spite. Normally I wouldn't blame them, as I'm a spiteful person. But I'm not in this case! Instead I'm fading the Colts because of Jim Irsay! I'm intrigued by the plenty of things when it comes to the Colts. (I also freaking love the city of Indianapolis, even if really hot shrimp sauce is a bizarre signature food to corner.) Anthony Richardson is a FREAK, man. If he harnesses his arm and improves his accuracy on short/intermediate throws, the ceiling is limitless. Shane Steichen got the absolute most out of Jalen Hurts while working with Nick Sirriani in Philadelphia. How can you not find his offensive mind coupled with Richardson appealing? I'm just not sure it will work well out of the box -- even if we get Cam Newton's rookie year in Carolina as a best case, we're talking about a team that won six games, with a much better defense than the one in Indy. Shaq Leonard coming back healthy would be a gamechanger for sure, but Gus Bradley's holdover scheme has me concerned. The offensive line needs to revert back to its previous form as well, and getting Jonathan Taylor in camp and happy would go a long way toward helping everyone.
Brinson's pick: Colts under 6.5 wins
Houston Texans
Over 6.5 (+125) / Under 6.5 (-150)
SportsLine Projection Model: 7.8 wins
The Texans bandwagon is lonely -- if you're interested in jumping on I've got extra tickets! I am not a huge C.J. Stroud guy so this is a little conflicting for me, because I really want to like Houston this year. DeMeco Ryans is in his first stop as a head coach, making it impossible to know for sure how he'll do. But by all accounts he's legitimately changing the culture there. Count me in on DeMeco the head coach! Tytus Howard getting hurt is a big concern for Stroud's protection, but I like the veteran additions this team made in terms of helping the young QB out, snagging Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown (their success would be worth it just to see Jerry Jones triggered), plus Devin Singletary to complement Dameon Pierce. Defensively they did something similar, scooping up veteran guys like Sheldon Richardson and Jimmie Ward (obviously familiar with Ryans). I might not agree with what they traded away (a future first) to move back up in this year's draft but Will Anderson will certainly help the defense right away. The two games between the Colts/Texans probably determines which one of these teams goes over and which one goes under. I'll happily grab the hefty plus money here.
Brinson's pick: Texans over 6.5 wins
