2023 MLB Season Preview: Bold Predictions, Award Picks, and more from the Fantasy Baseball Today team

We're so close. The start of the 2023 MLB season is as of publication, a little more than 24 hours away. I finished my last Fantasy Baseball draft Tuesday night -- technically Wednesday morning -- and now all that's left to do is wait. Some of you might be finishing up your drafts Wednesday night, in which case our Draft Prep guide has everything you need to build your best team ahead of opening day.

If you've already drafted, well, kick back, relax. Make sure you get your Week 1 lineups set, obviously, with Scott White's sleeper pitchers and sleeper hitters for either scoring variation of Week 1, but otherwise, your work is done. It's time to fantasize about championships, after a season in which all of your biggest risks work out.

They won't all work out, of course. Predicting this game is incredibly hard to do. But at least for the next day or so, we can dream. And that's what this column is all about. I asked the Fantasy Baseball Today crew to hit me with their predictions for the upcoming season, including four bold predictions from five different analysts -- 19 in total, because there is some overlap, as you'll see.

Now, before you go running off to Twitter to tell everyone how ridiculous our predictions are, just keep this in mind: Bold predictions are supposed to be at least a little bit ridiculous. That's not to say we don't think these things can happen ... we do, and that's why we're picking them! We're just being intentionally over the top. Because, what are the last hours before first pitch for if not for being a little over the top?

Here are our bold predictions for the 2023 season, along with division and World Series picks and award predictions, from myself, Scott White, Frank Stampfl, Chris Welsh, and R.J. White.

Chris Towers' Season Predictions

Three Fantasy Bold Predictions

Oneil Cruz finishes as the No. 1 SS in Fantasy

If MLB did a Punt, Pass, and Kick-type competition, Cruz might take down the whole dang league. He had the hardest hit ball in the history of the Statcast era with a 122.4 mph batted ball last season, he had the highest-velocity throw tracked by an infielder at 93.9 mph, and he had the 12th-highest average sprint speed at 29.9 feet per second. Now, turning all of that into a complete, fully actualized baseball player rather than a collection of intriguing talents is the hard part, of course, but Cruz might actually be a once-in-a-generation type of talent, and that skill set makes betting on outlier results a pretty smart proposition. Maybe he never gets there. Or, maybe it all comes together quickly and he emerges as a legitimate first-round caliber player. It's well within the realm of possible outcomes.

One of Jordan Walker or Anthony Volpe will be sent back to the minors

Look, don't yell at me, please. I'm just playing the odds. OK, that might be overstating, because the rate of top-10 prospects being sent back to the minors during their first season is probably lower than 50% – of last year's top-10 guys per BaseballProspectus.com's rankings, seven made the majors and only Spencer Torkelson was sent back down. However, if you look at the previous year's top 10, Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson, Jarred Kelenic, and C.J. Abrams have all struggled to establish themselves as regular major-leaguers for various reasons. Making it through the minors is tough, but making the leap to the majors is a whole different story, and Volpe and Walker are doing it at very young ages. Both could be stars, but there's a lot of risk here too, and it's worth pointing that out. Even if it makes me a wet blanket.

Dylan Cease has an ERA over 4.00

I can certainly see the case for Cease, who figures to be a sure bet for a ton of strikeouts and has made every scheduled start for five years in a row, a pretty sterling track record of health. But I'm not sure I buy the massive improvement in skills he showed last season. Cease's walk rate and strikeout rate both actually got a bit worse from 2021 to 2022, but he took a big step forward thanks to dramatic improvements in quality of contact – he went from a pretty bad .383 expected wOBA on contact to a sterling .313 mark, one of the best of any starter last season. Pitchers do have control over the quality of contact they allow, but it's a very noisy stat, prone to a lot of fluctuation from one year to the next, so it's hard to know how much of that improvement was truly skills-based. If it's real, Cease is probably a top-12 pitcher, but there's enough uncertainty there to scare me off of him entirely this season.

I'll also note that Cease is one of those pitchers I think less highly of every time I watch him pitch – it feels like he is constantly on the verge of a meltdown. That might just be an aesthetic criticism and my own bias, but it's there, and it colors how I view him for sure.

One MLB Bold Prediction

Shohei Ohtani wins MVP and Cy Young

There are those who will ask, "Well, should Ohtani win MVP every year that he is healthy?" And … yeah, maybe! It took a historic season from Aaron Judge to (rightly) beat him out last season, but Ohtani should be viewed as the favorite for MVP every season he is healthy and doing what he's capable of on both sides. Now, because he pitches every sixth day instead of every fifth day, Ohtani is almost always going to be at a disadvantage in the Cy Young race, so he probably needs something to go wrong for one of the other contenders to win. Gerrit Cole's homer issues may keep his ERA inflated enough to overcome the volume edge he's likely to have, and Alek Manoah and Dylan Cease's ERAs both seem more likely to inflate from last year's marks than Ohtani's. Ohtani might just be the best pitcher in the AL on a per-inning basis already, and if he puts up another low-2.00s ERA mark for a playoff-bound Angels team, voters may not be able to avoid the appeal of granting a historic award to this historic player.

Standings predictions

American League

AL East Winner: Yankees – Even with the rotation injuries, this team feels like a clear tier ahead of the competition.
AL Central Winner: Guardians – I think this is one division that might come down to whoever gets to 90 wins first.
AL West Winner: Astros – Even with some losses, they're the clear class of the division.
Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Rays, Angels – The Angels pick might be wishing to a certain extent, but I actually really believe in that pitching staff.

National League

NL East Winner: Mets – They lost the division with 101 wins and then went out and added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga. And they have some pretty awesome prospects waiting in the upper minors. I think they lead the majors in wins.
NL Central Winner: Cardinals – It's boring, but the NL Central is pretty boring. Like their AL counterparts, I think the NL Central teams are fighting for one playoff spot.
NL West Winner: Padres – If Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado were the top four in NL War this season, I wouldn't be totally shocked.
Wild Cards: Dodgers, Braves, Phillies – I wouldn't be shocked if you needed 95 wins to be a wild-card team in the NL this season. It might be that competitive.

World Series

Padres over Astros – I would love to see the Padres rewarded for being so aggressive at a time when so many teams hug their prospects and worry about their 2029 payroll. I also just think the Padres might be the best team in baseball, though their rotation depth is a little lacking.

Award Picks

American League

AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson – Kind of the chalk pick, but Henderson got to the majors last season and more than held his own, putting up a .788 OPS with underlying numbers that suggest it was no fluke.
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani – Injuries or Judge being possessed by the spirits of Ruth and Gehrig are the only things standing in Ohtani's way, apparently.
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole – Cole has actually never won a Cy Young before, and if he's just a low-3.00s ERA pitcher moving forward, he may never get there. But if he gets below 3.00, he'll have a chance, given how many innings he's likely to rack up relative to his chief competition.

National League

NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll – The chalk pick again, though there are no style points here. Caroll played at a five-win pace in his cup of coffee last year, more or less.
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña – I thought about going away from Acuña since I'm not picking the Braves to win the division. But I think Acuña is going to bounce back from a down year in a big way, and if he gets back to his 2020-21 level (he hit .271/.399/.591 across those seasons), he's probably going to be the best player in the NL. He's my No. 1 player in Fantasy, too.
NL Cy Young: Sandy Alcantara – Few pitchers ever win back-to-back Cy Youngs, and Alcantara doesn't get the gaudy strikeout numbers of the best pitchers in baseball. However he led the NL in Baseball-Reference.com's version of WAR among all players last season, and was a whopping 2.0 WAR ahead of Aaron Nola, the No. 2 pitcher. He's just such an outlier in terms of innings that if he's close to the league leaders in ERA, he'll probably be the right choice.

Frank Stampfl's Season Predictions

Host of Fantasy Baseball Today

Three Fantasy Bold Predictions

David Peterson is the third most valuable starting pitcher in the Mets rotation. That would require him to pass both Carlos Carrasco and Kodai Senga, who's going well behind in ADP. Last year Peterson improved his slider usage and it's a great pitch, posting a 47.9% whiff rate and a .175 batting average against. He followed that up by allowing one hit in 12 innings this spring.
Darick Hall outperforms what Rhys Hoskins did with the Phillies last season. Slugging will not be an issue for Hall, who posted a 17.4% barrel rate last season. Among hitters with at least 50 batted balls, Hall's barrel rate ranked seventh, ahead of Shohei Ohtani, Austin Riley and Oneil Cruz. The only downside will be playing time as Hall projects to sit against left-handed pitching.
The Marlins produce three top-30 starting pitchers for Fantasy. We know Sandy Alcantara is a near-lock as long as he's healthy. I wrote up Jesus Lzuardo in Breakouts 1.0, so I think there's a very real chance for him. That leaves one of Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera, and both have a ton of upside. We saw what Rogers did back in 2021 before taking a huge step back last year. Cabrera has some of the best stuff in baseball. Now he just needs to throw strikes. I think one of those two gets it done.

One MLB Bold Prediction

Three players exceed 50 steals this season. We haven't seen one player accomplish this feat since 2017 but with the new rules in play, stolen bases will be on the rise. As a bonus, I'll give you the three names that do it: Trea Turner, Corbin Carroll and Esteury Ruiz.

American League

AL East Winner: Yankees
AL Central Winner: Guardians
AL West Winner: Astros
Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners

National League

NL East Winner: Braves
NL Central Winner: Cardinals
NL West Winner: Padres
Wild Cards: Dodgers, Mets, Phillies

World Series

Braves over Mariners

Award Picks

American League

AL Rookie of the Year: Anthony Volpe
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
AL Cy Young: Cristian Javier

Award Picks

National League

NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
NL MVP: Trea Turner
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer

Scott White's Season Predictions

Fantasy Baseball Today co-host, CBS Sports Senior Fantasy Writer

Three Fantasy Bold Predictions

Corey Seager wins the AL batting title. Prior to last year, Seager was one of the more bankable .300 hitters, entering with a career mark of .297. Basically everyone who's dug into the data thinks he was the single biggest victim of infield shifts last year, and now that those are gone, something in the .315-.320 range is perfectly plausible.
Graham Ashcraft leads the Reds in strikeouts. Ashcraft underwhelmed as a rookie, but his 100 mph cutter hinted at latent potential that a new slider grip may have unlocked this spring. He wrapped up the exhibition with 25 strikeouts (to just two walks) in 17 1/3 innings, which had folks on the Reds beat asking who has the brighter future between him, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo.
Blake Sabol is a top-10 catcher in H2H points. The Rule 5 pick generated the most buzz of anyone in Giants camp, flashing a diverse skill set that included power (three homers), plate discipline (12 walks to 13 strikeouts) and even a little speed (two steals). The Giants were so taken with him that he's now in the mix for left field and designated hitter, and as a left-handed bat, he should play enough to keep up at a position where everyone has playing time concerns.

One MLB Bold Prediction

Multiple players steal 50 bases, and someone breaks 60. The league introduced new rules to promote more base-stealing this year, and if the effect at the major-league level is proportional to minor-league trials, the league's own estimates have stolen bases returning to early 2000s levels. It's sure to impact base-stealers at the high end (as predicted here) but perhaps even more of those previously on the fringes.

American League

AL East Winner: Blue Jays
AL Central Winner: White Sox
AL West Winner: Mariners
Wild Cards: Astros, Angels, Yankees

National League

NL East Winner: Braves
NL Central Winner: Cardinals
NL West Winner: Dodgers
Wild Cards: Mets, Padres, Phillies

World Series

Braves over Mariners

Award Picks

American League

AL Rookie of the Year: Anthony Volpe
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
AL Cy Young: Cristian Javier

Award Picks

National League

NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
NL MVP: Juan Soto
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer

Chris Welsh's Season Predictions

Host of the In This League podcast, FBT Contributor

Three Fantasy Bold Predictions

Corbin Carroll leads baseball in stolen bases. Carroll sits close to +1500 in most odds to lead the league in stolen bases, yet he is the fastest man in baseball according to his 2022 100th percentile sprint speed from last season. This spring Carroll stole five bases in under 50 at-bats, while sporting over a .500 OBP. Spring training saw a near 100% increase in stolen bases across baseball, and if the trend continues with the league running wild, the fastest man in baseball could steal 50-plus.
Reid Detmers is a top-20 starting pitcher in fantasy by year's end. Detmers has seen a two MPH increase on his fastball this spring, and a 4-5 mph increase on his slider. The arsenal of pitches, with the increase in velocity will lead Detmers to 200-plus strikeouts with 12-14 wins, as the Angels make the playoffs.
Dylan Cease is only the third-best Fantasy pitcher on the White Sox. As Lucas Giolito finds his rhythm to become the top pitcher for the Sox, Cease loses his command and top spot. Cease has a very small margin for error with the amount of walks he gives up, and he went from a 34% K% in the first half of 2022, to a second half 24% K%. Cease will have the strikeouts, but the inconsistencies push him behind both Giolito and Lance Lynn.

One MLB Bold Prediction

The Texas Rangers win 90 games and make it into the playoffs with both Jacob DeGrom up for Cy Young and Corey Seager up for AL MVP.

American League

AL East Winner: Yankees
AL Central Winner: White Sox
AL West Winner: Astros
Wild Cards: Mariners, Rangers, Angels

National League

NL East Winner: Mets
NL Central Winner: Cardinals
NL West Winner: Padres
Wild Cards: Phillies, Dodgers, Braves

World Series

Padres over Yankees

Award Picks

American League

AL Rookie of the Year: Anthony Volpe
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
AL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom

Award Picks

National League

NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll
NL MVP: Trea Turner
NL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

R.J. White's Season Predictions

CBS Fantasy Editor

Three Fantasy Bold Predictions

George Kirby finishes as a top-10 starting pitcher. He's going to need to go longer consistently to get there after averaging 5.2 innings per start last year. But as good as his skillset looks now, it's important to note he's still developing, with more innings in the majors last year than at all minor-league levels in his career.
Max Muncy finishes No. 1 at second base in points leagues. Muncy finally started to get things going from Aug. 1 on, but the misery of his first four months cloaked his stats in drafts this spring and left him far below his typical range in formats where his elite walk rate plays. He's looked good this spring, and the injury to Gavin Lux plus the struggles of Chris Taylor mean a career-high in games played could be on the way if he stays healthy.
Someone steals 80 bases. It's been 35 years since we had an 80-steal player in either league, but the new rules and base sizes plus the analytical way front offices and many managers think about the game will make stealing second an even bigger priority than we realize, and it may take an elite arm behind the plate to curb the aggressiveness of some teams. I wouldn't be shocked if someone made a run at 100, either.

One MLB Bold Prediction

Orioles win the AL East. Baltimore finished above .500 and 16 games out of first place last year, but it's being treated as twice that when you compare divisional odds across MLB. The collection of young talent that's MLB ready or on the doorstep is impressive, and pressure will be on to fortify the roster with that talent as the season goes along and Baltimore remains competitive.

American League