Road chalk nearly brought it home for us last week but thanks to some frisky backup quarterback behavior and a Panthers team refusing to die the death its been given, we ended up just going 4-2. The Jets should have EASILY covered and missed by a point, whereas the Packers were up double digits and managed to let Bryce Young keep storming back into the game. Such is life when you lay the points on the road.
This week we're taking a different approach, and there is absolutely no theme to these bets, outside of me liking them. Let's close 2023 strong!
Cardinals (+11) at Eagles
This line is pretty shocking: the Eagles are scuffling lately. Coming out of the bye, Philly stole games from the Chiefs and Bills, then lost three straight games before letting the Giants hang around on Christmas Day. Kyler Murray and this offense -- particularly Trey McBride -- should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia. The Eagles offense is still a little wobbly, particularly when it comes to attacking via the air. I expected big things out of A.J. Brown on Christmas Day but he and Jalen Hurts really haven't been on the same page very much lately. This spread is just too high for a Cardinals team still fighting hard -- they've lost by double digits the last two weeks but the games were closer I felt like just watching them. I'll take my chances here.
Bills (-11) vs. Patriots
I will not be taking my chances with Bill Belichick and the Pats going on the road against a very hungry Bills team thinking about the playoffs. Buffalo is coming off a close win against the Chargers but it was a tough spot -- L.A. just fired its coach, the Chargers were on a mini-bye, the Bills were traveling across the country. Now the Bills are home, get to play a HATED division rival and can potentially clinch a playoff berth (there are like 14 different scenarios including ties, but five legit scenarios for Buffalo to clinch with a win). Sean McDermott's team is undefeated since a controversy-filled bye week and the Bills would love to put the final nail in Belichick's proverbial coffin here. McDermott and the Bills have shown a proclivity for running up the score against the Pats and other division rivals late in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if they did so here.
Packers (+2) at Vikings
This is a battle of two division rivals desperate to try to find their way into the playoffs while also trying to simply field healthy rosters. The Packers have been obliterated by injuries the last few weeks but might be getting a little bit healthier for Jordan Love this week. Meanwhile the Vikings got hit with some major injuries, losing T.J. Hockenson for the season and likely Jordan Addison for this week. We should see plenty of blitzing from Brian Flores but Aaron Jones at full strength in the passing game should be enough to ease up the pressure and allow Love to get some shots open downfield as well.
Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Lions
This is a massive number for two teams very much involved in the NFC postseason. The Lions are still alive for the No. 1 seed and while a win here would put them in decent position to secure the bye, it's not likely the 49ers lose out and gift them the top spot. The Cowboys are licking their wounds after losing at Miami and continuing to lose on the road (just three road wins and none are impressive), while the Lions are coming off a massive road win against Minnesota that helped them clinch the division for the first time since 1993. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home, no matter the opponent.
Commanders (+13.5) vs. 49ers
The Washington offense has been night and day the last two weeks when Jacoby Brissett replaces Sam Howell. You can draw your own conclusions about a Wolfpacker vs. a Tar Heel, but there's a clear difference in the experience level of the two quarterbacks. Howell is the future in Ron Rivera's eyes, but Rivera isn't even the future, so whatever he says about the quarterback situation is largely irrelevant. Howell needs "a break" and that's fair, he's been beat down badly. Brissett has engineered five straight TD drives for Washington and nearly stormed back to beat a good Jets defense. The 49ers will be angry but Washington should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the explosive San Francisco offense looking to remind everyone why it's so good.
Rams (-5.5) at Giants
Road chalk was largely kind to us last week (although the Packers not covering was annoying) so let's dabble a little bit this week. Tyrod Taylor in the starting lineup is a little unnerving -- we would vastly prefer to fade Tommy DeVito here -- but the Rams are just cooking with gas right now. They could easily be on a six-game winning streak right now if not for a tough overtime loss on the road to the Ravens. Sean McVay is pulling all the right levers and Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, with Cooper Kupp looking 100% and Puka Nacua continuing to make a late-season push for OROY honors. The Giants are fighting hard to close the season, but the Rams have been dominant since their bye and know this is a MUST-WIN game to make the postseason.
