Here at CBS Sports, we are covering NFL futures from every angle. We've looked at Super Bowl value plays, division underdogs to consider placing money on and even predicted five teams that could end up having the biggest win discrepancies in 2023. Now, let's talk about some real long shots.
Below, we will discuss five "Hail Mary" long-shot future wagers to consider. The only rule for this exercise is that in any given prop, the player or team cannot be included in the top 10 shortest odds of said prop. There's plenty of value to be found everywhere, but if you hit on one of these bets, you'll be talking about it for the rest of your life.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
NFL MVP: Tyreek Hill +15000
Tyreek Hill finished second in the NFL in receptions and second in receiving yards in his first season with the Miami Dolphins, and he didn't have his starting quarterback for what was really five games. That's impressive.
In 2022, Hill caught a career-high 119 passes for a career-high 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns. He set an NFL record for most receiving yards recorded by a player in his first season with a new team, and accounted for the highest percentage of a team's receptions (32%). At 29 years old, Hill isn't out of his prime just yet, and he even said this offseason that 2,000 receiving yards is a realistic goal in 2023. Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson owns the NFL record for most receiving yards in a single season with 1,964. If Hill gets to 2,000 and passes Justin Jefferson at the same time, he could have a shot at MVP.
It's true that this award has turned into a quarterback award, and that a wide receiver has never won NFL MVP even though a kicker has, but making NFL history would help Hill's case. There's value here. $10 wins $1,500.
Super Bowl winner: Seattle Seahawks +3500
I have written plenty about the Seahawks this offseason as a team that I think could surprise some people in 2023 -- much like they did in 2022. In picking our Super Bowl sleeper, it's natural that we look to the NFC. You'll probably agree, the AFC is loaded with talent. In comparing our eligible NFC teams and SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh's simulations, we have two solid candidates for this section in the Seahawks (Super Bowl winners in 1.39% of simulations) and the New Orleans Saints (Super Bowl winners in 1.58% of simulations). Maybe the Saints have a better shot of winning their division, but I'm leaning towards Seattle as the better squad.
Derek Carr is a bit of a question mark while Geno Smith is the reigning NFL Comeback Player of the Year that set several Seahawks single-season franchise records in 2022, and led the league in completion percentage. I'm not saying he's Patrick Mahomes, but I like what's around him with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III. The offensive line isn't considered elite by any means, but if tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas experience second-year jumps, it will be solid.
Seattle's defense has been bad for years now, but Bobby Wagner is back in the fold, and this unit possesses plenty of young talent in Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, Dre'mont Jones and Darrell Taylor. Remember how good Seattle's draft class was last year? What if the front office put together another group like that this offseason?
The San Francisco 49ers deserve to be favorites in the NFC West and the Philadelphia Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL. But ultimately, this bet is a bet on Seattle's young talent taking a big collective step forward.
Offensive Player of the Year: George Pickens +12500
George Pickens is a player many are high on entering 2023, and he may have a shot at Offensive Player of the Year. The Georgia product caught just 52 passes for 801 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie season, but ranked No. 8 in the league in yards per reception (15.4).
Maybe Pickens isn't a master at creating separation, but he's a big target with incredible athletic ability. Not only is he a budding talent, but so is his quarterback, Kenny Pickett -- who flashed at times towards the end of his rookie season. If the Pittsburgh Steelers are smart, they will pepper Pickens with targets. He's a breakout candidate with huge potential.
INSSSSSSAAAANNNNNNNE!!!!
— Baku 🐧 (@Mazursky8895) August 1, 2023
The JPJ and Pickens competition heating UPPPP, Pickens does what Pickens does though and makes the craziest catch I’ve ever seen in person wow man! pic.twitter.com/XKTfOUYScK
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jalin Hyatt +4000
The University of Tennessee product was the Biletnikoff Winner last year after an All-American campaign in which he caught 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns. You'll likely remember what Hyatt did against Alabama, when he caught six passes for a whopping 207 yards and five touchdowns. Hyatt was a home-run hitter, catching 10 of 16 targets for seven touchdowns on throws that were at least 30 yards down the field. It's hard to predict how these kinds of home-run hitters will fare at the next level against stiffer competition, but Hyatt has been making waves at camp for the New York Giants with highlight after highlight. Plus, his team GPS tracked him running 24 mph during practice. If you were curious, Tyreek Hill has the in-game record at 23.24 mph.
Something else to note is that the Giants do not have one of the more elite wide receiving corps. Hyatt is going to have a chance to steal snaps and become one of Daniel Jones' favorite weapons. Wide receivers have won Offensive Rookie of the Year two seasons in a row. If a first-year quarterback doesn't dominate, this WR class could make it three.
Most regular season receiving TDs: Mark Andrews +4000
Here's an interesting one. In 2019, Andrews caught 10 touchdowns in 15 games played, which tied for second that year. He caught just five touchdowns last season while Lamar Jackson missed five games, but 2023 could be a huge year for one of the best tight ends in the game.
With the arrival of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, many are expecting the Baltimore Ravens to pass the ball more. Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers are intriguing wideouts, but Andrews could be Baltimore's red zone stud. He has that kind of potential.
