And then there were eight. The playoff pool has been whittled down to just eight remaining clubs following Super Wild Card Weekend, and now the No. 1 seeds enter the picture. For our part, we had a strong thumb on the opening round of the postseason, picking all six games correctly straight-up, while going 4-1-1 ATS. The Dolphins covering in their surprisingly close head-to-head with Buffalo was our lone ATS loss, and we pushed by backing the Bengals -7 over the Ravens.
We'll try to keep that momentum rolling in the same direction this week as we turn our attention to the divisional round where we have two of the bigger Super Bowl favorites falling.
2022 record
Playoffs
ATS: 4-1-1
ML: 6-0-0
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 41-45-4
ATS: 125-137-9
ML: 172-97-2
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Jaguars at Chiefs
Laying 8.5 points with a team like Kansas City that did struggle to pull away from clubs this season does seem like a shaky road to go down, but the Chiefs feel like a team that has simply been waiting to flip the switch.
After the bye, they're beginning another playoff run with Patrick Mahomes, who has been playing at an MVP level to end the year. He has a mismatch against this Jacksonville defense that could see him slice his way up the field. The Jags allowed an NFL-high 6.8 yards per attempt against throws coming out in under 2.5 seconds. Meanwhile, Mahomes led the NFL in EPA per drop with under 2.5 seconds to throw this season. One of his main targets, of course, will be Travis Kelce, who now faces a Jacksonville defense that allowed the third-most receiving yards and third-most yards per reception to tight ends this season. Translation: K.C. should be able to move the football at will.
Back when these teams met in Week 10, the Chiefs were able to beat the Jaguars by 10 and were even up by 20 at halftime. Two second-half turnovers in that game allowed things to be a bit closer than they actually were. So long as Mahomes keeps the turnovers from getting out of hand this weekend, Kanas City should roll.
This matchup is also another head-to-head for Andy Reid against one of his former assistants in Doug Pederson. Reid has a stellar record against his coaching tree, which includes a 4-0 record in the playoffs.
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 21
The pick: Chiefs -8.5
Giants at Eagles
The Giants are the darlings of the NFL playoffs right now. They were a popular pick last week to upset the Vikings and now folks are whispering that they could be crashing the party in the NFC. While Brian Daboll is arguably the best remaining coach in the conference in these playoffs, let's hold on a second before we ship the Lombardi Trophy to East Rutherford.
No team needed a first-round bye more than the Eagles. Jalen Hurts was banged up, Lane Johnson needed time to heal, and there are certainly a vast array of players on the roster who also enjoyed getting the week to recuperate. Philadelphia should be healthier with that week off and -- as we saw throughout the regular season -- a healthy Eagles team is lethal.
Philadelphia should be able to run all over this Giants defense that ranked last in the NFL in DVOA against the run and ranked 30th in the league in rushing yards per attempt (5.2). That could mean another big day for Miles Sanders, who rushed for a career-high 144 yards against this defense back in Week 14.
While I expect Philadelphia to be able to move the ball offensively, we now have to turn our attention to the Eagles defense slowing down Daniel Jones and the Giants. Philly did provide the second-best pressure rate in the NFL this season, while New York's offensive line allowed the most pressure in the league. We saw that on display back in Week 14 when the Eagles sacked Jones four times in a 48-22 win. I think we see similar pressure applied on Jones in this game, which slows down what the Giants can do offensively.
Again, don't underestimate just how important that bye was for the Eagles. I'll ride with a well-rested team with a higher talent ceiling when healthy.
Projected score: Eagles 28, Giants 20
The pick: Eagles -7.5
Bengals at Bills
Josh Allen's recent sloppy play has me fading Buffalo as it hosts the Bengals. The Bills quarterback had three turnovers as they narrowly escaped an upset against the Dolphins last weekend, and that piles on top of the 19 turnovers he had during the regular season. Now, he faces a Bengals defense that enjoyed a plus-6 turnover differential in the regular season, which ranked top five in the NFL. With Joe Burrow waiting on the opposing sideline, Cincinnati is the type of offense you do not want to give a short field to, nor do you want to squander any scoring opportunities which I expect Buffalo to do once or twice.
I also don't think that Buffalo instills much fear into the Bengals. Before play was stopped in their Week 17 matchup, Cincy elected to take the ball to begin that game and marched down the field for a touchdown. Offensively, the Bengals feel like they can move the ball against this Bills defense that does seem like it can be beaten deep. Last week, Dolphins receivers were able to get a step on Bills corners, but simply couldn't haul in the ball. I don't think Burrow has that problem this week with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cincinnati's banged-up offensive line is an issue, but I do think Burrow is savvy enough to get the ball out quickly to try to negate how much of an impact that'll be in this game.
Projected score: Bengals 33, Bills 27
The pick: Bengals +5
Cowboys at 49ers
The Cowboys looked like a legit Super Bowl contender in their win on Super Wild Card Weekend. However, I do wonder how much of it was them finally clicking and how much of it was due to their opponent in the Buccaneers. After all, Tampa Bay was a default playoff team after an 8-9 season that saw them go 4-7 against non-NFC South teams. With that in mind, the Cowboys should have blown them out, right?
Now, they go from that meek opponent to a 49ers team that may be the most complete team remaining in these playoffs. Brock Purdy has not shown any signs that the playoff lights are too bright for him as the rookie totaled four touchdowns and threw for 332 yards in the win over Seattle. I expect San Francisco's offensive line to limit how impactful Dallas' pass rush will be against Purdy and Kyle Shanahan will also scheme up plays that negate pressure on his rookie QB as well. Speaking of Shanahan, he is 6-1 ATS in the playoffs as a head coach, which includes a 4-0 ATS record in the previous two postseasons.
As for the Cowboys, I think everyone was stunned that Dak Prescott did not turn the ball over after being extremely loose with the football since returning from his thumb injury. I do expect him to revert to more of the quarterback we've seen this season against a Niners defense that led the NFL with a plus-13 turnover differential and 20 interceptions.
Projected score: 49ers 27, Cowboys 23
The pick: 49ers -3.5
