What has been a very active NBA offseason is starting, slowly, to wind down, with all the big-name free agents off the market after Gordon Hayward signed with the Boston Celtics on Tuesday.
Trades are still being discussed and may well happen; big-name players like Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony and even Marc Gasol -- rumored to be on Boston's radar -- could end up elsewhere. But with a pretty good idea of how things will shake out, let's get to some evaluatiion with our first offseason 3-man weave.
Who has been the biggest offseason winner so far?
Brad Botkin: This is really tough. So many teams have made significant upgrades, but I'll go with the Rockets, who added Chris Paul and kept Nene on a very team-friendly three-year, $11 million deal. Pretty simply, Houston, the Timberwolves, Oklahoma City and Boston have upgraded the most, and right now, if I had to pick, I think Houston is the best of those three. But, man, is it a close call over OKC, which pulled off a magic-trick summer to put Paul George and the quietly really good Patrick Patterson next to Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams and newly re-signed Andre Roberson.
For me, George being most likely a one-year rental than Paul swung the tide in Houston's favor. Paul -- also a 2018 free agent -- could leave Houston, but unlike George, he hasn't been telling pretty much anyone who will listen that he wants to play for the Lakers. If the Rockets are good, he would have no reason to leave, especially since they can offer him the same max deal he could've gotten from the Clippers.
This was a power move with long-term potential for the Rockets, who are also reportedly in play for Carmelo Anthony. If that were to happen, Houston would, in my mind, be a legit threat to the Warriors.
James Herbert: The Thunder, and I don't think it's particularly close. Getting George for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis should have sent the rest of the league into hysterics, like when Gregg Popovich advocated for a "trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense" after the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Pau Gasol in 2008. Getting Patterson to accept a smaller annual salary than he got on his last deal was another amazing accomplishment, as he will round out a starting five that suddenly should be considered one of the league's best. Westbrook may not average a triple-double again next season, but he'll be better because GM Sam Presti has built a team that complements him. This presumably will increase their chances of getting Westbrook to sign a long-term deal with the franchise that drafted him a few months after that Gasol trade .
Matt Moore: As Brad said, Paul is a potential one-year rental, too (like George). He agreed to sign with Houston, but to be able to absorb him, they had to trade for him. So he's got a year there. But if it goes badly, he could leave. That's why I'll give it to OKC. They added a superstar in his prime at a moment where there were concerns over whether the MVP (Westbrook, their second MVP in four seasons) would stay. If they leave, sure, it's a bummer, but for this offseason, for what Sam Presti gave up? It's an incredible deal.
Then you've got Patterson on a steal of a deal, and kept Roberson at less than $12 million per year. Incredible. Presti had no wiggle room and no options -- and not even his draft pick to work with -- yet somehow upgraded a playoff roster. Just a masterful job.
Who has had the toughest offseason so far?
Brad Botkin: The easy answer is the Indiana Pacers, who lost George for a return that included no draft picks and Oladipo's potentially debilitating contract, which still has four years and $84 million left on it. But I'll go with the Utah Jazz for the simple fact they have done everything right (perhaps besides offer Hayward a max deal three years ago) to build a winner in a small market since Deron Williams, their last superstar, left in 2011. That's a six-year process that was finally coming to fruition.
The Jazz won 51 games last season and got to the second round. Rudy Gobert is an All-NBA center. The just traded for Ricky Rubio, who Hayward reportedly asked them to get. There was real reason for optimism; not just the tempered optimism of a middle-class team, but real optimism, and it all just blew up with Hayward's departure.
Indiana was always going to get the raw end of any George deal considering everyone knew they had no leverage (though it didn't have to be that bad), but the Jazz, rightfully, believed they could get Hayward back, and he was reportedly torn on his decision as late as Tuesday afternoon. That makes this sting all the worse.
James Herbert: The Eastern Conference. We're at the point where Philadelphia 76ers general manager Bryan Colangelo is actively trying to tamp down expectations for a team that will rely on two rookies as the primary playmakers. Now that George, Jimmy Butler and Paul Millsap have gone to the West, the Sixers not only could make the playoffs, but wind up with the sixth or seventh seed. Hayward joining the Boston Celtics will make the East All-Stars look a bit more respectable, but it doesn't do much to shift the balance of power -- Boston already was the No. 1 seed last season, and the Utah Jazz should still be in the playoff picture. The worst part about the Indiana Pacers, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks deciding to rebuild is that, because they're all doing this at the same time, the tank jobs have to be that much more severe in order to come out with a high lottery pick.
Matt Moore: I'll go with the Clippers. Yes, they kept Blake Griffin, but to keep him, they had to shell out a five-year max to a guy with an injury history. And that history is particularly concerning because of multiple knee injuries on top of a variety of other ailments. Meanwhile they lost Paul, one of the best point guards of this generation, a floor leader and a consistent force of nature.
They also lost J.J. Redick to the Sixers. They've lost a lot of basketball IQ and skill, and weren't able to come up with much to replace it. Danilo Gallinari is a nice get, but it cost them Jamal Crawford in a sign-and-trade.
Think of it this way: The worst-case scenario for the Jazz is having to pull the plug on a relatively easy rebuild. The worst case scenario for the East is that the Sixers and Bucks rise to prominence in a vacuum post-LeBron James (should he leave the Cavs for a West team after next season), along with the Celtics. The worst case scenario for the Clippers is an injury-marred purgatory where they are cap-strapped in the West. Not great.
Which player will thrive most on new team?
Brad Botkin: Paul has played with great players before, so teaming up with James Harden isn't new in that regard (though Paul at the head of Mike D'Antoni's system with that much shooting is scary). Hayward will be in largely the same ensemble system in Boston that he was in Utah, and Butler has already played for Tom Thibodeau.
Paul George is the real winner because he has never played next to a player even close to the caliber of Westbrook. Those two together are going to be dynamite. George doesn't need the ball in his hands to thrive, so there isn't the potential of redundant skill sets that there is in Houston. If you look up and down the roster, OKC looks like a monster defensive team and -- with George there to help out Westbrook as a scorer and playmaker -- the Thunder are really dangerous, even in an absolutely loaded West.
James Herbert: I'd really love to say Nick Young here, but let's go with George. He has been desperate to be on a top-tier team since he came back from his leg injury, and Indiana's front office never was able to surround him with the supporting cast that could escape mediocrity. Now, without the burden of reversing a franchise's fortunes, he should flourish next to Westbrook -- the best co-star he's ever had -- and Adams. I wouldn't be surprised if this works so well that he ends up ditching his plan to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers and instead spends his prime in Oklahoma City.
Matt Moore: Paul Millsap. One of the smartest players in the league gets a crew of young, smart players around him. He'll make Denver's defense better, which isn't hard to do considering it was the worst in the league at times last season. Millsap fits very well into Denver' system, and Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray only will get better.
Paul will have to find a fit, George has to adjust to someone as ball-dominant as Westbrook, Hayward may get lost in the shuffle at times. But Millsap, one of the game's most underrated players for years, will shine on an up-and-coming team.
