We're at the point of the football season where Fantasy seasons are won and lost. Most of you are still in the playoff race and most of you haven't clinched yet. How you process new information matters as much, if not more, than it ever has.
You have to be right about whether a rookie quarterback turned the corner or a second-round receiver is no longer a starting option. You have to process one week of Browns running back data and decided how much it scares you moving forward. You're almost out of time to decide whether to sell on breakout receivers or buy potentially an even higher ceiling.
Sounds like a lot? You're not alone. Let's dive into this week's hottest topics for Believe It or Not:
Kyler Murray is a must-start QB rest of season.
Murray took advantage of a bad Buccaneers defense in Week 10 with 324 passing yards, three touchdowns and 38 yards on the ground. This, a week after putting up a very efficient 275 total yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. The Cardinals went through some offensive struggles but it looks like Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have figured things out. Outside of his Week 12 bye you should count on starting Kyler Murray moving forward.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
We're not that far removed from Murray going back-to-back games with no scores and fewer than 250 total yards. While he and the offense have absolutely looked improved, I'm not sure I'm going to want to start him in the next month. His next four weeks look like this: at San Francisco, Bye, vs. Rams, vs. Steelers. All three of those defenses are allowing fewer than 18 Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
If you have Murray and you're in the playoff race you should be looking for a quarterback with a more favorable upcoming schedule. If you're already in the playoffs, you need to try to trade him for the quarterback he just faced. Jameis Winston gets the Colts, Lions and Texans in the Fantasy playoffs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is a sit until further notice.
I think we've found our biggest bust of 2019. Smith-Schuster has six catches for 60 yards over his past two games combined. He has one game with more than seven PPR Fantasy points in the past month. He currently ranks as the No. 34 receiver in PPR scoring. While he's still a talented young receiver with a bright future, he's not someone you should trust with your Fantasy season on the line.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
What did you expect against the Rams? Smith-Schuster is no longer a must-start receiver regardless of matchup, and this was a particularly bad matchup. But that doesn't mean he's a must-sit either. He's played parts of seven games with Mason Rudolph. In four of those games he has at least 13 Fantasy points. In three of those games he's scored between four and seven points.
While he's no sure thing, he's still worth starting against the right matchup. In the next four weeks he faces the Bengals, the Cardinals, and the Browns twice. I'll start him in most of those.
Kareem Hunt is going to be a problem for Nick Chubb.
This might seem like a weird one since Chubb just ran for 116 yards in Hunt's first game back. He was averaging 22.4 touches without Hunt and he touched the ball 22 times on Sunday. So what's the problem?
It's the split. Hunt had half as many touches as Chubb. There are going to be weeks where there are only 25 touches for the running backs to go around. A split of 16 to eight is far less appealing.
Verdict: Believe it.
Dontrell Hilliard never had more than eight touches in a game and only had more than five twice. If Hunt's getting a third of the total work, it's a problem for Chubb. What's worse is so much of Hunt's work came in the passing game, and those touches are more valuable than runs between the 20s.
Chubb is still a high-end No. 2 running back for me rest of season, but he doesn't have the same weekly upside. Hunt now becomes a PPR flex. The next question is whether we just saw a full workload for Hunt or if his role grows from here.
The best is still to come for DJ Moore this season.
Moore just posted his second consecutive 100-yard game and now has 40 targets in his past four games. He's clearly established himself as the No. 1 option for Kyle Allen in the passing game and is delivering a solid WR2 season for Fantasy managers. Moore is averaging almost nine targets per game and nearly nine yards per target this season. That's the profile of an elite receiver, but the best is still yet to come because Moore has only reached the end zone once.
Verdict: Believe it.
Every other receiver in the NFL with as many yards as Moore has at least three touchdowns. All but one of them (Keenan Allen) has scored four times. Not convinced? He gets the Falcons twice in the next month. He also faces Washington, Seattle and the Colts down the stretch. Moore won't be cheap, but he's a buy-high if I've ever seen one.
