The Jets haven't been even a .500 team since 2015, and they fell to 2-14 behind a historically bad offense in 2020, so it's no surprise Adam Gase was let go. They're fully in rebuild mode, but with Zach Wilson and new coach Robert Saleh, at least they know what the future looks like. And, if Wilson and rookie WR Elijah Moore and RB Michael Carter are as good as advertised, this could be a very exciting team for Fantasy very quickly.
Record: 2 - 14 (31)
PPG: 15.2 (32)
YPG: 279.9 (32)
Pass YPG: 174.8 (31)
Rush YPG: 105.2 (23)
PAPG: 31.2 (29)
RAPG: 25.4 (22)
2020 Fantasy finishes
Number to know: 952
The Jets averaged 952 offensive plays during the two seasons of the Adam Gase era, ranking 26th and 31st over the last two seasons. They were dead last in yards per play and rate of drives scored on in 2020, but they compounded that with their sluggish pace, turning a bad offense into one that scored nearly 40 fewer points than the second-worst offense and more than 150 points fewer than the average. It's hard to say exactly how this offense may play because Mike LaFleur has never been an offensive coordinator, but it seems likely this will be one of the most improved in the league. Just because things can't get much worse.
1. (2) Zach Wilson, QB
1. (14) Alijah Vera-Tucker, G
2. (34) Elijah Moore, WR
4. (107) Michael Carter, RB
5. (146) Jamien Sherwood, S
5. (154) Michael Carter II, S
5. (175) Jason Pinnock, CB
6. (186) Hamsah Nasirildeen, S
6. (200) Brandin Echols, CB
238 carries, 40 RB targets, 125 WR targets, 11 TE targets
Chris Towers' projections
|QB||Zach Wilson||PA: 567, YD: 4032, TD: 23, INT: 17; RUSH -- ATT: 64, YD: 298, TD: 3|
|RB||Michael Carter||CAR: 163, YD: 667, TD: 5; TAR: 56, REC: 39, YD: 298, TD: 2|
|RB||Tevin Coleman||CAR: 132, YD: 532, TD: 3; TAR: 34, REC: 23, YD: 162, TD: 1|
|WR||Corey Davis||TAR: 122, REC: 73, YD: 952, TD: 5|
|WR||Denzel Mims||TAR: 82, REC: 49, YD: 632, TD: 5|
|WR||Elijah Moore||TAR: 111, REC: 70, YD: 802, TD: 5|
|WR||Jamison Crowder||TAR: 77, REC: 49, YD: 515, TD: 3|
|TE||Chris Herndon||TAR: 56, REC: 39, YD: 498, TD: 3|
Is Michael Carter the RB1?
In all likelihood, this will probably still be a below-average offense in 2021 -- and that's putting it nicely -- but Carter is one of the rookies here with a real opportunity to establish himself as a Fantasy starter. He'll compete with veteran Tevin Coleman for the starting job, and Coleman has been good enough when healthy to have a consistent role. However, Carter has upside as a pass-catcher that could keep him relevant even if he's splitting work with Coleman, and if he gets the job outright, he could be a solid Fantasy option. He's a nice sleeper option if he's going in the middle rounds, but if hype starts to push Carter up into the Round 5-6 range, he could be a bit riskier.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
There was an error processing your subscription.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
Reading reports out of OTAs and minicamp for the Jets, you couldn't help but come away thinking Moore might just be the team's leading receiver from Day One. Ahead of big free agent addition Corey Davis, 2020 second-rounder Denzel Mims, and returning lead receiver Jamison Crowder. He's drawn comparisons to Antonio Brown as a potential No. 1 WR despite his diminutive size, and the numbers he put up in college are even more impressive when you remember he was just 20 years old as a junior. Moore could be the steal of the 2021 wide receiver class and a must-start Fantasy receiver. It may not happen as a rookie, but he could be a very useful Fantasy option, worth drafting outside of the top 100.
Carter was never used as an every-down Alpha back in college, and he probably won't be used that way with the Jets, either. But it sure looks like he's got a chance to be the lead back in Week 1, and if you trust reports out of OTA and minicamps, Carter apparently looked like by far the best running back on the team. At the very least, it sounds like he should be the best pass-catcher of the bunch, and it may not take much to beat out Coleman as the lead rusher, too. If those rave reviews from minicamps continue into training camp, Carter could be one of the fastest risers at the position this summer.
I really don't think Carter is much of a risk to bust if you can get him in the seventh or eighth round -- his ADP since the NFL Draft is 86.7 overall. That's a fine price for him, and I actually like him even if I have to reach up to the sixth round. However, if everyone else picks up on the reasons to like him from the previous writeup and his price starts to increase, I could be moved off him. There is still, I think, a pretty low ceiling on this offense, and Carter is likely to split work all season. We're talking about a fourth-round pick here, and the track record of those even at running back is pretty bad. The most likely outcome is, he's a fringe Fantasy starter. If he starts to get drafted above that, it's harder to justify.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.