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Courtland Sutton, Aaron Jones and the Lions receivers should see more opportunity.
We've talked about these guys a lot in our coverage of the trade deadline this week, but much of that was centered on rest-of-season value. If anything, these trades have a bigger impact in Week 9 with six teams on a bye.
We'll start with the Lions receivers, who have an interesting matchup this week. The Vikings are a good defense, even if they haven't been as good as we expected. But they really only have one corner who would scare you -- Xavier Rhodes -- and he's banged up right now. As for the receivers themselves, they've been awesome when they've seen volume.
Marvin Jones has seen seven targets or more in 10 games over the past two seasons. He's topped 100 yards or scored a touchdown in eight of those games. He's done both four times. Kenny Golladay has seen seven targets four times this year. He's scored in three of those games and had 114 yards in the other one. With Tate gone, seven targets should be close to the floor for Golladay and Jones. They're both top-12 receivers this week.
Sutton was the receiver most talked about as the biggest winner of the trade deadline, but there are still a lot of unknowns. Emmanuel Sanders is still going to dominate targets in Denver, but there's plenty of room for the rookie to pick up a 20 percent target share. With Case Keenum averaging 35 attempts per game, that could mean seven targets for Sutton. At his current rate, that would project out to 61 yards a game and multiple red-zone opportunities. He's not a must-start yet this week, but he's absolutely a must-own.
Jones was the biggest running back winner, and he doesn't need much of a volume increase to be a top-20 running back. In fact, whenever he's gotten double-digit carries he's been at least a No. 2 back. My expectation is Jones gets 13 carries against the Patriots this week and maintains his efficiency as the Patriots play soft because of Aaron Rodgers. Jones is a top-20 back in non-PPR and a high-end flex in PPR.
Fitzmagic is back and you should start him.
It hasn't mattered who has started for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because they've largely been good in Fantasy. I don't expect that will change this week against Carolina, even if that means we have to wait until garbage time for Fitzmagic.
In the three full games Fitzpatrick has played this season, he's thrown for at least 400 yards and three touchdowns in all of them. If you combine the other two halves he's played, it's 320 yards and two touchdowns. With six teams on a bye, he's a no-doubt starter. Here's an incomplete list of quarterbacks I'd start him over:
Mitchell Trubisky
Deshaun Watson
Ben Roethlisberger
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Philip Rivers
Russell Wilson
The Falcons face a difficult matchup outdoors.
Were you shocked to see Matt Ryan's name on the list above. He's in a pretty awful spot this week.
First, he's outdoors. In two games outside this year, he's thrown one touchdown pass. In his career, his Y/A falls from 7.85 to 7.17 in the elements. And that's not even the biggest challenge. This Washington defense is legit. It has been above-average in terms of Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and running backs and just added Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Redskins have yet to give up more than 21 points at home.
Ryan is a borderline top-12 quarterback, but only because six teams are on bye. The only must-start on this team is Julio Jones, but Tevin Coleman is a high-end flex, and it's possible you don't have a better tight end option than Austin Hooper. Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are boom-or-bust flexes, but you can find a better option.
Be wary of usage for Demaryius Thomas and Amari Cooper.
The new landing spots for Thomas and Cooper could be outstanding for them later in the year. Maybe even in a couple of weeks. But I'm nervous about their first game with their new teams. Cooper has at least had the bye week to learn what the Cowboys are doing and practice with Dak Prescott. Thomas has barely had time to try on his new uniform. If you have another top-36 receiver, it would be safer to trust them.
Nick Chubb and Latavius Murray are in outstanding spots.
If you can get a running back at home, on a team that is favored, against a bad defense you have to feel really good about it. Murray is all of those things this week, so let's hope Dalvin Cook takes another week off. Murray has been running like a back who doesn't want to give this job up. In his past three games he has 336 total yards and four touchdowns. He's the No. 5 running back in non-PPR leagues. A Lions defense that's giving up more than 5 yards per carry is not going to slow him down.
Chubb only has two of the three factors (his team is an eight-point underdog), but his matchup against the Chiefs is good enough I can overlook it. Kansas City has given up 5.4 yards per carry on the ground and struggled mightily with tackling. Their leading tackler (Anthony Hitchens) hasn't practiced yet this week because of severely bruised ribs. Worried about game script? Chubb had 18 touches last week in a game the team lost by 15 points.
Expects shootouts in New Orleans and New England.
Well, duh.
Obviously you're starting all four quarterbacks in these games, and you're starting all the Rams you normally would. But there are some sleepers on these offensive juggernauts.
Tre'Quan Smith is a solid No. 3 receiver against a Rams secondary that has struggled recently. Cordarrelle Patterson is too if Sony Michel is ruled out. Patterson had 10 carries in Week 8 without Michel. Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Gernimo Allison, and Randall Cobb are all low-floor, high-ceiling plays against the Patriots. If Week 8 is any indication, Valdes-Scantling should expect the most playing time.
Nick Mullens may be the starting quarterback for the 49ers.
Never did I ever think I'd be worried about the availability of C.J. Beathard for Fantasy purposes. But here we are. If Beathard is inactive Thursday night, I'm doing everything I can to sit Marquise Goodwin (I don't love him even if Beathard plays). I'd also be nervous about Matt Breida and George Kittle, but the bye weeks may mean you have to start them.
On the Raiders side, this would make their terrible defense viable. It would also be a boost for Doug Martin and a ding to the value of Derek Carr, Jalen Richard and the rest of the passing game. Let's hope Beathard is able to go.
Unless you own Ezekiel Elliott, you may want to avoid Monday Night Football.
Dallas and Tennessee are two good defensive teams and both have struggling offenses. Even with the bye weeks, neither quarterback is in my top-18. Dion Lewis is the better bet among Titans running backs, but his floor is extremely low. I believe Corey Davis will figure things out with an easier schedule moving forward, but I'm not confident it will happen in Week 9. And we already talked about my reservations over Cooper.
The only Fantasy options you should definitely start Monday night are Elliott and both DSTs.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 9? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
