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USATSI

Each week, I go Beyond the Boxscore at SportsLine to provide Fantasy lineup advice on key players that may differ from traditional Fantasy analysis as we dig into the advanced data to unearth players like Puka Nacua -- who was advised as a player to start in Week 1 -- Nico Collins (Week 2) or Tank Dell (Week 3). Last week, BTB called for big bounce-back game for Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who responded with his best game of the season, scoring 18 PPR points (sixth at the running back position) against the Raiders.

The SportsLine Beyond the Boxscore Lineup Advice column covers a wide range of players, including which popular waiver additions are worth starting immediately and finding upside plays at every position with our tiered look at start-worthy players. Here on CBS Sports, we'll share one key Beyond the Boxscore recommendation every week as well. And this week, we're going with a big breakout game for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Seahawks used a ton of two-tight end sets early in the season, which I believe had something to do with losing both starting tackles. Abraham Lucas is not quite ready to make his return, but Seattle did get Charles Cross back in Week 6. We saw Seattle use far fewer two-TE sets in Week 6, the first game following a Week 5 bye. Fewer two tight end sets means more three-receiver sets, which means more playing time for Round 1 rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle played from behind for most of that game, which may be a simple enough explanation for the change. For what it's worth, their 11-personnel rate was 58% when tied or leading in Week 6, up from 48% when tied/leading prior to the bye week.

There's no guarantee that Week 6's usage change will stick. But there are reasons -- the "post-bye rookie bump" and the return of a starting left tackle, namely -- to believe that it might.

In Week 7, Seattle faces a Cardinals defense that brings a league-low 16% blitz rate. This doesn't feel like a matchup where additional in-line tight ends will be needed. And Geno Smith has been below average when blitzed since the start of 2022, but is the best in the NFL according to many metrics when not blitzed during that time. This is a great matchup for Smith.

The Arizona defense is so tricky. Defensive coordinator Nick Rallis (29 years old at the time of his hire) uses Cover-4 a league-high 30% of the time. The NFL average is 15%. More than any team in the NFL, the Cardinals "disguise" two-high safety looks pre-snap, which I don't quite understand since it's clear that they don't blitz. Instead, Arizona pretends to be blitzing and drops back into Cover-4 and Cover-6 looks.

The Cardinals do rock single-high looks a decent amount -- Cover-3 is their second-most prevalent scheme (26%), but that's down from a league average of 36%. It's a weird defense.

The results have been interesting. Teams are not attacking Arizona down the field very often. Only the Packers have fewer opponent passes traveling 15-plus air yards per game. In neutral situations (score within six points), Arizona has the third-fewest opponent deep passes per game. It's not just a product of not needing to be aggressive, quarterbacks simply aren't choosing to attack down the field very often against the Cardinals coverage scheme. When they do, though, quarterbacks have found success -- Arizona's opponent completion percentage on deep passes (67%) is the highest in the NFL and one of just three rates above 55%. The league average is 42%.

That was a ton of context. The Cardinals are a unique defense. I've been attempting to figure out what they're doing all year, because we've seen some massive WR performances from varying WR archetypes against Arizona's defense. Brandon Aiyuk caught six of six targets for 148 yards vs. Arizona. Ja'Marr Chase went for 15-192-3 on 18 targets vs. the Cardinals. And last week, Cooper Kupp turned in a 7-148-1 line on nine targets.

Chase did a lot of his damage from the slot and on short targets, while both Aiyuk and Kupp torched Arizona down the field. This could be a blow-up spot for DK Metcalf, who has been used down the field more than ever before in 2023. And after digging into Geno Smith's tendencies, I believe this could be a blow-up spot for Smith-Njigba (who knows what that means with all of 4.4 yards per target to his name through five games) as well.

Try as he might to confound me, Nick Rallis and his bizarre tendencies can be figured out (I think) thanks to my access to excellent tools such as TruMedia and the FantasyPoints Data Suite. Per TruMedia, Geno Smith trails only Jalen Hurts in passer rating vs. Cover-4 or Cover-6 since the start of 2022. Also per TruMedia, Smith's average time to throw is well above the NFL average when facing those zone schemes. He's right in line with the average vs. other coverage schemes. Interestingly, Geno's average depth of target relative to the NFL average drops vs. these schemes. But, his deep throw rate rises. He's taking his time and looking for the deep ball, but not always risking an actual deep throw.

The FantasyPoints Data Suite allows me to get even more specific. In 2023, when facing zone coverage schemes that were presented as pre-snap single-high safety looks, Smith's average depth of target is only 7.6 yards, right in line with the NFL average. In 2022, his aDOT was just 7.0 in these situations. But again, we find his deep throw rate to be not reflective of his middling aDOT. In 2023, Smith has the seventh-highest deep throw rate in such situations. In 2022, his deep throw rate was right in line with the average.

I expect Smith to find success against Arizona's gimmicky coverage schemes, and the lack of blitzes will give him plenty of time to make his decisions. He absolutely could find Metcalf for multiple deep shots, but if his tendencies are any indication, I'd expect a rather cautious approach to airing it out, which could mean some new career-highs for Smith-Njigba.

Smith-Njigba sits at WR41 in my Week 7 rankings, which is the highest he's been all year. I'd start him ahead of K.J. Osborn, Tutu Atwell, Jahan Dotson, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Elijah Moore, to name a few. For more plays like this one, make sure you go Beyond the Boxscore at SportsLine.