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USATSI

Our long national nightmare is over. Aaron Rodgers is, officially, finally, a New York Jet. 

The Packers and Jets agreed on the long-simmering trade Monday afternoon that will send the four-time NFL MVP to the Jets, and the Packers made out pretty well for themselves. Sure, they're losing arguably the best QB in franchise history, but they acquired the No. 13 and 42 picks in this year's NFL draft (plus a sixth-rounder), along with a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the Jets' snaps this season; the Jets received No. 15 and 170 in this year's draft, in addition to Rodgers.

It's a fascinating trade, albeit one we've had plenty of time to process since Rodgers announced back in March that he would be joining the Jets. I wrote about the deal back then, and while the trade compensation changes how both teams will approach this year's draft, it doesn't change the Fantasy outlook too much. The Fantasy Football Today team also analyzed this deal in a podcast here.

So, here are my (updated) thoughts on the deal and what it means for both sides: 

Jets outlook with Aaron Rodgers

This trade hinges on whether Aaron Rodgers is still the same guy he once was. He won the MVP in 2021, but his production declined precipitously last season: 

The most important question to answer when talking about this move is whether Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers at this point. He sure didn't look like himself last season. Let's look at the numbers first: 

Rodgers in 2022

  • TD%: 4.8% (third-lowest of his career)
  • Y/A: 6.8 (second-lowest of his career
  • Passer rating: 91.1 (career low)
  • QBR: 39.3 (career low)

After ranking third in the league in completion percentage over expected in 2021 at 3.3%, Rodgers sported a -1.6% mark last season, a significant drop. And, to a certain extent, the loss of Davante Adams surely played a part in Rodgers' regression. Adams was Rodgers go-to target, and the Packers replaced him primarily with rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs who, while they had their moments, struggled with injuries and consistency.

Trust has always seemed like a big key for Rodgers, and he openly expressed his frustration with the number of "mental errors" the Packers were making last season. Whether he'll be able to gain that confidence in his new Jets teammates remains to be seen, but it's clear he didn't fully have it with his options in Green Bay. It's also worth noting that Rodgers was playing through a broken thumb for much of the season, which surely didn't help his performance, despite his public protestations that it wasn't an issue. 

The good news is, there's some built-in familiarity here. Rodgers is reunited with former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the Jets added Allen Lazard in free agency, who led the Packers in targets last season. That should hopefully help create a softer landing spot, but if Rodgers is going to get back to MVP form, he's going to do so with a healthy helping of Garrett Wilson. 

And, to be clear, Rodgers is a clear upgrade over what the Jets had last year, even if he never gets back to his MVP form. Whether he does will determine whether giving up what will likely be a 2024 first-round pick ends up being worth it, of course. But seeing as the Jets quarterbacks collectively managed a 2.4% touchdown rate and 6.4 yards per attempt last season, it would be awfully hard for it not to be an upgrade. 

I'm operating under the assumption that Wilson will remain the No. 1 option in this offense, and he was my No. 10 WR in my post-FA rankings reset (which was already operating under the assumption that this trade would be consummated). That might be giving him too much credit in a relatively uncertain situation, but Wilson just had 83 catches for 1,103 yards as a 22-year-old with terrible QB play, so projecting improvement seems like a safe assumption -- I've got him down for 90-1,215-8 on 139 targets. 

Outside of that, there are questions. Lazard brings familiarity with Rodgers to the table, but his "breakout" season in 2022 saw him finish as WR37 in PPR scoring. I expect much of the same. Fellow new Jet  Mecole Hardman brings explosive speed to the offense, but he was just WR34 last season despite six touchdowns in eight games. Both seem like fine dice rolls as No. 4 or (preferably) 5 WRs for your Fantasy team, but this should be Wilson's show. 

As for Rodgers? Well, I think it's pretty unlikely he gets back to being a high-end Fantasy option, but a bounceback isn't out of the question. The QB position starts to run out of sure-fire options around the low-end QB1 range, and I think Rodgers can fit in there, along with the likes of Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Daniel Jones, among a few others. He's QB 15 for me right now, sandwiched between Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford. Call them "The Boring Bros."

Hopefully, Rodgers will be a rising tide that lifts all boats, including uber-talented second-year RB Breece Hall, who hopes to be ready for the start of the season from the knee injury that ended his rookie season. Hall is RB15 for me right now, but there's a lot of wiggle room in both directions, but especially down, if we get some negative reports in the coming months. For what it's worth, Robert Saleh recently told reporters he is "expected to be ready for Week 1." Cautious optimism reigns for now. 

The 2022 Broncos are a cautionary tale -- new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's presence with both squads is hopefully nothing more than a funny coincidence -- and Rodgers' real regression last season suggests there are more than a few ways for this to go wrong. But Wilson and Hall look like elite talents, and you don't have to project Rodgers to be his peak self to believe they'll benefit from his presence. The upside of the rest of the offense will depend on how good Rodgers can still be. 

Packers outlook without Aaron Rodgers

The nice thing is, the Packers have known their post-Rodgers plans for a while. Jordan Love has been sitting behind Rodgers for three years since he was the No. 26 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, and he's going to get his first extended look right before the Packers have to make a decision on his long-term future.

We've seen a bit of Love, who has completed 50 of 83 passes (60.2%) in the NFL. He's averaged 7.3 yards per attempt with a 3.6% touchdown rate, though obviously, the sample sizes here are too small to draw many conclusions from -- though Dave Richard looked at the tape a few months back to try to figure out where Love is at this point in his career, which is worth checking out. He should be familiar with the offense and has decent young weapons with Watson and Doubs, but from the outside, this offense is going to enter the 2023 season as more or less a total unknown.

The fact that the Packers seem more than ready to move on from Rodgers suggests they believe Love is ready, but that's just an assumption from the outside. They could just be over Rodgers' idiosyncrasies and want to see what they have in Love as they look to build for the future -- they'll have to make a decision on his fifth-year option as a former first-round pick before the 2024 season, so this was their last chance to get a true read on Love. They might have as many questions as the rest of us and just want to get some answers to those questions before making a decision on Love's second contract.

This is an offense with plenty of potential for Fantasy if Love is good, of course. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should continue to split playing time at running back, and that's one of the best RB duos in the league. Doubs looks like a solid starter moving forward, while Watson looks like a potential star.

Watson is probably the most important player on this offense for Fantasy purposes in 2023. He showed stunning big-play abilities and was Rodgers' go-to option in the red zone for a stretch that saw him score eight touchdowns in four games. He couldn't sustain that pace, unsurprisingly, but still ended up closing out the season with 523 receiving yards and 61 rushing yards with eight touchdowns over his final eight games. Watson will be a solid value as a high-upside WR3 in Fantasy drafts, but some overzealous manager in your league might decide he's more like a top-24 guy; I'll be out on that price, though he is WR26 for me right now. Doubs is more like a PPR WR3/4, though there's upside beyond that if he can lock in an every-down role after being limited down the stretch coming back from an injury. 

Watson will have to prove he can replicate his late-season production with Love, and it's entirely possible Love is just a disaster and drags the entire offense down. Rodgers wasn't great last season, obviously, but he brought a baseline level of competence to the QB spot, and Love can't guarantee that. He could be a star, continuing the legacy of Rodgers and Brett Favre, but until we see him playing real snaps, it's impossible to know for sure. 

At this point, I'm viewing Watson as more like a high-upside WR3, with Doubs a WR4/5 in PPR formats. Jones remains a fringe RB1, while Dillon is more of an RB3 – not someone I want to trust as a starter, but someone who still has plenty of upside if he carves out a bigger role. Love is probably best left for 2QB leagues, though if you want to take a late-round flier just in case he surprises, I think that's reasonable.