Dak Prescott took a massive step forward in 2019 with the help of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore is still there, but he'll be helping out former Packers coach Mike McCarthy, who spent the offseason telling anyone who would listen he is all-in on forward-thinking, analytically-driven decision making. Fantasy players just want him to get the ball to Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and first-rounder CeeDee Lamb, thanks.
Record: 8-8 (14)
PPG: 27.1 (6)
YPG: 431.5 (1)
Pass YPG: 296.9 (2)
Rush YPG: 134.6 (5)
PAPG: 37.3 (10)
RAPG: 28.1 (8)
2019 Fantasy Finishes
Number to know: 596
The 596 pass attempts for Prescott were 70 more than he'd ever attempted before. If the Cowboys are close to 600 passes again in 2020, then it's not that hard to imagine Elliott, Cooper, Gallup, Lamb, and Jarwin all having Fantasy value. In that scenario, Prescott is likely repeating as a top-three quarterback in all formats and he could challenge for No. 1. But any pass volume regression at all means at least one of the guys above are getting squeezed out of the picture in terms of targets.
98 wide receiver targets, 83 tight end targets
Rankings and Projections
| ||Heath Cummings' projections|
|QB||Dak Prescott||4,510 YD, 28 TD, 7 INT; 263 Rush YD, 4 TD|
|RB||Ezekiel Elliott||1,236 YD, 10 TD; 54 REC, 438 YD, 2 TD|
|RB||Tony Pollard||395 YD, 2 TD; 18 REC, 125 YD, 1 TD|
|WR||Amari Cooper||129 TAR, 82 REC, 1,204 YD, 7 TD|
|WR||Michael Gallup||129 TAR, 71 REC, 1,134 YD, 5 TD|
|WR||CeeDee Lamb||100 TAR, 60 REC, 836 YD, 5 TD|
|TE||Blake Jarwin||70 TAR, 53 REC, 553 YD, 5 TD|
How high is Dak Prescott's upside?
"Under first-year coordinator Kellen Moore, Prescott shattered previous career highs in passing attempts, yardage and touchdowns. Moore is back despite a head coaching change, and the hope is that the vertical passing offense will be, too. The Cowboys added to their arsenal, grabbing Oklahoma standout CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the draft, and Prescott has a ton of weapons at his disposal. Add in his rushing ability, and Prescott looks like the QB3." - Ben Gretch
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
If Witten can be a top 12 tight end in this offense at 37 years old, just imagine what a more athletic Jarwin could do. In Moore's first year as a play caller, the Cowboys dedicated 127 targets to their tight ends. With Witten off to Oakland, Jarwin will be the main beneficiary.
In his first three years in the league, Jarwin has seen 77 targets and turned them into 58 catches for 672 yards and six scores. That would have made him TE8 in PPR last year. While it's possible his efficiency falls off as the feature tight end, it's not as if defenses will pay him any mind at all with Cooper, Gallup, Lamb, and Elliott on the field. Jarwin is available in the last round of most drafts and has a very good shot of finishing as a top-12 tight end if he plays 16 games.
The one guy who could negatively impact Jarwin is Lamb. The Cowboys could legitimately have three star receivers and it's possible Moore adjusts by giving fewer targets to his tight ends. It's also possible by midseason Lamb has overtaken Gallup and/or Cooper. He's that special of a talent.
We're talking about a receiver who dominated targets and production as a 19-year-old sophomore at Oklahoma. He has a great combination of size and speed and he's already shown an ability to move inside or outside, running a variety of routes. Opposing defenses won't be able to double-team Lamb and they may have to place their third-best corner on him, at least at the beginning of the year. That could lead to massive efficiency for the uber-talented rookie.
We have Cooper ranked 36th in our consensus rankings, so we don't actually expect him to bust. But if someone is going to bust in Dallas, he's the most likely. In 2019, he essentially split work with Michael Gallup and disappeared against the Cowboys' most difficult opponents. With Lamb added to the equation, there's a risk of more busts and fewer booms for the up-and-down receiver.
Against the Patriots, Rams, Bills and Saints, Cooper combined for 12-152-0 on 23 targets. In 2020, he'll open with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams but also has the AFC North and the 49ers on the schedule. If teams take Cooper away, Prescott has shown that he's more than willing to take advantage of mismatches in other places. With both Gallup and Lamb, he'll have multiple mismatches to choose from.
If you're drafting Cooper you're hoping opposing defenses decide the Cowboys options are too great to treat anyone like a No.1. You're also accepting that Cooper will likely have four to five weeks where he disappears, because he always does.
AFC East: Bills | Jets | Patriots | Dolphins
NFC East: Giants | Cowboys | Eagles | Redskins
AFC South: Colts | Texans | Jaguars | Titans
NFC South: Panthers | Bucs | Falcons | Saints
AFC North: Ravens | Steelers | Browns | Bengals
NFC North: Packers | Vikings | Bears | Lions
AFC West: Chiefs | Broncos | Raiders | Chargers
NFC West: Seahawks | 49ers | Rams | Cardinals
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.