Let me say this upfront: if you're not worried about your pitching on some level, consider yourself lucky. Between the bigger-than-expected impact of the shift ban and the fact the ball is carrying better than it did for much of last year, the environment hasn't been conducive to quality moundwork. The increased damage on balls in play is being compounded by the increased damage on balls out of play.
To what extent will it continue? Who's to say? The manufacturing process allows for a certain amount of variability, and it's possible the next batch of balls have higher seams and don't carry as well. Regardless, the shift ban is here to stay, and so we may have to adjust our expectations for what a good pitching line looks like.
It's also worth pointing out how quickly our impression of a pitcher can change in an environment that makes everyone vulnerable to a blowout. Kevin Gausman was one of the few aces pulling his weight in his first three turns through the rotation, but are you worried about him now that he allowed seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings to the Astros on Monday, raising his ERA from 1.35 to 3.65? Suffice it to say I can't comment on everyone.
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Here, though, I've selected eight pitchers whose early struggles might raise some concerns. I've implemented a stop light conceit to indicate my own level of concern, green being low, yellow being moderate and red being high.
Why not just say low, moderate and high instead of green, yellow and red? Because I'm not a killjoy, unlike you.
Only one of Alek Manoah's four starts has been anywhere close to decent, and even in that one, he issued four walks. In fact, walks seem to be the biggest issue for the burly right-hander, who's at 7.0 per nine innings this year compared to 2.3 last year. Otherwise, there are no major red flags. Overall, his velocity is down, but it's fluctuated with temperature and was back up in his latest outing, in which his average exit velocity was also a stellar 85.7 mph. Even so, he gave up seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. The word from the Blue Jays is that he's overcompensating right now, undermining his command, and since that's where his struggles are most evident, I'm inclined to believe it.
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As with Manoah, it seems like throwing strikes is Chris Sale's biggest issue. He has the added excuse of throwing less than 50 major-league innings over the past three years combined, so some rust is to be expected. He's also been giving up hard contact, amounting to five home runs in his 12 innings, but poor command could be the main culprit there, too. He's missing bats at a nice rate, which would suggest the stuff is still there, and in fact, there are times when it seems like his own movement catches him by surprise and he has to recalibrate. Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush told The Boston Globe that Sale is "close" and that his command has been much better in side sessions, but I don't know. The upside remains enormous, but it's asking a lot to go right.
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The one thing we can say for sure about Miles Mikolas is that he remains a consistent strike-thrower, having issued just 2.3 BB/9 with an even better strike percentage (67.8) than he had last year (66.6). The problem is that those strikes are getting crushed. So far, his average exit velocity is in the 17th percentile compared to the 65th percentile last year, and he's already allowed the hardest-hit ball of his Cardinals career. Factor in the added vulnerability of being a pitch-to-contact guy in a post-shift league, and he's just getting pummeled right now. If you want to look on the bright side, the input data (velocity, spin) on his individual pitches hasn't changed that much, but the upside probably isn't enough for you to stick it out with him.
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I wasn't the biggest Brady Singer believer to begin with, so there may be some degree of confirmation bias kicking in here. But the exit velocities he's allowing this year are simply untenable. The average through three starts is 98.1 mph, which is not surprisingly dead last among starting pitchers. It was 101.9 mph in his latest outing against the Braves, and even in his first outing, when he allowed one earned run in five innings, it was 94.1 mph. Singer throws only two pitches, neither of which earns particularly impressive marks. He managed to deliver a 3.23 ERA last year in spite of it, but he's not fooling anyone now. Even if that suddenly changes, he's still a pitch-to-contact guy for the Royals, so you're not forfeiting much by moving on.
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To be fair, Aaron Nola has already delivered two quality starts in four chances, but he clearly hasn't delivered on his ace price tag. It's become almost an annual tradition to panic over some unimpressive stretch for Nola, who seems to have a narrow margin for error as a relative soft-tosser with some vulnerability to the long ball, but other than his very unlucky 2021, the final results are always there. His low swinging-strike rate (10.4 percent) strikes me as the biggest cause for concern, but looking at his career splits, that's the norm for him in April. Even last April, when offense was suppressed to a dramatic degree, he had just a 3.90 ERA and an 11 percent swinging-strike rate. Those improved to 3.15 and 13 percent the rest of the way.
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The reigning NL Cy Young winner does already have a complete game shutout to his name, but Sandy Alcantara's other three starts have all been misfires, resulting in a 5.84 ERA. His 13.7 percent swinging-strike would actually represent a career high, though, so his stuff is certainly playing. He's also issued a combined two walks in his past three starts. The velocity has been there, and you can't even blame his early struggles on the shift ban given that his ground-ball rate is curiously low so far. I just think if you're going to worry about Alcantara, you're going to worry about everyone. A couple of shaky starts with a brilliant one mixed in shouldn't be enough to change your priors.
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I just don't have the patience for this ... not again. Blake Snell's past two seasons may have followed the same pattern -- an inefficient first half that basically rendered him unusable and a brilliant second half that salvaged his stat line completely -- but the latter isn't a given just because it's happened two years in a row. And meanwhile, what do you do with the former? The hope going into 2023 was that Snell would build off his strong finish with a more sustainable start to the year, but already, he's looking too erratic to use, throwing just 54 percent of his pitches for strikes while registering more walks than strikeouts in his past two starts. Given the current state of pitching, where everyone is at risk of implosion every day, I'd like to hand off this project to someone else.
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You can certainly see the upside for Grayson Rodriguez, whose fastball, slider and changeup have all generated whiffs at a nice rate, but he just doesn't seem particularly sharp, giving up tons of loud contact and struggling to keep men off base. It's been the same sort of shaky performance that initially cost him the fifth starter job in spring training, and at this point, he seems just as likely to be sent down for more seasoning as to solidify his place on your Fantasy roster.
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