A lot has changed since my first version of breakouts came out in early February. A lot, but also a little.
For instance, you may be surprised to learn that the only player I had to remove for Version 2.0 was Vaughn Grissom, for obvious reasons. It helps that the defining characteristic of a breakout isn't affordability but rather capacity for improvement -- i.e., how good the player could be if he takes that next step. Any change in ADP, then, is almost irrelevant. He may be a value still, but it's more incidental than intrinsic to the definition, as is the case for sleepers.
- Scott's Sleepers 2.0 | Scott's Busts 2.0
Are you bored with these distinctions yet? Me too. Here are the seven new additions to my breakouts list, followed by the 11 holdovers.
The Newcomers
Cristian Javier, SP, Astros
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FantasyPros ADP: 61.0
There's nothing particularly novel about this one, but it nonetheless deserves to be said. Of all the starting pitchers not already regarded as aces in Fantasy, Javier stands the best chance of becoming one. If he's as good as he was last year, it would only take an increase of 30-40 innings to get him there. And I do think he's as good as he was last year.
Javier is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. In fact, among those with at least 100 innings pitched, no pitcher's fly-ball rate was higher. This was a detriment during the juiced ball era, even for pitchers who didn't allow particularly hard contact. Fly balls simply too often turned into home runs. But the juiced ball era, you may have heard, is over now, and that means, rather than home runs on the fly balls, Javier gets a disproportionate number of outs on contact. And he doesn't even allow all that much contact. His 11.7 K/9 rate was sixth-best among pitchers with at least 100 innings.
So before you call Javier's .228 BABIP unsustainable or his league-best .169 batting average against unrepeatable, know that it's not that simple. He's just uniquely untouchable in our current hitting environment. In fact, Statcast put his estimated ERA last year at 2.39, which was better than his actual ERA and bettered only by Spencer Strider.
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Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
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FantasyPros ADP: 74.0
In a recent social media survey conducted by myself, Carroll was the leading vote-getter (tied with fellow breakout Oneil Cruz, actually) for this year's must-have player, so I may be preaching to the choir with this pick. But watching him play again this spring, it's just abundantly obvious to me that his best-case outcome is also a relatively high-probability outcome. And that best-case-slash-high-probability outcome would make him, in fact, a stud.
Does anyone think he'll be lacking in stolen bases with his 100th percentile sprint speed -- in a year when the rulebook has been rewritten to encourage more base-stealing, no less? The only question is if he'll have closer to 30 or 40, perhaps even 50. And the hitting? Above anything else, this spring has served as a reminder of how good Carroll's plate discipline is. He entered play Wednesday with nine walks compared to six strikeouts, reaching base in exactly half of his plate appearances. Meanwhile, he batted .310 over his minor-league career, with superlative line-drive rates at every level. For as fast as he is, hitting might be the thing he does best of all.
So that just leaves power hitting, and I'll admit to having concerns there. Granted, Carroll homered 24 times in just 93 minor-league games last year, but at two of the most hitter-friendly affiliates you'll find. Thing is, I'm not sure how much it matters. As a speedy on-base freak projected to hit leadoff, he may already be a three-category monster. A 20-homer outcome would be icing on the cake. If it's 25, Trea Turner is looking like a reasonable comp.
Corbin isn't being drafted like that -- understandably, because he's a 22-year-old rookie with 104 career at-bats to his name -- but at his price, I'm not sure the worst-case outcome is bad enough for me to pass up the best-case outcome. Best of all, to the degree he falls short in home runs, he'll make up for it with doubles and triples, so he's potentially just as studly in points leagues as in 5x5.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies
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FantasyPros ADP: 180.6
Those who've followed me closely during this Draft Prep season know it's my top priority to grab a stud third baseman with one of my top two picks, not wanting to take any chances at the position with the most precipitous drop-off. But what if it doesn't happen? What's the fallback plan? Primarily, it's to target surging prospect Jordan Walker, who I highlighted in Sleepers 2.0, but with his price rapidly rising, I also need a fallback to my fallback. And more and more, I'm warming up to Bohm to be that guy.
Standing 6-feet-5, the 26-year-old gives the appearance of a big power threat, but it hasn't manifested for a couple reasons: a low launch angle and a penchant for hitting the ball the other way. While detrimental to power, those attributes are beneficial to batting average, which he supplied in useful amounts last year. In fact, Statcast suggests he underperformed in that regard and should have hit closer to .290, putting him in the 98th percentile for xBA.
And that's why I initially presumed nothing much would change for Bohm. He was already good at something, so why mess with it? But then he kicked off spring training with three quick home runs, causing beat writers like Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer to investigate. And what she found is that, while Bohm may not be looking to change -- to pull the ball or hit it in the air more, let's say -- change may nonetheless find him because of the 10-15 pounds of muscle he added this offseason.
"He's added strength, he's started to pull the ball on balls he should pull," manager Rob Thomson said. "He's just starting to get a feel and see the ball a little bit earlier and get the head out. He's probably gained some bat speed because of the strength that he's added."
Pull-side power is the kind that plays best in a post-juiced ball league, and Bohm certainly has the exit velocity (73rrd percentile) to deliver on it. If his added strength leads to him meeting the ball out front, turning on it quicker, more home runs are the likely result, even if not the intention. It may not be a complete transformation, but because of what else he already brings to the table, it doesn't need to be. Twenty homers, along with the corresponding run and RBI increase, would be enough to make Bohm a must-start player.
Nico Hoerner, SS, Cubs
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FantasyPros ADP: 187.4
I should clarify that Hoerner's breakout would be most relevant in a particular kind of league. I'm thinking standard Rotisserie, where batting average and stolen bases are of inflated significance and the shortstop position requires a more thorough exploration due to an extra middle infield slot. Let me simplify: in leagues where Amed Rosario matters, so should Hoerner.
That's who I think he's aspiring to be. A side-by-side comparison suggests they weren't far off last year. Rosario hit .283 compared to Hoerner's .281. Rosario hit 11 homers compared to Hoerner's 10 and stole 18 bases compared to Hoerner's 20. The big difference was in runs and RBI, where Rosario had 86 and 71 compared to Hoerner's 60 and 55.
You can mostly chalk up that disparity to lineup position, though. Rosario batted second most days while Hoerner generally hit no higher than fifth, sometimes as low as ninth. A lower spot in the lineup meant fewer at-bats for Hoerner over the course of the year and worse players batting behind and in front of him -- which would impact run and RBI totals, among other things. It looks like it'll change this year, though. Hoerner has consistently been batting leadoff for the Cubs, and manager David Ross has indeed confirmed he will be the team's leadoff hitter. Consider the run and RBI gap between him and Rosario closed.
Is that enough reason to label Hoerner a breakout? Well, since Rosario is going 40 spots ahead of him on average, I'd like to denote the value in some way, but there's another angle. Rosario and Hoerner both clock in with better than 90th percentile sprint speed. If the new rules designed to promote more base-stealing take them from 20 steals to 30 steals, then shoot, they might both be breakouts.
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Patrick Sandoval, SP, Angels
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FantasyPros ADP: 215.2
Sandoval was also on my breakout list last year, and though he improved his ERA from 3.62 to 2.91, I still consider it a miss on my part. His WHIP rose from 1.21 to 1.34. He turned in only a 6-9 record, a product of him failing to go six innings in more than half of his starts. Most critically, he didn't morph into the superhuman bat-misser I thought he would become, his swinging-strike rate actually dropping from an exceptional 15.2 percent to a still-good 13.3 percent.
Early this spring, though, Angels manager Phil Nevin offered a pretty good explanation for why Sandoval's strikeout numbers (and the effect they'd have on his other numbers) fell short. "His bread-and-butter has always been that changeup," Nevin said, "and he kind of lost the feel for that for a few months during the season and relied on the slider, which turned into just an electric pitch." Indeed, Sandoval ended up throwing his slider more than his changeup last year, in a total reversal from 2021, and that slider turned in a pretty good whiff rate, if not the exceptional number his changeup is capable of.
Could Sandoval combine the improved slider with the former dominance of his changeup? Well, Nevin's early observation this spring was that the changeup is back, and when the chips were down in the World Baseball Classic, Sandoval turned in a lights-out performance for Team Mexico. Between that and the Cactus League, he has allowed just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings this spring, striking out 14 while walking only three. Why not give him another chance, huh? If nothing else, the cost is lower than a year ago.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, Brewers
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FantasyPros ADP: 272.4
I've been hesitant to embrace Mitchell in Fantasy for two reasons. One is that I think Sal Frelick is better, and I'm still a little surprised the Brewers opted to give Mitchell the first look last year. The other is that Mitchell's premium athleticism is undermined by a swing that almost revels in putting the ball on the ground, possibly in a misguided effort to take advantage of his 80-grade speed.
In more recent weeks, I've decided those reasons are bunk. The Brewers are committed to having Mitchell in center field. Frelick never mounted a serious challenge this spring, and Mitchell's defensive upside, because of his speed and athleticism, is so, so high. As for the suboptimal swing, sure, it would be great if he unlocked more power, but he's not a zero as it is. In 472 career minor-league at-bats, he homered 13 times, and in his most recent 82 at-bats between the majors and spring training, he has five home runs. Certainly, 15 is a reasonable expectation if he's healthy and playing every day, and that's to go along with, what, 40 steals? Conservatively, I'll say 30.
Of course, it's all contingent on Mitchell making enough contact to hold onto the job, but he doesn't need to be a batting average standout to be a significant contributor in Fantasy. He's become a must for me late in five-outfielder Rotisserie leagues.
Jake Fraley, OF, Reds
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FantasyPros ADP: 316.0
Fraley came over last spring in the same trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to Seattle, and you may remember he picked up a little bit of sleeper buzz even then. For all the ways T-Mobile Park held him back, he still flashed premium on-base and base-stealing ability with the Mariners. If he could sustain those skills at the majors' most homer-friendly park, who knows what the upside could be?
Of course, playing time wasn't a given, and when he was slow out of the gate, ultimately being shut down on May 1 with a knee injury, the hype was effectively gone. Quietly, though, he more or less lived up to our wildest hopes and dreams after being activated in the second half, batting .295 (51 for 173) with 11 homers, a .377 on-base percentage and a .903 OPS in 53 games. He was a little hesitant to run, possibly because of the knee, but he certainly seems motivated to exploit the new pickoff rules this spring, having swiped four bases (to go along with three homers) so far.
I think we're looking at a sneaky 20-20 man here, one who also provides the sort of on-base skills that should keep him at or near the top of the lineup. He still carries platoon risk as a left-handed hitter, but the rebuilding Reds aren't overrun with alternatives. Based on his usage this spring, they seem to recognize what they have in Fraley.
The Holdovers
Corey Seager, SS, Rangers
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FantasyPros ADP: 48.4
I've been banging the drum for Seager for years, believing he had the capacity for first-round production on the level of Freddie Freeman. And now, heading into his second season with the Rangers, the stars may have finally aligned for him. It may not seem that way given that he just hit a career-worst .245, raising questions about his most reliable contribution, but that's likely to correct itself. The bigger takeaway from his 2022 season is that he finally proved he could be a 30-homer guy if he could just hold it together for a full season.
But wait, what makes me so sure the batting average will correct itself? Well, for starters, he came into last year a career .297 hitter. His .283 xBA, according to Statcast, was still 96th percentile and in line with career norms. There were no substantive changes to his strikeout rate or exit velocities, and he didn't put the ball in the air at a disproportionately high rate either. That's generally all the digging you need to do to determine the likelihood of a bounce-back, but just for good measure, I'll point out that Seager had a .242 BABIP against the shift last year. He entered with a career mark of .336. Maybe teams figured out the perfect way to position their fielders against him, but it's a moot point. The shifts are going away, and most everyone who's looked at last year's data agrees that Seager stands to be the biggest beneficiary.
How does a .300-hitting, 30-homer shortstop sound to you? The only others with that kind of potential are Fernando Tatis, Trea Turner and Bo Bichette, but I'd say Seager is the best bet of all of them to reach both thresholds.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates
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FantasyPros ADP: 79.0
Cruz may never hit .300 like Seager can, but when you add up all the other possible contributions, he's the highest-upside shortstop this side of Fernando Tatis. The problem is that he struck out 35 percent of the time as a rookie, a rate that would have been disqualifying for most of major-league history. One of the things Statcast has revealed to us over the past eight years, though, is that outlier exit velocities are capable of overcoming outlier strikeout rates. Aaron Judge, who coincidentally also stands 6-feet-7, is a perfect encapsulation of this. When he first broke into the league, he would strike out upward of 30 percent of the time, yet he kept his batting average in the .270-.280 range, even hitting 52 home runs as a rookie.
"Yeah, but you can't compare Cruz to the best home run hitter of his generation," you might say, except that in terms of how hard they impact the ball, I absolutely can. Cruz set a record for the hardest-hit ball in the Statcast era at 122.4 mph last year and has three times hit the ball in excess of 118 mph already, something Judge has done 14 times in his career. Turns out they have more in common than just their height.
"OK, but Cruz striking out 35 percent of the time isn't the same as Judge striking out 30 percent of the time." True, and until September of last year, Cruz wasn't having much of an impact in Fantasy. But that's when he cut his strikeout rate to 29.8 percent and went on to hit .288 (34 for 118) with six homers, five steals and an .884 OPS for the month. Pretty much sums it up, doesn't it? Cruz maintained a strikeout rate of 24.6 percent over his minor-league career, so this does seem like a hurdle he can clear. And if he does, a 40-homer, 20-steal season is on the table.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals
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FantasyPros ADP: 94.4
Pasquantino might be the most popular breakout candidate across all of Fantasy Baseball, to the point you could argue he's not even a discount anymore. But if he indeed lives up to the upside so many see in him, then he absolutely is. You realize Matt Olson is a top-40 pick, right? Pasquantino's potential impact is greater than Olson's given that he could hit .300 to go along with the 30 homers and superlative on-base skills.
Let's start with who Pasquantino was in the minors, slashing .292/.382/.569 in what was basically two seasons of work there. When he finally got the call in late June (I say "finally" because he looked like he was ready during a monstrous May), he was a little slow out of the gate. But over his final 40 games with the big club, he hit .362 (51 for 141) with seven home runs and a .996 OPS, walking 21 times compared to just 12 strikeouts. It's that last number that's nothing short of awe-inspiring. In all, Pasquantino struck out just 11.4 percent of the time, which puts him in the same company as Alex Bregman and Keibert Ruiz, the top 3 percent of the league. Except unlike those two, he genuinely clobbers the ball. With an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, his contact is both high quantity and high quality.
Playing in Kansas City may hold him back, both because the rest of the lineup is weak and because it's a terrible place to hit. While he actually had 10 home runs, most venues would have put him at 15 or more, according to Statcast. He would have had 21 in Cincinnati. The 25-year-old actually did his best work at home, though, slugging just .378 on the road, so improvement is possible simply in the normalization of his road numbers.
Hunter Greene, SP, Reds
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FantasyPros ADP: 109.8
I'll admit that the breakout case for a pitcher who throws 102 mph is an easy one to make, but nonetheless, Greene's numbers as a rookie last year (particularly the 4.44 ERA) weren't so good. Were they to become good in his second season, it would be a breakout -- and a fairly significant one.
So let's not reinvent the wheel here. Greene could be great, and you should know about it. He had a better swinging-strike rate than Gerrit Cole and a better K/9 rate as well. Most convincing, though, is that over his final five starts, even with a brief IL stay following the first, he had a 0.62 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 14.0 K/9. What changed is he threw his fastball even harder, averaging 99-101 mph on it after averaging 97-99 previously, which may have helped curtail some of the home run issues he experienced previously. Perhaps more sustainably, he threw 68 percent of his pitches for strikes compared to 62 percent in his first 19 starts.
If Greene's upside was forcing him up draft boards into near-ace territory, you could make a bust case for him instead given his injury history and penchant for hard contact. But seeing as he's the 32nd starting pitcher off the board on average -- only slightly early for my tastes -- a glass-half-full view is warranted.
Sean Murphy, C, Braves
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FantasyPros ADP: 126.6
The breakout case for Murphy could be as simple as him going from Oakland to Atlanta, where he'll enjoy a big park upgrade (his career OPS is .684 in Oakland compared to .820 everywhere else) and an even bigger lineup upgrade. But honestly, I had him penciled in as a breakout even before the trade that sent him to the Braves.
Keep in mind that, while he's 28, last year was only his second with a significant number of at-bats, so it stands to reason that he may have only rounded into form last June. From that point forward, in the final four months of the season, he struck out at a 17.3 percent rate, down from 26.5 percent previously, which led to him batting .273. What makes the lower rate particularly compelling is that he struck out just 17.1 percent of the time during his minor-league career. If he was lacking in anything during those formative years, it was power. The final two-thirds of last season represented a return to the contact skills he had all along.
What could undermine Murphy's breakout potential is the fact the Braves already have an All-Star catcher in Travis d'Arnaud, but let's give them some credit here. They already had a terrific catcher tandem in d'Arnaud and William Contreras but were willing to give up the younger, higher-upside, cost-controlled half (Contreras) to get Murphy. Why? They know the new rules being implemented this year will lead to more activity on the base paths, and Murphy is a big upgrade defensively. They got him to control the run game, which means they'll want him behind the plate as often as possible.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds
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FantasyPros ADP: 128.8
The hype for Greene is robbing Lodolo of his own buzz, but it's honestly a toss-up which one I'd rather have. The left-handed Lodolo had a similar K/9 rate (11.4) and has a more complete arsenal, with the curveball standing out in particular. It's a truly elite pitch with ridiculous horizontal movement that may ultimately count for more than Greene's pure heat.
You could argue Lodolo also rounded into form sooner than Greene, delivering a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 over his final 13 starts (it was five for Greene, remember), and a bigger sample size is always more convincing. Moreover, Lodolo mostly serves up ground balls on contact, a trend that only increased during that 13-start stretch, which makes him less vulnerable than Greene to the horrors of Great American Ball Park. He feels like the more complete pitcher even if he doesn't sizzle as loudly.
If Lodolo has one disadvantage, it's that he threw only 116 innings last year (after throwing just 50 2/3 the year before), so it's possible the Reds continue to baby him in Year 2. Even so, I may actually like him a little more than Greene. He seems like the safer breakout pick, if nothing else.
Dustin May, SP, Dodgers
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FantasyPros ADP: 152.4
To see May pitch is to question what's physically possible for a ball traveling from a pitcher's hand to home plate. The inches of break he gets on his sinker, which peaks at 99 mph, is a complete outlier and a sight to behold. But it's not just a GIF-worthy pitch, all bark and no bite. He's already one of the best ground-ball pitchers in the game and is showing real improvement as a bat-misser, aided by his four-seamer (which he also throws quite hard) and curveball.
His return from Tommy John surgery last year was a mixed bag. He struck out nine over five one-hit innings in his first start back but struggled with walks thereafter. The bite on his pitches was still there, though, which is enough to reminisce about those five starts he made prior to the injury in 2021, which yielded a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 13.7 K/9. Even his career stat line -- a 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 -- is reason to get excited, especially since he pitches for the Dodgers, a team that should maximize his win potential. Control and durability are major hurdles, but the upside is something to shoot for, especially since May is barely going inside the top 50 at starting pitcher.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Brewers
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FantasyPros ADP: 159.0
It's true that Tellez's biggest step forward probably came last year, when he went from 11 home runs to a career-high 35, 14 more than ever before. But I do think it's possible he could get even better, and it's easier to make that case when he's still being disrespected in drafts. Among those who hit 30-plus homers last year, 23 players in all, his ADP is by far the lowest.
Why the skepticism? I honestly can't say. Tellez makes high-quality contact, his average exit velocity registering in the 86th percentile and his max exit velocity in the 98th percentile, according to Statcast, and he actually underperformed his expected slugging percentage. He also doesn't strike out like you'd expect a power hitter to, and that's been true for him from the beginning. I suspect drafters are turned off by his .219 batting average, but his expected batting average was .252. And seeing as he's a left-handed hitter who's slow out of the box, it stands to reason that infield shifts played a part in that disparity. His BABIP against them was .219, which is, in a word, pathetic. Those shifts, though, as you may have heard, are going away this year.
If Tellez's power is legitimate -- and I see no reason to question it -- there's only room to improve in batting average, perhaps by as much as 30-40 points. I'll take that from my starting first baseman, particularly if it allows me to fill the spot as late as Round 15.
Peter Fairbanks, RP, Rays
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FantasyPros ADP: 178.2
I'm not going to claim the Rays have settled on a closer, am I? For Fairbanks to live up to the breakthrough label, I kind of have to. I'll admit it's a precarious position. From Nick Anderson to Andrew Kittredge to Jason Adam, the Rays have left a trail of closer fakeouts in their wake (and oh yeah, Adam remains in the mix even now). But I would argue, perhaps dubiously, that none were as talented as Fairbanks.
The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. In his 24 appearances after returning from a strained lat, there was nobody better. The righty lights up the radar gun at 101, and his 14.3 K/9 rate was the sixth-highest among pitchers with at least 20 innings. The most impressive number of all might have been the three walks. He's been in the Rays bullpen for a few years now, but poor control prevented him from living up to his potential. He seems to have turned the corner in that regard.
But will the Rays make him the closer? They basically did last September, allowing him to record four of the team's final five saves (extra innings excluded). His final seven appearances all came in the ninth inning. Perhaps most telling is that the Rays locked him up with a three-year extension this offseason. He's now cost-controlled, with no fear of his saves total upping his arbitration figure. Maybe it's enough to keep them from going the committee route this year.
Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals
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FantasyPros ADP: 189.6
Let's just get it out of the way: Nootbaar sounds like the impulse buy you make in the IKEA checkout line after spending your lunch hour waffling between the MALM and HEMNES bedroom series instead of, you know, eating lunch. All right, we did it. It's done did.
Now ... what Nootbaar (the person) did down the stretch for the Cardinals last year was genuinely exciting. He homered nine times in his final 45 games, good for a .272 ISO. The reason I focus on the ISO and not the slugging percentage is that he hit a suspiciously low .232 during that time, but it wasn't for a lack of discipline. In fact, his disciplined approach has long been his defining characteristic. In those same 45 games, he drew 26 walks compared to just 28 strikeouts.
No, what was new for Nootbaar was the quality of the contact. After a couple years working with development program Driveline Baseball to speed up his bat by 8 mph, he suddenly began crushing the ball, his average and max exit velocity both measuring right around the 90th percentile. You combine that quality of contact with his already elite plate discipline, and well, we might have a Walmart version of Vinnie Pasquantino on our hands. Nootbaar is available 100 picks later and plays a much weaker position.
Of course, he's also less of a certainty. The Cardinals tended to sit him against left-handers even during his strong finish, and they have a number of high-end alternatives for their outfield, including top prospect Jordan Walker. But the signs are there for Nootbaar if they're willing to see him through.
Reid Detmers, SP, Angels
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FantasyPros ADP: 205.8
Detmers is a classic case of a player who was completely transformed midseason, but too late for the numbers to reflect the improvement. Those players usually don't slip past anyone anymore, not in the Year of Our Lord 2023, but the fact he's going outside the top 200 is pretty good evidence that people simply didn't notice.
So what was his transformation? In 12 starts before being sent to the minors to retool his slider, the 23-year-old left-hander had a 4.66 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 9 percent swinging-strike rate. In 13 starts after returning, his slider having picked up 3 mph, he had a 3.04 ERA, 9.9 K/9 and 13 percent swinging-strike rate. (And word has it his velocity is up even more this spring, as in 2-3 mph on both the fastball and slider.)
It doesn't get much simpler than that. We already knew Detmers had considerable potential. Not only was he drafted 10th overall in 2020, making a quick ascension to the majors, but he also had 15.7 K/9 prior to his initial call-up in 2021. Maybe the Angels' six-man rotation is scaring some would-be drafters away, but if he's the real deal, it won't matter.
