Two NFC East foes face off in our first edition of "Sunday Night Football" in 2023, as the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the New York Giants. Historically, the Cowboys have dominated when playing the Giants in the season opener. In their last nine Week 1 meetings, the Cowboys are 8-1. However, it's fair to wonder if things are about to change.
There's a new energy around the Giants' building after first-year head coach Brian Daboll led New York to a winning record, and helped the franchise win its first playoff game since Super Bowl XLVI. The Giants extended quarterback Daniel Jones, found a way to keep star running back Saquon Barkley and made several other additions on offense. Could the Giants give the Cowboys a run for their money this Sunday night?
Speaking of money, below, we will break down this Sunday night matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 10 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
TV: NBC | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Cowboys -3.5, O/U 45
Injury report
- Giants: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (knee), S Gervarrius Owens (hamstring), CB Cor'Dale Flott (hamstring) DOUBTFUL; TE Darren Waller (hamstring), DL D.J. Davidson (knee), LB Cam Brown (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
- Cowboys: OL Tyler Smith (hamstring), S Donovan Smith (calf) DOUBTFUL; OT Tyron Smith (ankle), DE Sam Williams (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Waller was a late addition to the injury report after being limited with a hamstring injury suffered in Friday's practice. He'll likely be a game-time decision for Sunday. All of the other Giants on the injury report were limited Friday.
Tyler Smith, who was injured Monday, returned to the practice field Friday and took part in a simulated game. Tyron Smith took part in practice Friday. His game status will be determined by Saturday's walkthrough.
Line movement
This line opened at DAL -2.5 on May 11. It rose to DAL -3.5 on June 21.
The pick: Giants +3.5. The Waller injury does frighten me, because I believe he could play a major role in New York's offense in this matchup. However, keep in mind that home underdogs in divisional matchups have an absurd ATS record. Since the start of 2012, home underdogs in divisional matchups in Week 1 are 15-2-1 ATS and 10-6-2 SU! I made the Giants +3.5 a best bet earlier this week, so I can't back down now. Here's what I said:
"Eventual NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll stepped into the ring and immediately went 13-4 ATS in 2022 -- which was the best mark in the NFL. In fact, it was the best ATS record since at least 1970! Now, you're going to give them to me as a prime-time home dog with the hook?
"I'm expecting the Giants to be better in 2023. They added Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt at wideout, and then Darren Waller at tight end. Look for Daniel Jones to go to Waller early and often on offense, and for defensive coordinator Wink Martindale to make Dak Prescott as uncomfortable as possible on defense. Give me the home dog."
Over/Under 45
We haven't seen much movement with the total. It opened at 45.5 on May 11, but rose to 46.5 the next day. It fell back to 45.5 on Thursday, and then to 45 on Friday.
The pick: Over 45. I feel like Week 1 totals are a crap shoot, especially when we are talking about two teams that made the playoffs last year. Could this be a rock fight? Sure. But this is a number that is right around average compared to the other totals on the board this week. I'm leaning Over since the Over has hit in seven out of the last nine meetings between these two teams. It's fun to root for points.
Dak Prescott props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Passing yards: 241.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 32.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
Passing completions: 21.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
Longest passing completion: 35.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Rushing yards: 13.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
I don't have a great read on Prescott's passing yards number, but I do like the Under on his passing attempts. Prescott cleared this number just five times in 12 games last year, and Mike McCarthy wants to "run the damn ball so I can rest my defense." If you're a Cowboys fan, I think it could be smart just to sit back and see how Prescott operates in this system that should look a bit different. I'm leaning to the Under on his longest passing completion, but Over on his rushing yards number. I will definitely take a flier on Dak to throw a pick. In his one game vs. New York last year, Prescott threw two interceptions.
Daniel Jones props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +172, Under -244)
Passing yards: 204.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Longest passing completion: 33.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100, Under -137)
Rushing yards: 35.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
You'll never see me bet a -244 prop, so why not take a flier on "Danny Dimes" to throw two touchdowns at +172? Jones' 204.5 passing yards line looks low, but he only crossed this number four times last year(!) With the new additions on offense, however, I'll take the Over. I think I will also bet the over on passing completions as well. I'll stay away from Jones' interception number, as he only threw picks in four games last year, but if you want to take a flier on that at plus money, I won't stop you.
Props to consider
Saquon Barkley receiving yards: Over 22.5 (-117). Barkley hit this number in just six of 16 games last year, but I'm going to take it. A big gain off a screen pass could guarantee we hit this.
Brandin Cooks receiving yards: Over 44.5 (-113). Cooks has been productive everywhere he's been, so I have him crossing this number on Sunday night. In Cooks' nine NFL seasons, he has averaged fewer than 53.8 yards per game just once (41.6 yards per game in 2019 with the Los Angeles Rams).
Saquon Barkley anytime TD (+101)
