It's a question quietly being asked throughout NFL locker rooms and front offices: Is this the most vulnerable the Patriots have been during the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era?
Since that epoch began in 2001, the Patriots have won 10 division titles. They have also made five Super Bowl appearances winning three of them. Is that dominance about to end?
After watching players from the Patriots depart via free agency, get surgeries or get arraigned, it's up for debate.
"I think they are but you have to prove it, you can’t just talk about it," said Dolphins linebacker Dannell Ellerbe.
Just to be clear -- Ellerbe wasn’t talking smack. He was stating a belief that is actually quite prevalent throughout football. Has the draining of offensive talent, the injury to Rob Gronkowski and the allegations of homicide against Aaron Hernandez weakened the once-unbreakable filament that is the resolve of the Patriots?
"I was brought here to help knock them off," said Ellerbe. "That doesn’t mean we will, but we feel like we can. Like I said, we just have to prove it. You have to actually go do it."
When asked if losing Hernandez -- it's possible the tight end will spend the rest of his life in a jail cell -- will hurt New England, Ellerbe explained: "Losing a starter always hurts and losing a starter as good as he was will really hurt."
"I don’t think you can say the Patriots are the same as before after what happened to Hernandez," Ellerbe said.
It's a fair statement. Not only have the Patriots lost an uber-talented player, the circumstances of that loss could have lasting effects. Other franchises have always viewed the Patriots as arrogant and that arrogance, in many ways, has fueled New England. It led to the Patriots rarely being shaken even after losing Super Bowls or being embarrassed by Spygate.
The criminal charges against Hernandez potentially destroys some of that confidence, and now is the perfect time to punch the Patriots hard in the gut.
Ellerbe is perfect to discuss beating the Patriots because he joined the Dolphins from the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are one of only a handful of teams in the NFL that in recent years consistently played New England tough. The Ravens beat the Patriots in the conference title game last year in Foxborough.
In that game Ellerbe had an interception off a tipped pass with less than seven minutes left. It was a big play at a huge moment. "Our mentality whenever we played them was to keep fighting," Ellerbe said. "They were so good offensively that they would score and try to get up big on you. We felt like if we just kept fighting, eventually we could get inside their heads."
Only one team really has the chance to end the Patriots’ division run and that’s Miami. The Jets can’t do it because Mark Sanchez is the quarterback and Buffalo is, well, Buffalo.
The Dolphins, almost overnight, got much younger and more athletic with Ellerbe and others. They spent more than $100 million in guaranteed contracts -- all with the intention of defeating New England.
But can it actually happen? Underestimate Belichick and Brady at your own peril, but still, the Patriots have never been this vulnerable under Belichick. Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are the only players returning to the team that caught passes last year. Gone are the players responsible for 77 percent of the team’s total targets from 2012.
All of this is only a theory, and the huge gap in that theory is Brady. He didn’t become one of the greatest pass throwers of all time by becoming mentally weak in the face of tough circumstances. So we are a long way from the Patriots actually showing they are ready to pass the division crown to Miami or any other team.
The Dolphins are in the best position to try. This offseason they've spent a great deal of money on good free agents like Ellerbe, drafted well, and may finally have a post-Dan Marino franchise quarterback.
Knocking the Patriots from that dominant perch?
It could finally happen. Could.
