Vikings Fantasy Football Preview: It's all about Dalvin Cook (and a little about Adam Thielen)

The Vikings went all in on a run-first approach in 2019, and they doubled down on that approach by sending Stefon Diggs off to the Bills this offseason. Dalvin Cook is going to be an elite Fantasy option as long as he's on the field, and Alexander Mattison figures to be one whenever Cook isn't. If all goes according to plan, it makes the passing game less inspiring, but a bounce-back season from Adam Thielen is certainly possible now that Diggs is out of the picture.

"Just assessing where Kirk was last year and putting him in a system that pretty much emphasizes what he does well, with the play-action and establishing a running game, and his accuracy is second-to-none in this league, I believe, when he has time in the pocket — not only short and intermediate but also what he throws down the field. ... [Y]ou're seeing [good] things... I think it's even going to go farther next year, being in the same system."
GM Rick Spielman

2019 Review

Record: 10-6 (8th in NFL)
PPG: 25.4 (8)
YPG: 353.5 (16)
Pass YPG: 220.2 (23)
Rush YPG: 133.3 (6)
PAPG: 29.1 (30)
RAPG: 29.8 (4)

2019 Fantasy finishes

QB: Kirk Cousins QB14
RB: Dalvin Cook RB6; Alexander Mattison RB61
WR: Stefon Diggs* WR24; Adam Thielen WR64
TE: Kyle Rudolph TE14; Irv Smith TE32
* No longer on the team

Number to know: 8

Eight defensive players from 2019 — four starters and four role players — are no longer on the Vikings. A couple have been replaced by veteran free agents, but otherwise the team will turn to 2020 rookies and backups from 2019. That could be problematic for a Minnesota defense that's ranked in the top 10 in sacks five of the past six seasons and top 10 in pass yards allowed in three of the past four seasons.

2020 Offseason

Draft Picks

1. (22) Justin Jefferson, WR
1. (31) Jeff Gladney, CB
2. (58) Ezra Cleveland, OT
3. (89) Cameron Dantzler, CB
4. (117) D.J. Wonnum, DE
4. (130) James Lynch, DT
4. (132) Troy Dye, LB
5. (169) Harrison Hand, CB
5. (176) K.J. Osborn, WR
6. (203) Blake Brandel, OT
6. (205) Josh Metellus, S
7. (225) Kenny Willekes, DE
7. (244) Nate Stanley, QB
7. (249) Brian Cole II, S
7. (253) Kyle Hinton, G

Additions

WR Tajae Sharpe; DL Michael Pierce and Eddie Yarbrough

Key Departures

WR Stefon Diggs; OG Josh Kline; DL Linval Joseph, Stephen Weatherly and Everson Griffen; CB Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackenzie Alexander; DB Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse

Available Opportunity

0 carries, 0 RB targets, 106 WR targets, 0 TE targets

Rankings and Projections

Player	Jamey Eisenberg	Dave Richard	Heath Cummings
Kirk Cousins	QB25	QB26	QB25
Dalvin Cook	RB5	RB5	RB5
Alexander Mattison	RB53	RB38	RB55
Adam Thielen	WR9	WR13	WR13
Justin Jefferson	WR53	WR52	WR60
Kyle Rudolph	TE25	TE32	TE24
Irv Smith	TE26	TE25	TE26
Vikings DST	DST15	DST17	DST11

	Heath Cummings' projections
QB	Kirk Cousins	3,869 YD, 26 TD, 9 INT; 82 Rush YD, 2 TD
RB	Dalvin Cook	1,228 YD, 10 TD; 65 REC, 573 YD, 2 TD
RB	Alexander Mattison	539 YD, 1 TD; 11 REC, 94 YD, 1 TD
WR	Adam Thielen	132 TAR, 86 REC, 1,118 YD, 7 TD
WR	Justin Jefferson	81 TAR, 51 REC, 693 YD, 4 TD
TE	Kyle Rudolph	56 TAR, 42 REC, 403 YD, 5 TD
TE	Irv Smith	51 TAR, 39 REC, 348 YD, 3 TD

Biggest Question

How will first-round pick Justin Jefferson and Thielen coexist?

"Jefferson had an underrated sophomore campaign playing on the outside, but his raw stats really took off when he moved to the slot in LSU's historic 2019 season. Thielen does most of his damage in the slot as well, and Minnesota also features their inline tight ends in the passing game. They need an outside presence, and while both receivers can move around and Minnesota has flexibility, Cousins typically prefers his interior targets, meaning whoever winds up outside more will likely sacrifice some targets." - Ben Gretch

One sleeper, one bounce-back, and one bust

Sleeper

Irv Smith TE

KC Kansas City • #81
Age: 25 • Experience: 6 yrs.

2019 Stats
REC 36	TAR 47	REYDS 311	TD 2	FPTS/G 4.9

The Vikings used two tight ends more than 30 other teams last season (Philadelphia was first). Smith was involved plenty in the pass game, blocking on just 6.2% of pass snaps (Rudolph was at 16.7%) and lining up in the slot or out wide on 37% of his total offensive snaps. Minnesota needs all the help it can get with Diggs no longer on the squad, and Smith offers an aggressive size/speed mismatch for Cousins to lean on. 13% of his total targets were on deep throws, and he caught all three on-target tosses he received. It's a hint of how he might further contribute in 2020. Available with a late-round pick in every single draft, Smith's an easy low-risk gamble to take on Draft Day.

Bounce-back

Adam Thielen WR

CAR Carolina • #19
Age: 33 • Experience: 11 year

2019 Stats
REC 30	TAR 48	REYDS 418	TD 7	FPTS/G 11.3

Trading Diggs is the best thing that could have happened to Thielen. For at least one more year, he figures to be Cousins' most trusted target. The issue isn't where he'll line up — expect him to be everywhere — the issues are whether or not the run game will overshadow the pass game again if the defense will be worse in 2020. If, for whatever reason, the Vikings can't be as effective on the ground, and if the defense, which lost several starters and contributors, isn't up to snuff, the door's open for Thielen to see as many as 150 targets. That's where he was right around in 2017 and 2018, and he was great. Draft him as a No. 2 receiver (Round 3 is fine, Round 4 is amazing) with upside to finish as a top-10 guy.

Bust*

Dalvin Cook RB

BAL Baltimore • #33
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.

2019 Stats
RUYDS 1135	REC 53	REYDS 519	TD 13	FPTS/G 20.8

There's an asterisk here.

IF Cook's holdout is real and IF he misses training camp, I'll be nervous to draft him with a top-20 pick. We know Cook is dangerous when he's on the field, but if he's not going through the trials of training camp then, like past running back holdouts, his body could be unprepared when he does come back. That could lead to injury, and for a guy like Cook who has never played a 16-game season, that's really concerning. And what if his holdout extends into the season like Melvin Gordon's did? He'd still need a couple of weeks to round into game shape and he'd still be an injury risk upon his return. The new CBA makes holdouts kind of pointless for players, so here's hoping Cook either gets a deal he's happy with or shows up to training camp regardless. But we'll never know what he's thinking, which is why he's a challenging player to draft the longer he stays away from the team.