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USATSI

Whose stock is on the rise in Fantasy Baseball drafts of late? I took a look at NFBC Average Draft Position data from February and compared it to January's data to find the 10 players whose price has risen the most (inside of the top 300 in ADP, at least, because there's a lot of guys jumping from 500 to 400 who still don't really matter). Here are the 10 biggest risers, along with a quick explanation on why they might be rising, and whether I'm buying them at their new cost. From Byron Buxton's return to injury and fascinating details surrounding hot-shot pitchers such as Shota Imanaga and Nestor Cortes, here's a comprehensive breakdown of current risers you may want to consider in your next draft.

Before we get to the biggest ADP risers here's a sampling of what you might have missed from us lately:

Byron Buxton, OF, Twins -- Feb ADP: 221.88  (+37.9)

Why he's rising: After being limited to DH duties last season exclusively due to knee issues, Buxton is playing center field already in the spring and talking about stealing 30 bases. Buxton may not be a good bet to stay healthy, but unlike this time last year  (when he was a top-100 pick, mind you), Buxton actually is healthy right now. 

Buy the rise? Absolutely. What, are you new here? I'm always buying Buxton. 

Robert Stephenson, RP, Angels -- Feb ADP: 252.8  (+33.76)

Why he's rising: Stephenson signed with the Angels in late January, and his price is still rising to reflect that. Stephenson isn't expecting to be the Angels' closer, but given how shaky Carlos Estevez often is in the ninth, nobody really thinks he's got much job security. 

Buy the rise? Stephenson had a 38.3% strikeout rate and 3.10 ERA last season. If he was named the closer, he'd be a top-150 pick. Buy. 

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees -- Feb ADP: 275.52  (+24.23)

Why he's rising: He's in the best shape of his life, I guess? I don't really know, to be honest. Stanton is currently healthy, but unlike Buxton, that wasn't really a question entering spring. 

Buy the rise? Stanton's current price is fine, but I just don't get why there's forward momentum here. He's a perfectly reasonable late-round dice roll. 

Yu Darvish, SP, Padres -- Feb ADP: 190.8  (+21.41)

Why he's rising: This is another one where the player's price seems to be rising because he got to spring and reminded us that he's currently healthy. I don't think we've really learned much to justify his price rising, but for what it's worth, Darvish did look strong in his spring debut Wednesday, striking out three in two innings. He's done nothing to lower his value. 

Buy the rise? Darvish has risen to where I had him ranked coming into the spring, so I'm still buying. But a healthy, effective spring won't necessarily answer all of the questions about the 37-year-old after his season ended with elbow issues. 

Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles -- Feb ADP: 179.66  (+20.24)

Why he's rising: He's got a chance at an Opening Day roster spot. I'm not sure he's better than a coin flip at this point to break camp, but while Holliday played just 54 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, he hit .313 with a reasonable 20% strikeout rate as a 19-year-old, so I'm not sure he has much left to prove. And the Orioles did pretty much leave second base wide open for him. They're practically begging him to take the job. 

Buy the rise? Holliday might be a top-100 pick if and when he's announced as a major-leaguer. This might be a discount. 

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox -- Feb ADP: 150.53  (+19.78)

Why he's rising: Duran looks like the leading candidate to be the Red Sox's leadoff hitter, and here's what his 150-game pace looked like in 36 games as a leadoff hitter last season: 104 runs, 21 homers, 71 RBI, and 50 steals. I don't think he'll actually be as good as Corbin Carroll, but there's plenty of upside here. 

Buy the rise? I took Duran with the 123rd overall pick in my Tout Wars draft, so yeah, I'm cool with it. 

Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs -- Feb ADP: 190.12  (+18.69)

Why he's rising: We learned that Imanaga was signing with the Cubs on Jan. 11, so it could be that his apparent rise is mostly about his price settling in. 

Buy the rise? As I said last week, I love making the bet on Imanaga inside the top 200, even if there are some red flags in his profile. There's Freddy Peralta-esque upside here. 

Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians -- Feb ADP: 155.42  (+18.38)

Why he's rising: He went to Jared – err, DriveLine. Bieber spent the offseason working out with the data-driven baseball performance lab, and saw a significant jump in velocity in their training sessions. 

Buy the rise? I'm out at this price, honestly. I like Bieber more after learning about this, but I need to see it in action in games. And, even if he's throwing 93-94 this spring, it won't really answer the significant questions about his ability to hold up over a full season after going on the IL with a forearm strain last season  (not to mention the shoulder strain he suffered in 2021). 

Nestor Cortes, SP, Yankees -- Feb ADP: 247.51  (+18.38)

Why he's rising: Cortes has been all systems go in Spring Training and his velocity was up 0.6 mph on his fastball in his spring debut. He got hit around a bit, but the increased velocity is the more important thing, I think. 

Buy the rise? I've had Cortes ranked about 20 spots higher than his February ADP all along, so yes, I'm definitely buying. 

Jackson Chourio, OF Brewers -- Feb ADP: 122.81  (+18.33)

Why he's rising: Chourio signed his record-breaking pre-debut contract back in December, so I don't actually know why he's rising. We've been expecting him to be the Brewers' Opening Day center fielder since he put pen to paper. 

Buy the rise? Chourio has played two spring games with three singles, so I'm not sure there's much justification for his rise. But I still have him ranked ahead of this ADP, so he's a fine pick here.