The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals will get Week 7 in the NFL started when these NFC clubs go head-to-head during Thursday Night Football.
Both of these teams are 2-4 on the season and are coming off losses in Week 6. The Saints continue to be bit by the injury bug and will not have several key starters available for this game including Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, and Andrus Peat. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost Hollywood Brown for the foreseeable future due to injury, but are welcoming the return of DeAndre Hopkins from his suspension. The team also acquired Robbie Anderson in a trade with the Panthers earlier this week.
Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Oct. 20 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Cardinals -2, O/U 44
Line movement
This line jockeyed a little bit but ultimately hasn't seen drastic movement. It opened at Cardinals -2 way back in the spring and the lookahead bumped it up a half-point to Cardinals -2.5. Coming out of Sunday's Week 6 action, it dipped down to Cardinals -1.5 before rising back up to its original number with Arizona laying two points.
The pick: Cardinals -2. If you're looking for any trends with these quarterbacks to help you make your decision of who to back in this game, good luck. Kyler Murray nor Andy Dalton play well at all in primetime. Dalton -- who is projected to start -- is 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS in his career in prime time, which is the worst prime-time record since 2000 among eligible quarterbacks. As for Murray, he's 0-4 SU and ATS over his last four primetime games. So, it's hard to glean anything from their performance. Instead, we'll just look at the personnel. Murray will get one of the top receivers in the NFL, DeAndre Hopkins, back this week and has Robbie Anderson as a new pass-catching weapon in the fold as well. Meanwhile, Dalton won't have a chunk of his pass catchers, leaving him a bit undermanned. I also think the absence of Lattimore for New Orleans is going to be a huge factor and possibly set up a big return for Hopkins.
Key trend: Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Over/Under total
The opening number for this total when it debuted in the spring was 47. It fell to 46 on the lookahead and continued to sink throughout the week and now sits at 44 on the eve of this head-to-head.
The pick: Under 44. The total is probably a stay-away for me, but I'll be rooting for the Over. That said, we've been subjected to a historically low-scoring Thursday night slate this season. Thursday Night Football games are combining for 36.7 points per game this season, which is the lowest margin since Thursday Night Football's inaugural season in 2006 (33.8). I don't see that changing here. The Under is 4-1-1 for the Cardinals this season and is 12-3-1 in New Orleans' last 16 Thursday games.
Key trend: Under is 5-0 in Arizona's last five games vs. the NFC.
Kyler Murray props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
- Passing yards: 244.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
- Rushing yards: 32.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
- Passing attempts: 35.5 (Over +106, Under -145)
- Longest pass completion: 35.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
- Completions: 23.5 (Over -127, Under -108)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
I like Murray to go over his passing yards prop at 244.5. Not only will he be getting Hopkins back for this game, but he also has a plush matchup, particularly with Lattimore sidelined for New Orleans. He'll be facing a Saints secondary that ranks 21st in the NFL in DVOA against the pass and is allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt this season. He also should be working in a relatively clean pocket. The Cardinals O-line is allowing pressure at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL this season and the Saints are getting pressure at the worst rate in the league. With that in mind, I'll also take Murray throwing for multiple touchdowns as well.
Andy Dalton props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +143, Under -199)
- Passing yards: 217.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
- Longest pass completion: 35.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
Dalton's prop market has shrunk a bit because it's still up in the air as to who'll start between him and Jameis Winston. That said, folks on the beat seem to think that Dalton will ultimately be the starter. So, proceed with caution here on any Dalton prop until there is official word on whether or not he'll start. That said, I am intrigued by the Over on his passing yards prop at 217.5. He's failed to top 200 yards passing his previous two starts, but I imagine the Saints will be trailing in this game, which will force Dalton into a more pass-heavy game script. He'll also have rookie standout Chris Olave back at receiver, which is a plus. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 24th in the NFL in DVOA against the pass.
Player props to consider
Chris Olave total receptions: Over 4.5 (+100). Olave is back in the rotation after missing a game with a concussion. He'll be the top option in the passing game for New Orleans and is facing a Cardinals defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes (sixth-highest in the NFL). Olave is averaging 8.4 targets per game this season. With a heavy target share expected and facing a soft secondary, this ticket at plus money is a fun one to hold going into Thursday.
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: Over 59.5 (-115). I think Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury will design some plays that force-feed Hopkins the ball early to get his feet wet as he comes back from suspension. Without Lattimore blanketing him in the secondary, Hopkins -- who I'd assume is chomping at the bit to get back on the field -- should be able to run wild. Even in what was considered a down year for him last year, Hopkins averaged 57.2 receiving yards per game.
