The 2024 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs and 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas will hope to make history as the oldest trainer ever to win the Kentucky Derby. Lukas is already a four-time Kentucky Derby winner and will saddle a horse with an impressive pedigree for Kentucky Derby 150. Just Steel is a son of Justify, who won the 2018 Triple Crown and has quickly become one of the most sought-after studs in America. Just Steel is coming off a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby and is the most experienced horse in the field with 11 starts. He's priced at 20-1 in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds.
Fierceness is the 5-2 Kentucky Derby 2024 favorite after wins at the Florida Derby and Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Sired by City of Light out of the Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella, Fierceness has unquestionable speed that he put on full display in a romp at the Florida Derby. He went straight to the front and went wire-to-wire to win by a staggering 13.5 lengths.
However, inconsistency has been an issue throughout his career. After breaking his maiden at Saratoga last August, he ran seventh at the Champagne Stakes. A month later, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in impressive fashion but he followed that up with a third-place finish as the 1-5 favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes to kick off his three-year-old season. He's never won two races in a row and the frontrunner could have a tough trip coming from the outside on Saturday. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After notching runners-up in his first two career starts, Dornoch went on a three-race winning streak that included a pair of Grade 2 victories. He won the Remsen Stakes on a muddy track as a juvenile before taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes on a fast track in his first start as a 3-year-old. He stumbled in his final start, finishing fourth, but his trainer utilized a different tactic for that race, one that he will seemingly abort for the Kentucky Derby 150.
That trainer, Danny Gargan, got his feet wet at the Kentucky Derby in 2019 with a gelding that finished 14th. However, jockey Luis Saez has more experience since he has already won the Belmont Stakes and crossed the 2019 Kentucky Derby finish line first with Maximum Security before the horse was disqualified. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
