The 2024 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday from Churchill Downs. The last five editions of the Kentucky Derby haven't been won by the favorite, so bettors could decide which under-the-radar 2024 Kentucky Derby horses they should back with 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. Stronghold could be an appealing option and checks many boxes. He is a Grade 1 winner, has finished first or second in all six of his starts, and was sired by Hall of Famer Ghostzapper, who won nine of 11 career races. Stronghold also presents value relative to his 2024 Kentucky Derby odds since just two horses accumulated more points in prep races, yet his 20-1 odds are only tied for sixth-best in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field.
The two colts who racked up more points are the two biggest 2024 Kentucky Derby favorites, Fierceness (5-2) and Sierra Leone (3-1). What longshots could be worth targeting with your 2024 Kentucky Derby bet strategy? The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. The horse is coming off a Florida Derby victory in his last start, but he's been up and down throughout his career. He's alternated wins and losses through five career starts, with a third-place finish in his penultimate start at Gulfstream Park. Fierceness lost to a horse, Hades, that isn't even in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field, while the runner-up in Domestic Product is a huge 30-1 long shot for Saturday.
Fierceness has the most experienced trainer in the Kentucky Derby 2024, Todd Pletcher, but his 64 previous starters have only manifested into two victories. That's a 3.1% win rate, and Pletcher hasn't come close to winning over the last five years. None of his 12 starters since 2019 has hit the board, while they have an average finish of 12.5. Add in that the ownership group led by Mike Repole has seen all seven of its previous starters fail to even finish in the money, and Fierceness is one to fade at his short odds. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The horse has displayed the ability to win on several tracks and with several track conditions. He has stakes victories at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, in addition to another win at Keeneland. He has also won on fast tracks and muddy tracks, the latter being noteworthy when he won the Remsen Stakes in December. Dornoch overtook Sierra Leone down the stretch for that win, beating the second-favorite for the Kentucky Derby by a nose.
"Trainer Danny Gargan changed up his race tactics and tried to rate him in the Blue Grass and he was fourth," Demling told SportsLine. "He'll use his speed this time in the No. 1 post position. He's a live long shot." See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
