There was no shortage of starting running backs available on the free agent market, so it shouldn't be a surprise that the position gave us our first Fantasy Football relevant news after the start of the legal tampering period. That news is that D'Andre Swift is heading to the Chicago Bears on a three-year deal. If you're not sure exactly how to feel about this, that makes sense, it's a situation with a lot of moving parts. First, let's talk about the player.
Swift finished 2023 as RB24, averaging 12.46 PPR Fantasy points per game. He saw a career-high 229 rush attempts in 16 games, but a career-low 49 targets, and he averaged a career-worst 4.4 yards per target. The step back in the passing game may have had something to do with playing next to Jalen Hurts, who has not favored pass-catching backs in his career. Hurts also scored three times as many touchdowns on the ground as Swift last year.
We don't know for sure who Swift's quarterback will be in 2024, but the expectations are that the Bears will jettison Justin Fields in favor of Caleb Williams, who should be their No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Rookie quarterbacks have a spotty record when targeting their running backs and Williams' playmaking ability in the pocket may not favor targets for Swift. Swift's new offensive coordinator in Seattle called plays for three years in Seattle. In those three seasons, Seattle averaged a meager 14.49% running back target rate. In other words, Swift's targets may not bounce back much.
Where Swift has excelled has been in rushing efficiency. He has averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career and he has only been below that mark once in his NFL career. Of course, it's unlikely that Chicago's run blocking will be as good as Swift played behind in Detroit or Philadelphia.
The good news for Swift is in Dynasty. He just turned 25 years old and he now has a better chance than the average running back of starting Week 1 of the 2025 season. That positions Swift as a top-20 Dynasty back with the potential to rise into the top 15 if Williams hits the ground running and the Bears offense is better than expected early in 2024. For redraft, I am slightly more bearish, with Swift ranking as a low-end No. 2 running back worth a pick in Round 4 or later. My early projections for Swift have him at RB22 in 2024 with 1,205 total yards, 47 catches and 7.4 total touchdowns.
The big losers of this move are Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. They will now be battling for the RB2 job this summer. The winner is worth a pick in Round 10, while the loser will start the Fantasy season on the waiver wire. Both fell more than 10 spots in my Dynasty running back rankings on this news, with Herbert falling outside of my top 45 running backs. He'll likely be out of the top 50 once the NFL draft happens. Now we wait to see who will replace Swift in Philadelphia. Could it be Saquon Barkley?
