The New York Jets have focused much of their attention this offseason -- Brandon Marshall trade notwithstanding -- on upgrading their defense. The Jets finished last season 21st in defensive DVOA, a far cry from the fearsome defenses that marked the early years of Rex Ryan's tenure as the team's head coach. The 21st place finish was the culmination of a three-year downward trend that saw New York fall from second, to ninth, to 12th and finally to the bottom third of the league. The steep drop was precipitated by the exodus of former secondary stalwarts like Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie over the last few years, and it resulted in the firing of Rex Ryan at season's end.
After hiring former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles as head coach, new general manager Mike Maccagnan -- himself recently hired to take over for the departed John Idzik -- set about rebuilding the defensive backfield with a series of signings. The Jets handed out $67.5 million in guaranteed money to four secondary players -- Revis, Cromartie, Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist -- in order to provide Bowles with the type of talent needed to run his complex and diverse defensive system, which often relies on defensive backs to play man coverage behind heavy doses of blitzing.
Those moves, when you consider the presence of both Bowles and a very stout defensive line, should help elevate New York's defense back into the top half of the league. And while the acquisition of Marshall, along with the signing of former Seahawks guard James Carpenter, should elevate the offense as well, none of it will matter if they don't get better quarterback play.
Geno Smith and Michael Vick combined to give the Jets one of the worst quarterback groups in the league last season. Together, they finished last in the NFL in passing yards, 29th in completion percentage and passer rating, 30th in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns and 27th in passing DVOA. It was an outright disaster.
Smith is back this season, ostensibly in a competition for the starting job with recently acquired Ryan Fitzpatrick. There was a report in early March that Fitzpatrick is favored to start, and then another later in the month that Smith was in the lead. Needless to say, this all seemed very up in the air, even before Bowles came out on Thursday and said the team hopes to add another quarterback in the draft.
"We want competition at every position," Bowles said, via ESPN. "Ryan is going to compete, as well as Geno is going to compete, and we hope to add somebody else to compete with them, along with [Matt] Simms."
With the sixth pick in the draft, the Jets are in decent position to land one of the top two quarterback prospects. They've been connected to Marcus Mariota for weeks, and with Bucs coach Lovie Smith all but confirming that the team will select Jameis Winston at No. 1, Mariota would presumably be the guy the Jets would be looking at if they were to select a quarterback in the first round.
Maccagnan added some intrigue to that line of thinking when he said, "Sitting at six is a very good spot to be in. It does allow us the potential to move up in the draft because we're not far from the first pick." With speculation that both the Titans and Washington could be interested in the Oregon quarterback; it might take a trade-up into the second or third slot to land him.
However, Maccagnan wasn't done speaking about the Jets' pick. "We do think there will be good players available at six," he said. "The other thing at six, you might have someone slide through there to that pick to where other teams might want to trade up for that pick. So we're kind of in a nice spot." The dichotomy represented by those two statements is why there is more than one way to look at the QB-related comments made by the Jets brass on Thursday.
The first, most literal way to read the statements is that the Jets are targeting Mariota in the draft, and that they're willing to move up to go get him. This makes a lot of sense. Again, New York spent a bunch of money upgrading their defense, added another pass-catcher to a group that already included Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley and Jace Amaro, solidified a weak spot on the offensive line to help clear running lanes for Chris Ivory and protect whoever winds up taking the snaps, and seems to be just a competent quarterback away from having their best offense in some time. Mariota is widely considered one of the two best quarterback prospects in the draft (if not the best), and though he's not considered quite as "pro ready" in some circles as Winston, the bar to clear in order to be better than what could reasonably be expected of Smith or Fitzpatrick is not all that high. He'd step in and likely immediately be the most talented quarterback on the roster, and it's inarguable that he'd have the highest ceiling.
The second school of thought: the Jets are indeed looking to add a quarterback, but one who is more likely to have to compete with Smith and Fitzpatrick for the starting job, and thus might be selected in the second or third round. That is, after all, what Bowles said. "Ryan is going to compete, as well as Geno is going to compete, and we hope to add somebody else to compete with them, along with [Matt] Simms." That could point to someone like Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley or Garrett Grayson, each of whom expected to be among the Day 2 quarterbacks off the board. This scenario seems much less likely than the first one, though. If you're looking for a rookie QB and you're near the top of the draft, why not just get Mariota if you're in range, especially considering the success rate of hitting on mid-round QB prospects?
A third reading of these statements is that the Jets are trying to entice another team to trade up ahead of them into Tennessee, Jacksonville or Washington's spot in hopes that a different, non-quarterback player will fall to them at the sixth pick. Again, Maccagnan said, "The other thing at six, you might have someone slide through there to that pick to where other teams might want to trade up for that pick. So we're kind of in a nice spot." The Jets have been connected to edge rushers like Dante Fowler, Shane Ray and Vic Beasley in a number of recent mock drafts, and Mariota going off the board and second, third or fifth makes it that much more likely one of that trio drops to the Jets. With their secondary upgrades and strong defensive line, a fearsome pass-rusher would give the Jets an even more complete defense for Bowles to work with. This reading would also align with Bowles' comments at the owners meetings that you don't need a franchise quarterback to win.
There's no telling which of those readings is correct until we see how draft day plays out, and even then, we still might not know because the Titans (or Bucs) could just take Mariota and render the whole thing moot. Either way, you know it's draft season when teams are publicly giving confusing statements that could be read in a multitude of ways in order to create leverage and confusion.
