On Friday evening, the Denver Nuggets look to build off an impressive Game 3 performance. Led by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat by a 15-point margin on Wednesday. That victory gave Denver a 2-1 lead in the 2023 NBA Finals. The Heat aim to even the series at home in Game 4 on Friday, with all eyes on Kaseya Center in Miami.

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as 3-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 211.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Nuggets picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

  • Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Nuggets -3
  • Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 211.5 points
  • Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Nuggets -145, Heat +122
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 24-25 against the spread in road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 21-29-2 against the spread in home games
  • Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver's overall approach is geared around a truly elite offense. The Nuggets lead the 2023 NBA playoffs in offensive efficiency and, with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray operating at a tremendous level, Denver is difficult to defend. The Nuggets are also making progress on defense, however, and that extends beyond this series. Denver is allowing only 111.4 points per 100 possessions in the full postseason, securing well over 76% of available defensive rebounds and generally avoiding mistakes.

The Nuggets have been even better against the Heat, giving up only 1.10 points per possession through three games. Miami has an ugly 52.5% true shooting mark in the series, averaging only 8.7 second-chance points and 6.7 fast break points per game. The Nuggets are grabbing more than 75% of defensive rebounds, and Miami has been unable to get to the free throw line. The Heat are averaging only 13.7 free throw attempts per game, and Denver's ability to wall off the paint has been a key to the team's success. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Bam Adebayo has been the centerpiece of Miami's approach in the series, averaging 23.0 points and 13.0 rebounds per game with more than three assists for every turnover. The Heat are committing only 7.7 turnovers per game in the series while making 85.4% of free throw attempts, and Miami is also No. 1 in the playoffs with 38.8% 3-point shooting over a growing sample. However, Adebayo is also the team's defensive anchor, and Miami is tremendous on that end of the floor. 

The Heat finished in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive rating (112.8) during the regular season. They also landed in the top four of the league in free throw prevention, turnover creation, defensive rebounding, fast break points allowed, and points allowed in the paint. Miami is also holding opponents to just 32.5% 3-point shooting and 23.1 assists per game in the playoffs, with the Heat creating the havoc needed to generate 18.7 points per game off turnovers. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.