The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets link up for Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Friday night. On Wednesday, the Nuggets recorded a 109-94 victory over the Heat. Denver has seemed to find its groove on the road, winning four straight games away from home. On the other side, Miami has dropped three home games in a row after starting 6-0 in the playoffs. 

The game from Kaseya Center in Miami will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 211. Before making any Heat vs. Nuggets picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 164 NBA picks, he is 106-57-1 against the spread, returning $3,379 for $100 players. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Nuggets vs. Heat and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Denver -3.5
  • Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 211 points
  • Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Denver -165, Miami +140
  • MIA: The Heat are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS loss
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games
  • Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover

Forward Bruce Brown brings tremendous energy and effort off the bench. Brown plays gritty defense, rebounds well, and can knock down shots on the outside. The Miami product is putting up 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game during the postseason. He's amassed double-digit outings in seven of his last nine games. On June 4, Brown notched 11 points, five boards, and two steals.

Guard Jamal Murray has been consistently torching teams throughout the postseason. Murray is a lights-out shooter with the ability to score off the dribble and as a catch-and-shoot weapon. The Kentucky product has scored at least 30 points in four of the last seven games. In Wednesday's victory over the Heat, Murray logged a triple-double with 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. See which team to pick here

Why the Heat can cover

Guard Gabe Vincent is a smooth-scoring threat in the backcourt. Vincent has a nice jumper on the perimeter with solid court vision as a facilitator. The 26-year-old is third on the team in points (13.6) along with 3.7 assists per game in the playoffs. Additionally, he's shooting 40% from downtown. In Miami's Game 2 victory, Martin finished with 23 points and made four 3-pointers.

There are a few snipers on the outside for this group. Guard Duncan Robinson excels at moving without the ball to create separation from defenders. He's averaging 9.0 points while making 44% of his 3-pointers. In Game 2, he totaled 10 points and made two 3-pointers. Guard Max Strus is also a sharpshooter. Strus thrives as a catch-and-shoot option. He has scored in double figures with at least two 3-pointers in two of his last five outings. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Severance is leaning Under on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Nuggets vs. Heat, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the expert who has returned $3,379 to $100 players over his last 164 NBA picks, and find out.