The 2021 NFL season may barely be in the books, but Dave Richard is already getting a jump on his 2022 preparation by highlighting at least one key statistic to know for each NFL team that had a major bearing on their 2021 performance and could mean a great deal for their 2022 outlook. In this space, Dave dives into the New York Jets.
New York Jets stats to know
To trust a Jets pass catcher in Fantasy Football this year means trusting Zach Wilson. That might be hard to do. Wilson played every snap in 12 games as a rookie, leaving early in Week 7 and missing four other matchups. The Fantasy production in those 12 games wasn't nearly as good as in the other five he barely/didn't participate in.
12 Jets games with Wilson
- RB with 13-plus PPR three times
- WR with 14-plus PPR seven times
- TE with nine PPR in one time
Five Jets games without Wilson
- RB with 15-plus PPR four times (three by Michael Carter)
- WR with 13-plus PPR six times (three by Elijah Moore)
- TE with 10-plus PPR two times
The top of the Jets' offseason wish list has to be improving Zach Wilson's game. He ranked second behind fellow rookie Justin Fields in highest off-target passing rate with 15.4%. His passing EPA was -0.22, third-worst among passers with at least 100 attempts behind Cam Newton and Mike Glennon. Having fewer passing touchdowns (nine for Wilson) than interceptions (11) is never a good thing.
This particularly brings me to the guy who will be everyone's favorite breakout, Elijah Moore. It is concerning that his efficiency was much better when he caught passes from anyone but Wilson.
- Moore with Wilson (seven games): 11.4% target share, 45.2% catch rate, 50% catchable ball rate, 12.8 average depth of target, 26.3% of receptions gained 16-plus yards, three end-zone targets
- Moore without Wilson (four games): 16.4% target share, 68.6% catch rate, 68.6% catchable ball rate, 10.4 average depth of target, 33.3% of receptions gained 16-plus yards, one end-zone target
Ugly. But if you paid attention to the Jets, you knew Moore put up good numbers when Wilson came back from his knee injury. Did that translate into good efficiency that may forebode future success?
- Moore with Wilson (last two games vs. HOU, PHI): 33.9% target share, 50% catch rate, 55% catchable ball rate, 12.6 average depth of target, 40% of receptions gained 16-plus yards, three end-zone targets
Gotta love it. The natural correlation between good quarterback play and Fantasy receivers looms large here. It would obviously help if we are encouraged by any progress Wilson makes in training camp. If Wilson looks good, that obviously helps his receivers and further makes a compelling case for Moore to be worth a top-50 pick. But short of that, Moore carries a lot of risk on Draft Day, not because of his own talent but because the offense he's in won't maximize his numbers.