One of my favorite things about my tiering process, where I tier by value and not by archetype, is when two players end up in the same tier and it seemingly makes no sense at all, because they are so dissimilar. Two glaring instances of that in the wide receiver tiers below come in Tier 5 (Chris Godwin and Skyy Moore) and Tier 6 (Kadarius Toney and DeAndre Hopkins).
I'll start with the one that is easiest to understand, Hopkins and Toney. While Hopkins could still have top-12 upside he'll turn 31 years old in June, his team has been trying to move him all offseason, and his quarterback currently has a "long way to go" in his rehab of an ACL injury. At Hopkins' age, he's just one injury away from his value completely disappearing.
Toney, on the other hand, is still just 24 years old and has been getting hyped all offseason as the potential WR1 for Patrick Mahomes. There aren't a lot of receivers with 591 yards in their first two seasons who turn into good NFL players, in fact, you may have to go all the way back to Santana Moss to find a positive example, but the upside alone puts Toney in this tier. I think most people get that, I don't believe many will get why Godwin and Moore are in the same tier.
For one thing, I think it's pretty close to a coin flip whether Moore or Toney is better this year. Moore is still just 22 years old and came into the NFL very inexperienced at the wide receiver position. Learning how to play the position in the NFL and learning Andy Reid's offense is just too much to ask from a rookie WR, so I'm not really holding it against him. I expect him to be ramped up for Year 2, competing with Toney and Rashee Rice for WR1 duties in this offense. Still, Moore has done nothing in the NFL. How is he in the same tier as Godwin?
Mostly, I am terrified of how different things are about to be in Tampa Bay.
Godwin's main Fantasy value for the past two seasons has been volume. His yards per catch, yards per target, and touchdown rate are all pretty mediocre-to-bad. But he's averaged 158 targets per 17 games, so we're okay with that. The problem is that those targets have come on a team that has averaged 741 pass attempts per season. With a defensive head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at QB, I do not see much reason to expect the Buccaneers to throw more than the league median from 2022, which was 571 attempts. That would be a 23% reduction in pass volume.
In 2021 Godwin finished the year WR7 per game with 17.6 FPPG. A 23% reduction would have put him at 13.5 FPPG, or tied with Amari Cooper for WR29. Last year Godwin was WR17 at 15.0 FPPG. A 23% reduction would have put him at 11.6 FPPG, tied with Gabe Davis for WR36. And these numbers are presuming Godwin is able to maintain his efficiency with a QB change from Tom Brady to Mayfield or Trask.
It's possible I should have some sort of talent multiplier that boosts Godwin in the rankings. But the nuts and bolts of it is that if you have a 27-year-old WR who projects as a mid-WR3 this year and has an uncertain team/QB future beyond that, that guy is not going to grade very well in my rankings. The perception of Godwin is still much higher on him than I am, so if you agree with me, it's a great time to sell. You can get a lot more than Skyy Moore for him.
Here are my updated Dynasty WR tiers: