I've been a little bit slow to come around on Trey Lance. His lack of college experience and the low level of competition he faced worried me. And I still don't have a great feel for what his floor is. But what little we've seen of him as a passer has reminded me how good Kyle Shanahan has been at manufacturing above-average passing efficiency from non-elite quarterbacks. And while that's not enough for me to choose him over Jalen Hurts (that's a different article), it was enough to move him up into the top 10 in my most recent Dynasty quarterbacks rankings.
What do I mean by Shanahan's ability to manufacture above-average efficiency? Last year, his 49ers led the NFL at 7.7 NY/A (net yards per attempt). The Rams were second, nearly half a yard behind. That was with a combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Lance. The year before Shanahan's 49ers were only 13th, with 10 games of Nick Mullens and two games of C.J. Beathard. In 2019 they were third (Garoppolo played 16 games) and in 2018 they were again slightly above average with a mixture of backup quarterbacks.
In other words, unless Lance is worse than Mullens and Beathard as a passer, he shouldn't be a negative in that regard. And if he's even average as a passer, his rushing potential gives him top-five upside just like Hurts.
We don't know how much Shanahan will turn Lance loose as a rusher in 2022, but in two and a half games in 2021, he ran 31 times for 161 yards. That's a 1,095-yard pace over 17 games. Give him Nick Mullens' production as a passer in San Francisco and that's a top-five quarterback if the touchdowns are there.
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So Lance moved into the top 10, ahead of Justin Fields for the first time. We'll see if Fields can make the leap, too.
Here are my updated Dynasty quarterback rankings: