After a scorching-hot 11 games to push his PPR average to an other-worldly 28.5, CeeDee Lamb is the consensus top Fantasy wide receiver in the rankings provided by Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings and me.
That doesn't mean it's going to stay that way.
A case could be made for Tyreek Hill to be the top receiver. Or Justin Jefferson. Or even Ja'Marr Chase. Those three receivers trail Lamb in some order in our initial run of PPR rankings, with Amon-Ra St. Brown in that mix in mine (St. Brown is a clear fifth for Eisenberg and Cummings). How the rest of the offseason shakes out will go a long way in determining how we view these elite receivers.
As usual, the goal with taking any wideout early is to get a stud who will command double-digit targets every week. Said stud should also have the upside to break big plays and be a factor in the red zone. Anyone who can't check these boxes shouldn't be considered to be the WR1.
So if these are the consensus top-five receivers, then those ranked right behind them should at least have the potential to be a top-five receiver by the end of the 2024 season. That doesn't seem like a tough case to make for A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua and Garrett Wilson. All of the CBS Sports Fantasy analysts have those three names in some order at sixth, seventh and eighth overall. Not surprisingly, all three WRs saw at least 9.3 targets per game in 2023, all three have explosive traits and all three have red-zone potential. The only one not to consistently realize his upside is Wilson, but that can be traced back to the poor quarterback play he suffered for nearly all of 2023 and parts of 2022.
Hope you enjoyed the trip through the first eight slots in our consensus rankings because starting at ninth overall there's anything but consensus. Not one receiver's name appears in all three of our rankings between ninth and 14th overall, and an astounding 10 different wideouts make up at least part of one analyst's top-12.
While fascinating, this is probably an area every Fantasy drafter needs to focus on. Who belongs in this tier and who doesn't?
We can start with the average of our three PPR rankings. Nico Collins is ninth, Stefon Diggs is 10th, Chris Olave is 11th and Michael Pittman is 12th. That just means that the three analysts have these guys cumulatively higher than anyone else not already named.
Then we can look for the three traits we want from elite receivers -- double-digit targets, big-play ability and red-zone effectiveness. None from Collins, Diggs, Olave nor Pittman have all three of these, but they all have two (unless you think 2023 was a fluke for Collins, or 2023 was NOT a fluke for Diggs).
I would encourage Fantasy managers to use context for all four receivers.
- Pittman scored the most Fantasy points on a per-game basis last year but was helped by a 28.5% target per route run rate with Gardner Minshew compared to just 23.4% with Anthony Richardson. Pair that with Indianapolis' likely run-first approach with Richardson and Pittman, who was already an end-zone liability (four touchdowns), could be a little light in the reception department.
- Diggs was light on receptions last year; his target share with Joe Brady calling plays (8.3) was essentially two targets per game less than that with Ken Dorsey (10.2). Unless the bounce-back to 10 targets is in play, Diggs won't be as popular as he had been. He scored eight times.
- Olave averaged 8.6 targets per game and was steadily around there all season until Week 17. He had the fewest red-zone targets and the second-fewest touchdowns but had the highest Average Depth of Target and the second-highest explosive play rate.
- Collins' target per game average was a mere 7.3, and only boosted after Tank Dell was lost for the season (9.2 targets per game over five matchups including the playoffs where C.J. Stroud played the whole game). However, he had a monstrous 28.4% explosive play rate and was tied with Olave and Diggs with 10 end-zone targets.
I think Olave has the most upside heading into his third year, followed by (for now) Collins and Diggs. That's why all three are in my top-12. Interestingly enough, none of those three are in Cummings' top-12.
If those names don't get you excited, wideouts like Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith all have one appearance in someone's top-12 rankings.
By now, you should get the gist -- there's no consensus on WRs after the first eight or so.
Don't take this as bad news -- you just read 10 names who are in the mix to be top-12 receivers. Most of those names will make it into the No. 2 receiver range, fortifying the group with good value when (not if) said receivers are taken off the board as late as the 18th at the position. That could be Round 3. If anything, assume that the dropoff from the ninth to the 18th receiver off the board isn't that drastic.
And I still haven't brought up D.J. Moore, Mike Evans or Tank Dell. Those three are in all of the analysts' top-24 rankings at wideout.
And at some point, names like Cooper Kupp, Tee Higgins, Drake London and Keenan Allen are going to make sense as start-worthy Fantasy receivers. At least one analyst does not have each of those names in his top-24.
The lack of consensus from ninth on down underscores just how important draft preparation will be in the coming months. The stronger case you can make for a receiver, the more emboldened you should be to draft him.
