Editor's Note: This is the final edition of a five-part series that dives deep into NFL quarterbacks making sudden, massive improvement, which we've dubbed "Quarterback Leap Week." Here's what's been published so far:
- History of the quarterback leap and who made it in 2023
- Bryce Young and Caleb Williams can take leap in 2024
- Justin Herbert set to take leap with new head coach, Jim Harbaugh
- Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes set to take off with improved wide receiver rooms
Trading for veteran quarterbacks was the obvious play for NFL teams in 2022, after the Buccaneers and Rams had won Super Bowls in their first seasons with Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, respectively.
So of course it completely backfired in 2023 for the teams who acquired Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson. All five quarterbacks ranked 28th or worse in EPA per play among 38 quarterbacks with 200+ action plays last season.
Mayfield got redemption in 2023, posting career-highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) in his first season with the Buccaneers. The impressive comeback season earned him a new contract (three years worth up to $100 million) and should give hope to veterans in new places in 2024.
This group will also seek to follow in the footsteps of some of the greatest leaps by veteran quarterbacks in their first season with a new team.
Drew Bledsoe shook off his infamous injury with the Patriots in 2001 to produce with the Bills in 2002. Drew Brees burst onto the scene with New Orleans in 2006. Brett Favre nearly reached the Super Bowl with Minnesota in 2009. Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly led the Jets to the playoffs in 2015. "Fitzmagic" is still the only player in Jets history with 30 touchdown passes in a season. Case Keenum led the Vikings to a 13-3 record in 2017 out of seemingly nowhere. Ryan Tannehill led the NFL in passer rating and brought the Titans to an AFC Championship game in 2019.
Quarterbacks to make leap in first year with new team since 2000
- 2023 Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers): career-high 4,044 pass yards and 28 Pass TD (won playoff game)
- 2021 Matthew Stafford (Rams): Won Super Bowl (4,886 Pass yards & 41 Pass TD in regular season)
- 2020 Tom Brady (Buccaneers): Won Super Bowl (40 Pass TD after 24 in final season with Patriots)
- 2019 Ryan Tannehill (Titans): Reached AFC title game and led NFL in yards per attempt and passer rating
- 2017 Case Keenum (Vikings): 11-3 record, 22 Pass TD and 7 Int with Vikings
- 2015 Tyrod Taylor (Bills): 20 Pass TD, 6 Int and 568 Rush yards in 13 starts
- 2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets): 10-6 record and franchise-record 31 Pass TD
- 2009 Brett Favre (Vikings): Reached NFC Championship and received MVP vote at age 40 (33 Pass TD and 7 Int)
- 2008 Chad Pennington (Dolphins): Led NFL in Comp pct and won AFC East title
- 2006 Drew Brees (Saints): Led NFL in Pass yards and won playoff game
- 2003 Jake Plummer (Broncos): 9-2 record, 15 Pass TD and 7 Int
- 2002 Drew Bledsoe (Bills): Franchise-record 4,359 Pass yards (at the time)
I'm including Aaron Rodgers on the list of veteran quarterbacks in new places that could take a leap in 2024. Rodgers played four snaps last year so a mulligan seems fair for this exercise. Other candidates include Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Gardner Minshew and Sam Darnold:
Aaron Rodgers with Jets (likely)
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We're about to get a big case study on veteran quarterbacks returning from torn Achilles between Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. I'm going to double down on my prediction from last year and say Rodgers will take a leap from his final season with the Packers. A torn Achilles didn't slow down Kevin Durant and it's not going to slow down Rodgers, even at age 40. It's getting tough to ignore all the noise off the field, but there's still too many positives to deny Rodgers and the Jets. He will play with a top-10 defense, a WR1 in Garrett Wilson, plus reunite with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Let's not forget New York added wideouts Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley, too. Additionally, the Jets offensive line has improved after it was the team's biggest hole (outside of quarterback) last year. It's a much better overall situation than his last year in Green Bay, so let's see if he can stay healthy in 2024.
Russell Wilson with Steelers (maybe)
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I wrote last month about how I expect the Steelers offense to take a step forward with Russell Wilson entering 2024 as the favorite over Justin Fields for their starting quarterback job. How could they not improve in the post-Kenny Pickett/Matt Canada era? Russell Wilson says he feels 'revived' with Pittsburgh after a disappointing stretch in Denver where he ranked 23rd in EPA per play last year. There's definitely some interesting parallels between his early Seahawks days and what Pittsburgh's offense could look like with Arthur Smith. They should be a smashmouth team with great defense and the chance for explosive plays from Wilson to George Pickens. I still think it's more likely we see Wilson repeat last year's performance as an average to below-average starter as he enters his 13th season.
Kirk Cousins with Falcons (unlikely)
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Cousins was top 10 in the NFL in EPA per play, touchdown passes and passing yards before tearing his Achilles in Week 8 last year. I think it's safe to say he's not going to elevate from a top-10 passer to an MVP contender going from the Vikings to the Falcons. Atlanta should certainly take a leap going from Ridder to Cousins, but Cousins is taking a step down in offensive infrastructure, albeit a small one. I like Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but there's only one Justin Jefferson.
Gardner Minshew with Raiders (unlikely)
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Gardner Minshew was a Pro Bowl selection in 2023. Not a typo. It comes with an asterisk after he was a replacement for Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. It's not egregious like Tyler Huntley's 2022 selection when he started four games, but Minshew certainly wasn't a Pro Bowl-caliber player in 2023. He was an average starter, ranking 18th in EPA per play while leading the Colts within a win of a playoff berth.
That seems like the ceiling for Minshew again in 2024 if he wins the starting quarterback competition with Aidan O'Connell in Las Vegas. It's not impossible for Minshew to have a career season. Look at Case Keenum with the Vikings or Ryan Fitzpatrick with the Jets. He will have Davante Adams and Brock Bowers to throw the ball to, but it's still a longshot.
Sam Darnold with Vikings (unlikely)
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I want to say Sam Darnold can take a leap in Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell at head coach, coupled with an array of offensive weapons that includes Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. He has the talent to do so, but it's unrealistic to expect Darnold to hold down the starting job. The pressure will be immense to play J.J. McCarthy, especially when Darnold starts turning the ball over. He has the highest turnover rate of any quarterback with at least 1,500 pass attempts since 2018. Also, consider that quarterbacks drafted in the first round average 10 starts as rookies in the last decade. In that same span, 17 of 22 quarterbacks selected in the top 10 started at least 10 games as rookies.
That's a wrap on 'Quarterback Leap Week.' The rich tradition of quarterback leaps should continue in 2024, featuring plenty of candidates with opportunities to develop, or improve with new coaches, teammates or even area codes.
If you were reading 'Quarterback Leap Week' all week, I'm picking six quarterbacks to take a big step forward in 2024 for a variety of reasons. Aaron Rodgers (new team, basically), Patrick Mahomes (better wide receiver room), Kyler Murray (better wide receiver room), Justin Herbert (new head coach), Bryce Young (development) and Caleb Williams (historic rookie year incoming).
