Any given Sunday, they say, and the 2023 NFL playoffs have proven just that: since Super Wild Card Weekend, we've seen the Jaguars overcome a 27-point deficit to beat the Chargers, the Giants travel to Minnesota and win a shootout with the Vikings, the 49ers withstand the Cowboys' pass rush in a nail-biter, and the Bengals rout the Bills in snowy Buffalo. You just never quite know exactly what you're gonna get, which makes today's AFC and NFC championships all the more enticing.
As we do every week, we've collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let's jump in.
Bengals at Chiefs
Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 48
SportsLine expert bets: R.J. White is the king of ATS NFL picks, ranking No. 1 in that category among SportsLine experts over the last half-decade, returning more than $2,500 to $100 players. He's also 49-32-2 (+1354) on his last 83 picks involving the Bengals. We can tell you he's leaning Over on the total, but you can find his full breakdown of the matchup right here.
"Patrick Mahomes' mobility will matter against a Bengals defense that has so many moving parts and can blitz from all over. They've done a great job against him late in games in the past three times they've played. The Jaguars didn't come after Mahomes enough after he hurt his ankle, but you can bet the Bengals will, even though that's not the strategy they used to beat him in the title game last year. ... Burrow seems to relish the big moments. I expect him to play well here, while Mahomes' limited mobility will be in play. Again, that matters and it's why the Bengals will be going to their second straight Super Bowl." -- CBS Sports senior NFL writer Pete Prisco
"Take the Mahomes situation out of it. Say he is himself. I still see this as a game played around 27-24, with the Bengals getting the lean from me. They have the secret sauce to make Mahomes and Andy Reid seem all too human human. It's been a struggle for the Chiefs to keep their offense rolling against this team, and the Bengals have beat them in the fourth quarter of all three games they have played over the last three years. They did it when it was a must to spy Mahomes, mush-rush him and worry about him scampering for 13 yards on third-and-12. Now, they aren't going to have to worry nearly as much as that outside-the-pocket, spin-around-and-run element that has been so vital to the Chiefs' offense in these big spots." -- NFL insider Jason La Canfora
"If Mahomes isn't healthy enough to move around, that's going to create a lot of issues for Chiefs. I mean, he's struggled against the Bengals when he's healthy, so it's hard to see him doing much better when he's not healthy. The last time we saw Mahomes try to play in a big game with an injury came in Super Bowl LV and we all know how that turned out (if you don't remember how that turned out, that's the Super Bowl where the Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers 31-9 in a game where Mahomes threw two picks while also getting sacked three times). ... Since 2014, there have been a total of 13 AFC or NFC title games that have been rematches from the regular season and in those 13 games, the team that won during the regular season has gone 10-3 in the title game rematch. Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes. Also, Burrow has never lost in January (7-0), he's never lost a road playoff game (3-0) and I think we all know where I'm going with this pick." -- CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech
"Beyond the injury to Mahomes, the Bengals defense shouldn't be slept on. Yes, Joe Burrow should get his and continue to find success against Kansas City's defense, but his defensive group has a knack for shutting the door on opponents. This postseason, the Bengals have allowed zero fourth-quarter points. And that's no fluke. The Bengals ranked second in the NFL in the fewest fourth-quarter points allowed during the year. Translation: if you find yourself trailing the Bengals heading into the fourth quarter, you're toast. Offensively, I do think the Bengals can exploit a mediocre run defense of the Chiefs as well, which means another strong day from Joe Mixon. The Chiefs allowed 7.6 yards per carry in the divisional round against Jacksonville, meaning their middle-of-the-pack run defense has lost its way." -- CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan